Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps

Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. Here stochastic system dynamics modelling (SDM) was implemented to explore water scarcity conditions affecting the stored water and turbined outflows in the Santa Giustina (S. Giustina) reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). The analysis relies on a model chain integrating outputs from climate change simulations into a hydrological model, the output of which was used to test and select statistical models in an SDM for replicating turbined water and stored volume within the S. Giustina dam reservoir. The study aims at simulating future conditions of the S. Giustina reservoir in terms of outflow and volume as well as implementing a set of metrics to analyse volume extreme conditions.Average results on 30-year slices of simulations show that even under the short-term RCP4.5 scenario (2021-2050) future reductions for stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to be severe compared to the 14-year baseline (1999-2004 and 2009-2016; -24.9 % of turbined outflow and -19.9 % of stored volume). Similar reductions are expected also for the long-term RCP8.5 scenario (2041-2070; -26.2 % of turbined outflow and -20.8 % of stored volume), mainly driven by the projected precipitations having a similar but lower trend especially in the last part of the 2041-2070 period. At a monthly level, stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to increase for December to March (outflow only), January to April (volume only) depending on scenarios and up to +32.5 % of stored volume in March for RCP8.5 for 2021-2050. Reductions are persistently occurring for the rest of the year from April to November for turbined outflows (down to -56.3 % in August) and from May to December for stored volume (down to -44.1 % in June). Metrics of frequency, duration and severity of future stored volume values suggest a general increase in terms of low volume below the 10th and 20th percentiles and a decrease of high-volume conditions above the 80th and 90th percentiles. These results point at higher percentage increases in frequency and severity for values below the 10th percentile, while volume values below the 20th percentile are expected to last longer. Above the 90th percentile, values are expected to be less frequent than baseline conditions, while showing smaller severity reductions compared to values above the 80th percentile. These results call for the adoption of adaptation strategies focusing on water demand reductions. Months of expected increases in water availability should be considered periods for water accumulation while preparing for potential persistent reductions of stored water and turbined outflows. This study provides results and methodological insights that can be used for future SDM upscaling to integrate different strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g. hydropower, agriculture and tourism) and prepare for potential multi-risk conditions

Assessment of the effectiveness of a risk-reduction measure on pluvial flooding and economic loss in Eindhoven, the Netherlands

Open Access journalCopyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.12th International Conference on Computing and Control for the Water Industry, CCWI2013Cities are increasingly assessing and reducing pluvial flood risk. Quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of risk-reduction measures is required. We use hydraulic simulation with GIS-based financial analysis to assess the pluvial flood risk for Eindhoven, The Netherlands. Analysis is carried out for four scenarios: two rainfall events, with and without separation of the combined sewer-stormwater network. Flooding statistics show how the risk-reduction measure impacts local flooding. Financial analysis demonstrates the saving resulting from the risk-reduction measure. Expected annual damage is reduced by c.€130,500. City authorities are better equipped in making cost-benefit decisions regarding implementation of pluvial flood risk-reduction measures.EC FP7 project PREPARED: Enabling Chang

Assessing Financial Loss due to Pluvial Flooding and the Efficacy of Risk-Reduction Measures in the Residential Property Sector

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0833-6A novel quantitative risk assessment for residential properties at risk of pluvial flooding in Eindhoven, The Netherlands, is presented. A hydraulic model belonging to Eindhoven was forced with low return period rainfall events (2, 5 and 10-year design rainfalls). Three scenarios were analysed for each event: a baseline and two risk-reduction scenarios. GIS analysis identified areas where risk-reduction measures had the greatest impact. Financial loss calculations were carried out using fixed-threshold and probabilistic approaches. Under fixed-threshold assessment, per-event Expected Annual Damage (EAD) reached €38.2 m, with reductions of up to €454,000 resulting from risk-reduction measures. Present costs of flooding reach €1.43bn when calculated over a 50-year period. All net-present value figures for the risk-reduction measures are negative. Probabilistic assessment yielded EAD values up to more than double those of the fixed-threshold analysis which suggested positive net-present value. To the best of our knowledge, the probabilistic method based on the distribution of doorstep heights has never before been introduced for pluvial flood risk assessment. Although this work suggests poor net-present value of risk-reduction measures, indirect impacts of flooding, damage to infrastructure and the potential impacts of climate change were omitted. This work represents a useful first step in helping Eindhoven prepare for future pluvial flooding. The analysis is based on software and tools already available at the municipality, eliminating the need for software upgrading or training. The approach is generally applicable to similar cities.European Commission Seventh Framework Program (EC FP7

Comparison of DNA histograms by standard flow cytometry and image cytometry on sections in Barrett's adenocarcinoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to compare DNA histograms obtained by standard flow cytometry (FC) and high fidelity image cytometry on sections (ICS) in normal gastrointestinal mucosa and Barrett's adenocarcinoma (BAC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks of 10 normal controls from 10 subjects and 42 BAC tissues from 17 patients were examined. DNA FC was performed using standard techniques and ICS was carried out by Automated Cellular Imaging System (ACIS). DNA ploidy histograms were classified into diploid with peak DNA index (DI) at 0.9–1.1, and aneuploid with peak DI > 1.1. DI values of aneuploid peaks were determined. Additionally, for DNA ICS, heterogeneity index (HI) representing DNA content heterogeneity, and histograms containing cells with DI > G2 were also identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All control samples were diploid by both FC and ICS analyses. In BAC, FC showed diploid peaks in 29%, diploid peaks with additional aneuploid or tetraploid peaks in 57%, and 14% of the samples, respectively. In contrast, ICS showed aneuploid peaks in all the cases with peak DI > 1.25; 37 cases had peak DI between 1.25 and 2.25; and 5 cases had peak DI > 2.25. HI values (mean ± SD) were 11.3 ± 1.1 in controls and 32.4 ± 8.5 in BAC (p < 0.05). Controls had no G2 exceeding cells. However, 19/37 (51%) of the cases with primary peak DI < 2.25 had cells exceeding 9N.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ICS detects DNA aneuploidy in all BAC samples while FC missed the diagnosis of aneuploidy in 29%. In addition, ICS provides more information on HI and G2 exceeding rates.</p

Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies

PIK3CA mutations are common in lobular carcinoma in situ, but are not a biomarker of progression

Sample and data collection were funded by Cancer Research UK. Analysis was funded by Breast Cancer Now, the Rosetrees Trust, Guys & St Thomas’ Charity (CanHelp) and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London

Arqueologia e história indígena no Pantanal

O artigo apresenta uma síntese dos dados arqueológicos sobre o Pantanal e o seu entorno, principalmente em Mato Grosso e Mato Grosso do Sul. Elaborado com base na noção de arqueologia como história indígena de longa duração, o artigo considera as trajetórias de estabelecimento e consolidação territorial da ocupação indígena regional, os processos de formação da configuração etnográfica encontrada pelos europeus e os impactos do colonialismo. O principal objetivo consiste em mostrar que a diversidade cultural característica do cenário etnográfico pantaneiro está associada à dinâmica histórica e cultural da ocupação indígena desde períodos anteriores à chegada dos conquistadores e colonizadores de origem europeia.The article presents an overview of the archaeological data on the Pantanal and its surrounding areas, mainly in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. Prepared based on the notion of archeology as long term indigenous history, the article considers the trajectories of territorial establishment and consolidation of the regional indigenous occupation, the formation processes of ethnographic setting found by Europeans and the impact of colonialism. The main objective is to show that cultural diversity characteristic of the Pantanal ethnographic scenario is associated with historical and cultural dynamics of indigenous occupation from periods prior to the arrival of the conquistadors and settlers of European origin