Target trial emulation: teaching epidemiology and beyond

Observational epidemiology is continually held to thestandard of randomized trials. A typical epidemiology article references previous trials in the introduction (or reasons why trials are not feasible) and, when possible, compares the results to previous trials in the discussion. When the results from an observational study and trial disagree, we nearly always begin by questioning the former. Curiously, the methods section of an observational study — an undeniably crucial part of an article — rarely references trial methods or designs. Explicit target trial emulation aims to remedy this

Firearm access and adolescent suicide risk: Toward a clearer understanding of effect size

Background: Strong and consistent associations between access to firearms and suicide have been found in ecologic and individual-level observational studies. For adolescents, a seminal case-control study estimated that living in a home with (vs without) a firearm was associated with a fourfold increase in the risk of death by suicide. Methods: We use data from a nationally representative study of 10 123 US adolescents aged 13-18 years to (1) measure how much adolescents who live in a home with a firearm differ from those who do not in ways related to their risk of suicide, and (2) incorporate these differences into an updated effect estimate of the risk of adolescent suicide attributable to living in a home with firearms. Results: Almost one-third (30.7%) of adolescents reported living in a home with firearms. Relative to those who did not, adolescents reporting living in a home with a firearm were slightly more likely to be male, older and reside in the South and rural areas, but few differences were identified for mental health characteristics. The effect size found by Brent and colleagues appeared robust to sources of possible residual confounding: updated relative risks remained above 4.0 across most sensitivity analyses and at least 3.1 in even the most conservative estimates. Conclusions: Although unmeasured confounding and other biases may nonetheless remain, our updated estimates reinforce the suggestion that adolescents' risk of suicide was increased threefold to fourfold if they had lived in homes with a firearm compared with if they had not

Application of the Instrumental Inequalities to a Mendelian Randomization Study With Multiple Proposed Instruments

BACKGROUND: Investigators often support the validity of Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, an instrumental variable approach proposing genetic variants as instruments, via. subject matter knowledge. However, the instrumental variable model implies certain inequalities, offering an empirical method of falsifying (but not verifying) the underlying assumptions. Although these inequalities are said to detect only extreme assumptio

Causal null hypotheses of sustained treatment strategies: What can be tested with an instrumental variable?

Sometimes instrumental variable methods are used to test whether a causal effect is null rather than to estimate the magnitude of a causal effect. However, when instrumental variable methods are applied to time-varying exposures, as in many Mendelian randomization studies, it is unclear what causal null hypothesis is tested. Here, we consider different ver

Partial Identification of the Average Treatment Effect Using Instrumental Variables: Review of Methods for Binary Instruments, Treatments, and Outcomes

Several methods have been proposed for partially or point identifying the average treatment effect (ATE) using instrumental variable (IV) type assumptions. The descriptions of these methods are widespread across the statistical, economic, epidemiologic, and computer science literature, and the connections between the methods have not been readily apparent. In the setting of a binary instrument, treatment, and outcome, we review proposed methods for partial and point identification of the ATE under IV assumptions, express the identification results in a common notation and terminology, and propose a taxonomy that is based on sets of identifying assumptions. We further demonstrate and provide software for the application of these methods to estimate bounds. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Hypothetical blood-pressure-lowering interventions and risk of stroke and dementia

We aimed to study the effects of hypothetical interventions on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and smoking on risk of stroke and dementia using data from 15 years of follow-up in the Rotterdam Study. We used data from 4930 individuals, aged 55–80 years, with no prior history of stroke, dementia or cognitive impairment, followed for 15 years within the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort. We defined the following sustained interventions on SBP: (1) maintaining SBP below 120 mmHg, (2) maintaining SBP below 140 mmHg, (3) reducing SBP by 10% if above 140 mmHg, (4) reducing SBP by 20% if above 140 mmHg, and a combined intervention of quitting smoking with each of these SBP-lowering strategies. We considered incident stroke and incident dementia diagnoses as outcomes. We applied the parametric g-formula to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounding. The observed 15-year risk for stroke was 10.7%. Compared to no specified intervention (i.e., the “natural course”), all interventions that involved reducing SBP were associated with a stroke risk reduction of about 10% (e.g., reducing SBP by 20% if above 140 mmHg risk ratio: 0.89; 95% CI 0.76, 1). Jointly

Prenatal exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children

___Purpose:___ Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are commonly used during pregnancy. Findings that prenatal NSAID exposure may affect offspring neurodevelopment have been inconsistent. We investigated the effect of prenatal NSAID exposure on childhood neurodevelopment and explored the susceptibility of our effect estimates to forms of bias via negative exposure, negative outcome, and multi-informant analyses. ___Methods:___ In a cohort of pregnant women (n = 6876), perinatal NSAID use was assessed by prescriptions and self-report. Primary neurodevelopmental outcomes included attention problems using maternal reports at 1½, 3, and 5 years. To explore potential systematic biases, we compared estimates from maternally reported attention problems to a teacher's report and a measure of nonverbal intelligence assessed at a clinic visit at age 6 years; we also used NSAID use before pregnancy and somatic problems as a “negative” exposure and outcome, respectively. ___Results:___ Maternal reports suggested that prenatal exposure to NSAIDs was associated with more attention problems at younger ages (eg, at age 3: mean difference in attention problems score: 0.30; 95% CI 0.12, 0.48). However, no strong association with attention problems was found in the teacher report, and a similarly strong association between prenatal NSAID exposure and somatic complaints suggests residual confounding by indication likely remains. Moreover, prenatal exposure to NSAIDs was not associated with an observed measure of IQ (mean difference in IQ score: −0.32; 95% CI: −1.82, 1.19). ___Conclusions:___ Jointly, our results suggest that the observed associations between prenatal exposure to NSAIDs and child attention problems reflect systematic biases of a null or small effect

Prediction meets causal inference: the role of treatment in clinical prediction models

In this paper we study approaches for dealing with treatment when developing a clinical prediction model. Analogous to the estimand framework recently proposed by the European Medicines Agency for clinical trials, we propose a ‘predictimand’ framework of different questions that may be of interest when predicting risk in relation to treatment started after baseline. We provide a formal definition of the estimands matching these questions, give examples of settings in which each is useful and discuss appropriate estimators including their assumptions. We illustrate the impact of the predictimand choice in a dataset of patients with end-stage kidney disease. We argue that clearly defining the estimand is equally important in prediction research as in causal inference

The mediating role of the venules between smoking and ischemic stroke

A potential mechanism by which smoking affects ischemic stroke is through wider venules, but this mediating role of wider venules has never been quantified. Here, we aimed to estimate to what extent the effect of smoking on ischemic stroke is possibly mediated by the venules via the recently developed four-way effect decomposition. This study was part of a population-based study including 9109 stroke-free persons participated in the study in 1990, 2004, or 2006 (mean age: 63.7 years; 58% women). Smoking behavior (smoking versus non-smoking) was identified by interview. Retinal venular calibers were measured semi-automatically on retinal photographs. Incident strokes were assessed until January 2016. A regression-based approach was used with venular calibers as mediator to decompose the total effect of smoking compared to non-smoking into four components: controlled direct effect (neither mediation nor interaction), pure indirect effect (mediation only), reference interaction effect (interaction only) and mediated interaction effect (both mediation and interaction). During a mean follow-up of 12.5 years, 665 persons suffered an ischemic stroke. Smoking increased the risk of developing ischemic stroke compared to non-smoking with an excess risk of 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.10; 0.67). With retinal venules as a potential mediator, the excess relative risk could be decomposed into 77% controlled direct effect, 4% mediation only, 4% interaction only, and 15% mediated interaction. To conclude, in the pathophysiology of ischemic stroke, the effect of smoking on ischemic stroke may partly explained by changes in the venules, where there is both pure mediation and mediated interaction