Development of a diarrhoea severity scoring scale in a passive health facility-based surveillance system

Background Diarrhoeal disease remains a leading cause of death among children mostly in low and middle- income countries. Factors contributing to disease severity are complex and there is currently no consensus on a scoring tool for use in community-based studies. Methods Data were collected during a passive surveillance system in an outpatient health facility in Lusaka, Zambia from March 2019 to July 2019. Diarrhea episodes were assessed for severity using an in-house severity scoring tool (CIDRZ) and previously published scores (Vesikari, Clark, CODA, and DHAKA). The CIDRZ score was constructed using fieldworker-reported clinical signs and exploratory factor analysis. We used precision-recall curves measuring severe diarrhoea (i.e., requiring intravenous rehydration or referred for hospital admission) to determine the best performing scores. Then, we used Cronbach's alpha to assess the scale's internal consistency. Finally, we used Cohen's kappa to assess agreement between the scores. Results Of 110 diarrhea episodes, 3 (3%) required intravenous rehydration or were referred for hospital admission. The precision-recall area under the curve of each score as a predictor of severe diarrhoea requiring intravenous rehydration or hospital admission was 0.26 for Vesikari, 0.18 for CODA, 0.24 for Clark, 0.59 for DHAKA, and 0.59 for CIDRZ. The CIDRZ scale had substantial reliability and performed similarly to the DHAKA score. Conclusions Diarrhoea severity scores focused on characteristics specific to dehydration status may better predict severe diarrhea among children in Lusaka. Aetiology-specific scoring tools may not be appropriate for use in community healthcare settings. Validation studies for the CIDRZ score in diverse settings and with larger sample sizes are warranted

Interpreting sexual behaviour data: validity issues in the multicentre study on factors determining the differential spread of HIV in four African cities

Not the final published versionBACKGROUND: The main conclusion of the multicentre study on factors determining the differential spread of HIV in four African cities was that differences in sexual behaviour could not, by themselves, explain the differences in HIV prevalence between the four cities. The present paper examines three potential sources of bias that could invalidate this conclusion: (1) changes in sexual behaviour since the start of the HIV epidemics; (2) bias due to the low response rates of men; and (3) bias in reported sexual behaviour. METHODS: To assess whether there have been any changes in sexual behaviour over time, selected parameters of sexual behaviour were compared between different age groups in the four cities. The maximum likely extent of bias due to non-participation of men in Yaoundé, Kisumu and Ndola was assessed with a simulation exercise, in which records of non-participants were replaced with records of 'low activity men' in Yaoundé and 'high activity men' in Kisumu and Ndola. To assess the validity of the sexual behaviour data, internal validity checks were carried out: comparing biological data on sexually transmitted infections with reports; comparing reports of spouses; and comparing numbers of sex partners reported by men and women. A fourth method consisted of comparing the findings of the multicentre study with an external source, Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). RESULTS: There were differences in sexual behaviour between the younger and the older age groups in all four cities but there was no evidence of a shift towards safer sexual behaviour in the high HIV prevalence cities. After simulating results for male non-participants in Yaoundé, Kisumu and Ndola, the median lifetime number of sex partners was similar in Yaoundé, Kisumu and Ndola. By testing for various sexually transmitted infections among men and women aged 15-24 years who reported that they had never had sexual intercourse, we could establish that, in all four cities, at least 1-9% of men and 6-18% of women had misreported their sexual activity. The number of non-spousal partners in the past 12 months reported by men was two to three times higher than the number reported by women, as has been found in other studies. The most consistent differences between our survey and the DHS were found in the numbers of non-spousal partners in the past 12 months reported by never-married men and women. In all four cities, participants reported more non-spousal partners in the DHS than in our survey. CONCLUSIONS: In all four cities, we found evidence that men as well as women misreported their sexual behaviour, but overall it seems that under-reporting of sexual activity was not more common or more serious in the two high HIV prevalence cities than in the two low HIV prevalence cities. We believe that the main conclusions of the multicentre study still hold

Multicentre study on factors determining differences in rate of spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: methods and prevalence of HIV infection.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to explore whether the differences in rate of spread of HIV in different regions in sub-Saharan Africa could be explained by differences in sexual behaviour and/or factors influencing the probability of HIV transmission during sexual intercourse. METHODS: A cross-sectional, population-based study was conducted in two cities with a high HIV prevalence (Kisumu in Kenya and Ndola in Zambia) and two cities with a relatively low HIV prevalence (Cotonou in Benin and Yaoundé in Cameroon). In each of these cities, approximately 1000 men and 1000 women, aged 15-49 years, were randomly selected from the general population. Consenting men and women were interviewed and were tested for HIV, syphilis, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection and trichomoniasis (the latter for women only). In addition, a survey was conducted on a random sample of 300 sex workers in each city. The research instruments, including the questionnaires and the laboratory procedures, were standardized to permit comparison of results. RESULTS: The numbers of men interviewed were 1021 in Cotonou, 973 in Yaoundé, 829 in Kisumu, and 720 in Ndola. The corresponding figures for women were 1095, 1116, 1060 and 1130. In Yaoundé, Kisumu and Ndola, the response rates for men were lower than for women due to failure to make contact with eligible men. The proportion of eligible women who were interviewed was 86% in Yaoundé, and 89% in Kisumu and Ndola. In Yaoundé, 76% of eligible men were interviewed, along with 82% in Kisumu and 75% in Ndola. The prevalence of HIV infection in men was 3.3% in Cotonou, 4.1% in Yaoundé, 19.8% in Kisumu and 23.2% in Ndola. For women, the respective figures were 3.4, 7.8, 30.1 and 31.9%. The prevalence of HIV infection among women aged 15-19 years was 23.0% in Kisumu and 15.4% in Ndola. Among women in Kisumu who had their sexual debut 5 years before the interview, the prevalence of HIV infection was 46%; in Ndola, it was 59%. Among sex workers, the prevalence of HIV infection was 57.5% in Cotonou, 34.4% in Yaoundé, 74.7% in Kisumu and 68.7% in Ndola. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV prevalence rates in the general population confirmed our preliminary assessment of the level of HIV infection in the four cities, which was based on estimates of HIV prevalence from sentinel surveillance among pregnant women. The very high prevalence of HIV infection among young women in Kisumu and Ndola calls for urgent intervention