Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets

We investigate the economic factors that drive electricity risk premia in the European emissions constrained economy. Our analysis is undertaken for monthly baseload electricity futures for delivery in the Nordic, French and British power markets. We find that electricity risk premia are significantly related to the volatility of electricity spot prices, demand and revenues, and the price volatility of the carbon dioxide (CO2) futures traded under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This finding has significant implications for the pricing of electricity futures since it highlights for the first time the role of carbon market uncertainties as a main determinant of the relationship between spot and futures electricity prices in Europe. Our results also suggest that for the electricity markets under scrutiny futures prices are determined rationally by risk-averse economic agents

Local Guarantees in Graph Cuts and Clustering

Correlation Clustering is an elegant model that captures fundamental graph cut problems such as Min $s-t$ Cut, Multiway Cut, and Multicut, extensively studied in combinatorial optimization. Here, we are given a graph with edges labeled $+$ or $-$ and the goal is to produce a clustering that agrees with the labels as much as possible: $+$ edges within clusters and $-$ edges across clusters. The classical approach towards Correlation Clustering (and other graph cut problems) is to optimize a global objective. We depart from this and study local objectives: minimizing the maximum number of disagreements for edges incident on a single node, and the analogous max min agreements objective. This naturally gives rise to a family of basic min-max graph cut problems. A prototypical representative is Min Max $s-t$ Cut: find an $s-t$ cut minimizing the largest number of cut edges incident on any node. We present the following results: $(1)$ an $O(\sqrt{n})$-approximation for the problem of minimizing the maximum total weight of disagreement edges incident on any node (thus providing the first known approximation for the above family of min-max graph cut problems), $(2)$ a remarkably simple $7$-approximation for minimizing local disagreements in complete graphs (improving upon the previous best known approximation of $48$), and $(3)$ a $1/(2+\varepsilon)$-approximation for maximizing the minimum total weight of agreement edges incident on any node, hence improving upon the $1/(4+\varepsilon)$-approximation that follows from the study of approximate pure Nash equilibria in cut and party affiliation games

The Comoving Infrared Luminosity Density: Domination of Cold Galaxies across 0<z<1

In this paper we examine the contribution of galaxies with different infrared (IR) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to the comoving infrared luminosity density, a proxy for the comoving star formation rate (SFR) density. We characterise galaxies as having either a cold or hot IR SED depending upon whether the rest-frame wavelength of their peak IR energy output is above or below 90um. Our work is based on a far-IR selected sample both in the local Universe and at high redshift, the former consisting of IRAS 60um-selected galaxies at z<0.07 and the latter of Spitzer 70um selected galaxies across 0.1<z<1. We find that the total IR luminosity densities for each redshift/luminosity bin agree well with results derived from other deep mid/far-IR surveys. At z<0.07 we observe the previously known results: that moderate luminosity galaxies (L_IR<10^11 Lsun) dominate the total luminosity density and that the fraction of cold galaxies decreases with increasing luminosity, becoming negligible at the highest luminosities. Conversely, above z=0.1 we find that luminous IR galaxies (L_IR>10^11 Lsun), the majority of which are cold, dominate the IR luminosity density. We therefore infer that cold galaxies dominate the IR luminosity density across the whole 0<z<1 range, hence appear to be the main driver behind the increase in SFR density up to z~1 whereas local luminous galaxies are not, on the whole, representative of the high redshift population.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Selection of ULIRGs in Infrared and Submm Surveys

We examine the selection characteristics of infrared and sub-mm surveys with IRAS, Spitzer, BLAST, Herschel and SCUBA and identify the range of dust temperatures these surveys are sensitive to, for galaxies in the ULIRG luminosity range (12<log(LIR)<13), between z=0 and z=4. We find that the extent of the redshift range over which surveys are unbiased is a function of the wavelength of selection, flux density limit and ULIRG luminosity. Short wavelength (<200{\mu}m) surveys with IRAS, Spitzer/MIPS and Herschel/PACS are sensitive to all SED types in a large temperature interval (17-87K), over a substantial fraction of their accessible redshift range. On the other hand, long wavelength (>200{\mu}m) surveys with BLAST, Herschel/ SPIRE and SCUBA are significantly more sensitive to cold ULIRGs, disfavouring warmer SEDs even at low redshifts. We evaluate observations in the context of survey selection effects, finding that the lack of cold ULIRGs in the local (z<0.1) Universe is not a consequence of selection and that the range of ULIRG temperatures seen locally is only a subset of a much larger range which exists at high redshift. We demonstrate that the local luminosity-temperature (L-T) relation, which indicates that more luminous sources are also hotter, is not applicable in the distant Universe when extrapolated to the ULIRG regime, because the scatter in observed temperatures is too large. Finally, we show that the difference between the ULIRG temperature distributions locally and at high redshift is not the result of galaxies becoming colder due to an L-T relation which evolves as a function of redshift. Instead, they are consistent with a picture where the evolution of the infrared luminosity function is temperature dependent, i.e. cold galaxies evolve at a faster rate than their warm counterparts.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

AEGIS: Infrared Spectral Energy Distributions of MIPS 70micron selected sources

We present 0.5 -160 micron Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs) of galaxies, detected at 70microns with the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS), using broadband imaging data from Spitzer and ground-based telescopes. Spectroscopic redshifts, in the range 0.2<z<1.5, have been measured as part of the Deep Extragalactic Evolutionary Probe2 (DEEP2) project. Based on the SEDs we explore the nature and physical properties of the sources. Using the optical spectra we derive Hbeta and [OII]-based Star Formation Rates (SFR) which are 10-100 times lower than SFR estimates based on IR and radio. The median offset in SFR between optical and IR is reduced by a factor of ~3 when we apply a typical extinction corrections. We investigate mid-to-far infrared correlations for low redshift (>0.5) and high redshift (0.5<z<1.2) bins. Using this unique ``far-infrared'' selected sample we derive an empirical mid to far-infrared relationship that can be used to estimate the infrared energy budget of galaxies in the high-redshift universe. Our sample can be used as a template to translate far-infrared luminosities into bolometric luminosities for high redshift objects.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in AEGIS ApJL Special Issu

The link between SCUBA and Spitzer: cold galaxies at z lt 1

We show that the far-IR properties of distant Luminous and UltraLuminous InfraRed Galaxies (LIRGs and ULIRGs, respectively) are on average divergent from analogous sources in the local Universe. Our analysis is based on Spitzer Multiband Imaging Photometer (MIPS) and Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) data of LIR > 1010 L⊙, 70 μm selected objects in the 0.1 1 SubMillimetre Galaxies (SMGs) discovered in blank-field submillimetre surveys. The Herschel Space Observatory is well placed to fully characterize the nature of these objects, as its coverage extends over a major part of the far-IR/sub-mm SED for a wide redshift range

Characterizing the radio continuum emission from intense starburst galaxies

© 2016 The Authors Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.The intrinsic thermal (free-free) and non-thermal (synchrotron) emission components that comprise the radio continuum of galaxies represent unique, dust-free measures of star formation rates (SFR). Such high SFR galaxies will dominate the deepest current and future radio surveys. We disentangle the thermal and non-thermal emission components of the radio continuum of six ultraluminous infrared galaxies (LFIR &gt; 1012.5 L?) at redshifts of 0.2 = z = 0.5 and 22 IR selected galaxies. Radio data over a wide frequency range (0.8 &lt; ? &lt;10 GHz) are fitted with a star-forming galaxy model comprising of thermal and non-thermal components. The luminosities of both radio continuum components are strongly correlated to the 60 µm luminosity across many orders of magnitude (consistent with the far-IR to radio correlation). We demonstrate that the spectral index of the radio continuum spectral energy distribution is a useful proxy for the thermal fraction. We also find that there is an increase in mean and scatter of the thermal fraction with FIR to radio luminosity ratio which could be influenced by different time-scales of the thermal and non-thermal emission mechanisms