Peoples Knowledge about Climate Change: Uncertainty as a Guide to Future Commitments

Abstract Sundblad, E-L (2008). People's knowledge about climate change: Uncertainty as a guide to future commitments. Department of Psychology, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden. Knowledge of climate change is provided by scientists to other groups in society who have to interact to establish sustainable development. Hence, the knowledge must reach people and the content must be evaluated as important and relevant. In Study 1, knowledge and confidence in one's own knowledge was studied in a survey among four groups in society: experts, politicians, environmental journalists and laypersons. The study revealed gradually decreasing knowledge levels from experts to journalists, politicians and laypersons. The confidence levels showed a similar pattern. Both knowledge and confidence levels were higher for causes than state and consequences of climate change. All groups had less knowledge of health consequences as compared to weather and sea/glacier consequences. The realism of confidence in their own knowledge was somewhat higher among journalists than among experts, and relatively low among politicians and laypersons. Study II tested to what extent scientific knowledge of various domains was related to cognitive and affective risk judgements among laypersons. Subgroups divided by gender, being a parent or not, education, age and type of residence were analyzed. The results revealed that knowledge of both health consequences and causes of climate change was positively related to cognitive and affective risk judgements. Gender influenced affective but not cognitive risk judgements, as women were more worried than men. Study III revealed that information of scientific uncertainty of climate consequences influence risk perception. Study IV revealed that temporal distance to negative environmental consequences did not influence participants' intention to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Taken together, this research represents some steps towards a greater understanding of what facilitates and hinders the process toward a sustainable society. The studies show that scientific knowledge about climate change seems to be disseminated in an unbiased manner in society. Moreover, the results support the claim that both knowledge and confidence levels will increase when people learn more about climate change. In particular, risk awareness can be raised by increased knowledge of health consequences and of causes of climate change

Portfolio managers’ attitudes towards policy regulations of environmental reporting

Attitudes towards policy regulations of environmental reporting were examined in a survey of 15 portfolio managers of stock funds lacking an explicit environmental strategy. The managers’ evaluated three regulative measures. They were most positive toward requirements for companies to report their environmental impacts in a standardized way, a measure that also was perceived to have the largest impact on social responsible investment. They were less positive toward a requirement for the funds to display in which way they themselves take environmental criteria into account in their investments. They were least positive to announce the proportion of companies in their portfolios that in a standardized way reports environmental performance.Socially; Responsible; Investments

Social Influence in Stockmarkets: A Conceptual Analysis of Social Influence Processes in Stock Markets

This paper focuses on the role of social factors for booms-bubbles-busts cycles in stock markets. It is argued that indirect and direct social influences are important contributors by reinforcing stock investors’ cognitive biases exaggerated by affective influences. A review of herding research primarily undertaken by financial economists is followed by a demonstration that psychological theories of direct social influence (imitation) have bearings on the understanding of the herding phenomenon in stock markets. How to continue this research with relevance for regulations of stock markets is discussed.Social influence; stock investments; conceptual analysis

Use of port State control inspection data from the Paris MoU to assess pressure from shipping on the marine environment

In this report we analyse the relation between the Port State Control (PSC) system, as implemented by Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU), and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), which obligates EU member States to achieve a Good Environmental Status of their marine waters. The deficiency codes in the Paris MoU PSC THETIS list were reviewed to explore how the codes relate to, i.e. directly or indirectly affect, the marine environment. We further sorted these identified deficiency codes into different, partly overlapping, categories based on their relation to MSFDdescriptors. The number of deficiencies in the different categories were thereafter used as indices to infer pressures on the marine environment from different classes of ships. The approach was applied on a PSC inspection data set of ships that operated in the Baltic Sea or Skagerrak in 2018 to investigate if the number of deficiencies in four deficiency categories differed among ship types, ships of different ages and ships from different flagstates. We also analysed how deficiencies related to five different MSFD descriptors were distributed among ship classes.General cargo, container and dry bulk ships had on average more deficiencies per ship than other ship types. The youngest ships had on average fewer deficiencies per ship than older ships and ships from black and grey listed flag states had on average more deficiencies per ship than ships from white listed flag states. Ships registered in Sweden had on average fewer deficiencies per ship than average ships from white-listed flag states. The number of all deficiencies per ship was generally correlated with the number of deficiencies related to the marine environment. Thus, on a general level, the totalnumber of registered deficiencies also reflected the relative environmental performance of different ship classes. However, on a more detailed level, when deficiencies related to specific MSFD descriptors were analysed, some deviances from this general pattern were observed.The number of ships, as well as the total travelled distance, differed greatly among the different classes of ships. The total pressure on the Baltic marine environment, will, therefore, be larger from the more common middle-aged ships than from older ships, even though older ships on average performed worse than young and middle-aged ships. Similarly, because ships from white listed flag states are much more common, the total number of deficiencies of ships registered in white listed flag states, and hence, the total pressure on the marine environment, is much higher than the total number of deficiencies of, and total pressures from, ships from black and grey listed flag states. The insight that the total pressure of a class of ships is affected not only by the average performance of the ships in that class, but also by the number of ships and the total travelled distance, does not in any way reduce the need to stop the operation of the worst performing individual ships, and by various means to improve the average performance of ships in the low performing general cargo and dry bulk ship classes. From a marine environment management perspective, it is also important to recognize that alsocontinuous smaller improvements of the performance of the more numerous middleaged ships and of ships registered in white listed flag states will increase the possibility to achieve Good Environmental Status of the marine environments in Europe.We conclude that although the Paris MoU scheme for Port State Controls is an important measure to prevent pollution from ships, there is no harmonization between the work of Paris MoU and the marine environmental management in the EU including the implementation of MSFD. At least eight of the eleven descriptors of the MSFD are influenced by shipping but at least three of them cannot be evaluated by the present scheme for PSC. It is possible, according to our view, to develop the present PSC system to also include control measures that focus on these three descriptors, that is, on theeffect on biodiversity, sea-floor integrity and on the production of underwater noise. It is also important to investigate ways to add or modify deficiency codes that would capture the chemical composition of waste streams and remnant chemicals after tank cleanings. An additional development of the PSC system could be to also investigate the behaviour of ships during the period between PSC inspections, e.g. through the use of logged AIS data. The proposed system development would likely require both new financial resources and competencies

Social analysis: a marine societal analysis

The Marine Environmental Ordinance (SFS 2010:1341) is part of a strategy to bring about ecosystem-based management and sustainable use of the marine environment in accordance with the EU’s the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC). The ordinance is intended to maintain or achieve good environmental status in the marine environment. Under the Marine Environmental Ordinance, the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM) must ensure that an initial assessment is carried out on the marine environment in the Swedish waters of the two regions, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (Articles 13–16). The initial assessment, which is to be completed by 15 July 2012 and reported to the European Commission not later than 15 October of the same year, is to provide a basis for the establishment of good environmental status, environmental targets and environmental monitoring programmes, as well as the preparing of programmes of measures by which established targets may be achieved. The initial assessment will include conducting an economic and social analysis. The former can be divided into two parts, the first of which is designed to analyse the use of the marine region and the second to describe the cost of the degradation of the marine environment (Marine Environmental Ordinance, Article 13, para. 4, and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Article 8.1c). The primary purpose of the social analysis in the initial assessment is to create a picture of the underlying conditions of the upcoming work to achieve the aims of the directive, that is, good environmental status (GES, Article 9). The analysis is also intended to provide basic information for the establishment of environmental targets (Article 10) that will subsequently form the foundation of programmes of measures and administrative funding (Article 13). The assessment includes an analysis of how different groups in society can be affected by how the sea is used and by marine environmental problems and measures taken to address them. This study presents a method by which such an analysis can be conducted. The method includes a conceptual model that consists of the components 'Indirect driving forces, 'Direct driving forces , 'Environmental pressures, state and impact', 'Impact on society', and 'Response'. The model is used in combination with a question template to analyse actors, activities and driving forces. Case studies involving three environmental problems – selective overfishing of cod and the unwanted dispersion of mercury and phosphorous – show that a large number of actors are involved, directly and indirectly. In addition, these actors operate on several levels –local/regional, national and international. The Marine Environmental Ordinance (SFS 2010:1341) is part of a strategy to bring about ecosystem-based management and sustainable use of the marine environment in accordance with the EU’s the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC). The ordinance is intended to maintain or achieve good environmental status in the marine environment. Under the Marine Environmental Ordinance, the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management (SwAM) must ensure that an initial assessment is carried out on the marine environment in the Swedish waters of the two regions, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea (Articles 13–16). The initial assessment, which is to be completed by 15 July 2012 and reported to the European Commission not later than 15 October of the same year, is to provide a basis for the establishment of good environmental status, environmental targets and environmental monitoring programmes, as well as the preparing of programmes of measures by which established targets may be achieved. The initial assessment will include conducting an economic and social analysis. The former can be divided into two parts, the first of which is designed to analyse the use of the marine region and the second to describe the cost of the degradation of the marine environment (Marine Environmental Ordinance, Article 13, para. 4, and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Article 8.1c). The primary purpose of the social analysis in the initial assessment is to create a picture of the underlying conditions of the upcoming work to achieve the aims of the directive, that is, good environmental status (GES, Article 9). The analysis is also intended to provide basic information for the establishment of environmental targets (Article 10) that will subsequently form the foundation of programmes of measures and administrative funding (Article 13). The assessment includes an analysis of how different groups in society can be affected by how the sea is used and by marine environmental problems and measures taken to address them. This study presents a method by which such an analysis can be conducted. The method includes a conceptual model that consists of the components 'Indirect driving forces, 'Direct driving forces , 'Environmental pressures, state and impact', 'Impact on society', and 'Response'. The model is used in combination with a question template to analyse actors, activities and driving forces. Case studies involving three environmental problems – selective overfishing of cod and the unwanted dispersion of mercury and phosphorous – show that a large number of actors are involved, directly and indirectly. In addition, these actors operate on several levels –local/regional, national and international

Social analys – en havsrelaterad samhällsanalys. Underlagsrapport för Sveriges inledande bedömning i havsmiljöförordningen

Havsmiljöförordningen, SFS 2010:1341, (HMF) ingår i en strategi för en ekosystembaserad förvaltning och ett hållbart nyttjande av havsmiljön som avses i Havsmiljödirektivet (2008/56/EG). Förordningen syftar till att upprätthålla eller nå en god miljöstatus i havsmiljön. Enligt HMF ska Havs- och vattenmyndigheten se till att det görs en inledande bedömningen av havsmiljön i de svenska delarna av de två förvaltningsområdena Nordsjön och Östersjön (13 § - 16 §). Den inledande bedömningen, som ska vara avslutad den 15 juli 2012 och rapporteras till Europeiska kommissionen senast den 15 oktober samma år, ska ligga till grund för fastställande av god miljöstatus, miljömål och miljöövervakningsprogram samt utarbetande av åtgärdsprogram för att nå uppsatta mål. I den inledande bedömningen ingår att utföra en ekonomisk och social analys, den förra kan delas in i två delar där den första syftar till att analysera nyttjandet av havsområdet och den andra delen att beskriva kostnaderna av att miljön i havsområdena försämras (HMF, 13 §, p.4 samt Havsmiljödirektivet, Artikel 8.1c). Det primära syftet med den sociala analysen i den inledande bedömningen är att skapa en bild av förutsättningarna för det kommande arbetet med att uppnå direktivets syften, dvs. god miljöstatus (GES, artikel 9). Analysen ska också tjäna som underlag vid utformningen av miljömål (artikel 10) som sedermera kommer att ligga till grund för åtgärdsprogram och styrmedel (artikel 13). Bedömningen inbegriper en analys av hur olika grupper i samhället kan beröras av havets nyttjande, havsrelaterade miljöproblem och deras åtgärdande. I denna studie lanseras en metod att genomföra en sådan analys. Metoden inbegriper en tankemodell som består av komponenterna Indirekta drivkrafter, Direkta drivkrafter, Påverkan/tillstånd/effekt i miljön, Effekt i samhället och Respons med. Modellen används tillsammans med en frågemall för att kartlägga aktörer och drivkrafter. Fallstudier avseende tre miljöproblem - selektivt överfiske av torsk samt oönskad spridning av kvicksilver och fosfor - visar att ett stort antal aktörer är inblandade såväl indirekt som direkt. Dessutom verkar aktörerna på olika nivåer: lokalt/regionalt, nationellt och internationellt. Varje miljöproblem behöver sin egen analys och har egna förutsättningar. Studien visar att den information som behövs för att besluta om åtgärder är relativt omfattande. Avvägningen av vilken mängd information som är tillräcklig och som bör övervakas i framtiden kan ha stor påverkan på utvecklingen i samhället och i miljön. Slutligen lämnas förslag på hur framtida havsmiljörelaterade samhällsanalyser kan genomföras

Fallstudie: Selektivt uttag av torsk

Denna fallstudie har gjorts på uppdrag av Havs- och vattenmyndigheten. Den ingår i en havsrelaterad samhällsanalys som består av en huvudrapport och tre fallstudier. Havsmiljöinstitutets publicerar dessa som separata rapporter. Fallstudierna utgör underlag till en syntes över olika gruppers behov och nyttjande av de marina resurserna, gruppers påverkan av miljöproblem i havet och åtgärdandet av dessa. Underlag i fallstudien har främst hämtats från officiell statistik, forskningsrapporter och sammanställningar över forskning. Uppgifter har även samlats in genom kontakter med ansvariga och experter på myndigheter

Fallstudie: Förekomst och tillförsel av näringsämnen (P)

Denna fallstudie har gjorts på uppdrag av Havs- och vattenmyndigheten. Den ingår i en havsrelaterad samhällsanalys som består av en huvudrapport och tre fallstudier. Havsmiljöinstitutets publicerar dessa som separata rapporter. Fallstudierna utgör underlag till en syntes över olika gruppers behov och nyttjande av de marina resurserna, gruppers påverkan av miljöproblem i havet och åtgärdandet av dessa. Underlag i fallstudien har främst hämtats från officiell statistik, forskningsrapporter och sammanställningar över forskning. Uppgifter har även samlats in genom kontakter med ansvariga och experter på myndigheter

Fallstudie: Kvicksilver

Denna fallstudie har gjorts på uppdrag av Havs- och vattenmyndigheten. Den ingår i en havsrelaterad samhällsanalys som består av en huvudrapport och tre fallstudier. Havsmiljöinstitutets publicerar dessa som separata rapporter. Fallstudierna utgör underlag till en syntes över olika gruppers behov och nyttjande av de marina resurserna, gruppers påverkan av miljöproblem i havet och åtgärdandet av dessa. Underlag i fallstudien har främst hämtats från officiell statistik, forskningsrapporter och sammanställningar över forskning. Uppgifter har även samlats in genom kontakter med ansvariga och experter på myndigheter

Utveckling av indikatorer för samhällsfenomen som påverkar utsläpp av näringsämnen till havet

Belastningen av de marina ekosystemen påverkas av en mängd olika fenomen eller företeelser i samhället, och ett försämrat tillstånd i sådana ekosystem kan påverka människans välfärd i flera olika avseenden. Därför kräver havsmiljöförvaltning en god förståelse för komplexa sociala, ekonomiska och ekologiska system. Förvaltningsfrågornas komplexitet innebär också att det finns ett behov av indikatorer som kan tydliggöra väsentliga tillstånd och förändringar i de berörda systemen. Speciellt finns ett behov av indikatorer som på ett informativt sätt kan beskriva förhållanden i samhället som direkt eller indirekt påverkar havsmiljön. Den här rapporten syftar till att visa hur man kan skapa en strukturerad arbetsgång för att identifiera och utveckla havsmiljörelevanta samhällsindikatorer. En viktig grupp av samhällsindikatorer kan identifieras genom att först klarlägga fysiska flöden av substanser, produkter och avfall i samhället och sedan koppla dessa flöden till aktörer. Andra indikatorer kan identifieras genom att kartlägga hur informationsflöden och förhållningssätt påverkar olika aktörers beteenden och handlingar