That Courage is not inconsistent with Caution: Foreign Currency Hedging for Superannuation Funds

Surveys of Australian superannuation funds verify that most international bond holdings, but not equity holdings, are hedged for currency risk. We compare the mean-variance efficiency of this practice with two alternative strategies: a conventional forward hedge; and a selective hedge triggered by the sign of the interest differential. These strategies produce optimal allocations which stochastically dominate the restricted portfolio according to Barrett-Donald (2003) tests. The advantages of alternative hedging strategies remain when the vector of sample mean returns is replaced by forecasts. Selective hedging works best for equities; conventional hedging for bonds. Adding unhedged bonds does not improve outcomescurrency hedging; portfolio allocation; stochastic dominance

Scenario Analysis with Recursive Utility: Dynamic Consumption Plans for Charitable Endowments

We determine optimal consumption paths under a series of returns scenarios for charitable endowments with distinct tastes over investment risk and inter-temporal substitution. Charities typically prefer smooth consumption paths but are investment-risk tolerant. Using a recursive, Kreps-Porteus utility function, we model the optimal disbursement from an infinitely-lived charitable trust, then, allowing a general form for the returns density, we apply stochastic dominance relations to estimate income/substitution effects whereby a change in future returns influences the current consumption rate. The elasticity of intertemporal substitution rather than risk aversion is key: optimal consumption rises or falls as the elasticity diverges from one.recursive utility; stochastic dominance; inter-temporal choice

Information processing and measures of integration: New York, London and Tokyo

Equity markets do not pass all overnight information into prices instantaneously at the opening of trade. The New York market takes up to 30 minutes after the opening time to absorb overnight foreign news, Tokyo takes about 90 minutes, and London about 120 minutes on average. These delays in information absorption are not commercially significant but do have implications for measures of market integration. We adjust intra-daily return series for non-instantaneous news absorption and then use adjusted series to predict opening price variation in three major equity markets. Because the adjusted daytime returns series are uncorrelated, we can accurately measure the size, and identify the sources, of transmissions. Overnight news, as represented by foreign daytime returns, explains 12% of opening price variation (close-open returns) in New York, 14% in Tokyo and 30% in London. For New York and Tokyo, the largest influences come from the market that trades immediately prior (London and New York respectively) whereas opening price variation in London is linked closer with New York than Tokyo. Foreign volatility spillovers are also significant, and subject to asymmetry effects.GARCH; spillover; integration; transmission; efficiency

Discounting and Consumption Over an Uncertain Horizon: Draw-Down Plans for Family Trusts

Individuals, endowments and trusts face uncertain lifetimes. When the planning horizon of an entity is stochastic and Pareto distributed, hyperbolic discounting and time-varying consumption rates are optimal. We derive expressions for the optimal rate of consumption (draw-down) from wealth for family trusts facing positive probabilities of extinction at each generation. Using birth statistics for the UK, we compute family extinction probabilities and show that they are well-approximated by a Pareto distribution, hence family trusts will discount hyperbolically. Numerically optimised consumption paths for family trusts with CRRA preferences are decreasing but always higher than for infinitely-lived trusts.family extinction; hyperbolic discounting; inter-temporal choice

Financialization, Crisis and Commodity Correlation Dynamics

We study bi-variate conditional volatility and correlation dynamics for individual commodity futures and financial assets from May 1990-July 2009 using DSTCC-GARCH (Silvennoinen and Terasvirta 2009). These models allow correlation to vary smoothly between extreme states via transition functions driven by indicators of market conditions. Expected stock volatility and money manager open interest in futures markets are relevant transition variables. Results point to increasing integration between commodities and financial markets. Higher commodity returns volatility is predicted by lower interest rates and corporate bond spreads, US dollar depreciations, higher expected stock volatility and financial traders open positions. We observe higher and more variable correlations between commodity futures and financial asset returns, particularly from mid-sample, often predicted by higher expected stock volatility. For many pairings, we observe a structural break in the conditional correlation processes from the late 1990s.commodity futures; double smooth transition; conditional correlation; financialization

Choices and Constraints over Retirement Income Streams: Comparing Rules and Regulations

The new Simplified Superannuation regulations for Australian superannuation provide tax concessions to retirement income streams which comply with legislated minimum drawdown rules. We evaluate these new drawdown rules against four alternatives, including three formula-based ‘rules of thumb’ and the previous legislated minimum drawdown limits for allocated pensions. We find that the new regulations are a substantial improvement on the previous rules for allocated pensions and, when compared with the four formula-based rules, are a good compromise in terms of simplicity, adequacy and risk. We also find that welfare is lower for most individuals who follow the Simplified Superannuation compared with welfare under an optimal path or a simple fixed percentage drawdown rule, but that outcomes could be improved through a further simplification of the rules.

Valuing Volatility Spillovers

forecasting, adcc, volatility spillovers, valuing

The Private Value of Public Pensions

Individual retirement savings accounts are replacing or supplementing public basic pensions. However at decumulation, replacing the public pension with an equivalent private sector income stream may be costly. We value the Australian basic pension by calculating the wealth needed to generate an equivalent payment stream using commercial annuities or phased withdrawals, but still accounting for investment and longevity risks. At age 65, a retiree needs an accumulation of about 8.5 years earnings to match the public pension in real value and insurance features. Increasing management fees by 1% raises required wealth by about one year's earnings. Delaying retirement by 5 years lowers required wealth by about one half year's earnings. Phased withdrawals have money's worth ratios close to 0.5 suggesting that private replacement costs are high.social security; longevity risk; phased withdrawal; stochastic present value

Choices and constraints over retirement income streams: comparing rules and regulations

The new Simplified Superannuation regulations for Australian superannuation provide tax concessions to retirement income streams which comply with legislated minimum drawdown rules. We evaluate these new drawdown rules against four alternatives, including three formula-based ‘rules of thumb’ and the previous legislated minimum drawdown limits for allocated pensions. We find that the new regulations are a substantial improvement on the previous rules for allocated pensions and, when compared with the four formula-based rules, are a good compromise in terms of simplicity, a dequacy and risk. We also find that welfare is lower for most individuals who follow the Simplified Superannuation compared with welfare under an optimal path or a simple fixed percentage drawdown rule, but that outcomes could be improved through a further simplification of the rules.

Means-Tested Income Support, Portfolio Choice and Decumulation in Retirement

We investigate the impact of means tested public income transfers on post-retirement decumulation and portfolio choice using theoretical simulations and panel data on Australian Age Pensioners. Means tested public pension payments in Australia have broad coverage and give insight into the incentive responsiveness of well-off, as well as poorer households. Via numerical solutions to a discrete time, finite horizon dynamic programming problem, we simulate the optimal consumption and portfolio allocation strategies for a retired household subject to assets and income tests. Relative to benchmark, means tested households should optimally decumulate faster early in retirement, and choose more risky portfolios. Panel data tests on inferred wealth for pensioner households show evidence of more rapid spending early in retirement. However they also show that better-off households continue to accumulate, even when facing a steeper implicit tax rate on wealth than applies to poorer households. Wealthier households also hold riskier portfolios. Results from tests for Lorenz dominance of the panel wealth distribution show no decrease in wealth inequality over the five years of the study.retirement wealth; life-cycle saving; public pension; portfolio choice