Crude palm oil futures market efficiency: Long memory investigation

The two fundamental functions of a futures market is the price discovery function and the hedging (or risk transfer) function. These functions can be achieved optimally if the market is efficient. This study employs daily data for the Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) futures from 1997 to 2010 to explore the impact of the time series properties of the futures-spot basis and the cost of carry on futures market unbiasedness. The main result is that the basis of the CPO futures exhibit long memory component. Using interest rate as a proxy for cost of carry, our results support the evidence of the long memory. This evidence of long memory implies the existence of persistence in the data and as consequence; future spot price observations might be predictable on the basis of past realisations of the data. This leads to the rejection of unbiasedness hypothesis and therefore exhibits market inefficiency

Long-Run Movements in Real Exchange Rates: 1264 to 2020

The real exchange rate is an important measure of the relative strength of an economy. Given long-term productivity differentials between countries, Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects suggest that stronger economies will experience real exchange rate appreciations and vice versa. How long can these effects last? Using a novel dataset and trend tests robust to pre-testing for the order of integration, we examine the path of ten ultra-long real exchange rates relative to Sterling with data commencing in the 13th century.Whilst we show Sterling commonly presents a trend appreciation from the 16th century to the 19th century, a striking trend depreciation occurred throughout 20th century with some evidence of prior decline. Further analysis reveals that real exchange rates are cointegrated with productivity differential proxies over much of the last millennia, suggesting the UK’s current productivity decline is more entrenched and persistent than previously thought

Microsecond Carrier Lifetimes, Controlled p-Doping, and Enhanced Air Stability in Low-Bandgap Metal Halide Perovskites.

Mixed lead-tin halide perovskites have sufficiently low bandgaps (∼1.2 eV) to be promising absorbers for perovskite-perovskite tandem solar cells. Previous reports on lead-tin perovskites have typically shown poor optoelectronic properties compared to neat lead counterparts: short photoluminescence lifetimes (<100 ns) and low photoluminescence quantum efficiencies (<1%). Here, we obtain films with carrier lifetimes exceeding 1 μs and, through addition of small quantities of zinc iodide to the precursor solutions, photoluminescence quantum efficiencies under solar illumination intensities of 2.5%. The zinc additives also substantially enhance the film stability in air, and we use cross-sectional chemical mapping to show that this enhanced stability is because of a reduction in tin-rich clusters. By fabricating field-effect transistors, we observe that the introduction of zinc results in controlled p-doping. Finally, we show that zinc additives also enhance power conversion efficiencies and the stability of solar cells. Our results demonstrate substantially improved low-bandgap perovskites for solar cells and versatile electronic applications.EPSRC (EP/M005143/1 and DTP funding) Royal Society ER

Interpretation of inverted photocurrent transients in organic lead halide perovskite solar cells: proof of the field screening by mobile ions and determination of the space charge layer widths

In Methyl Ammonium Lead Iodide (MAPI) perovskite solar cells, screening of the built-in field by mobile ions has been proposed as part of the cause of the large hysteresis observed in the current/voltage scans in many cells. We show that photocurrent transients measured immediately (e.g. 100 μs) after a voltage step can provide direct evidence that this field screening exists. Just after a step to forward bias, the photocurrent transients are reversed in sign (i.e. inverted), and the magnitude of the inverted transients can be used to find an upper bound on the width of the space charge layers adjacent to the electrodes. This in turn provides a lower bound on the mobile charge concentration, which we find to be ≳1 × 1017 cm−3. Using a new photocurrent transient experiment, we show that the space charge layer thickness remains approximately constant as a function of bias, as expected for mobile ions in a solid electrolyte. We also discuss additional characteristics of the inverted photocurrent transients that imply either an unusually stable deep trapping, or a photo effect on the mobile ion conductivity

Detecting depressive and anxiety disorders in distressed patients in primary care; comparative diagnostic accuracy of the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS)

BACKGROUND: Depressive and anxiety disorders often go unrecognized in distressed primary care patients, despite the overtly psychosocial nature of their demand for help. This is especially problematic in more severe disorders needing specific treatment (e.g. antidepressant pharmacotherapy or specialized cognitive behavioural therapy). The use of a screening tool to detect (more severe) depressive and anxiety disorders may be useful not to overlook such disorders. We examined the accuracy with which the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire (4DSQ) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) are able to detect (more severe) depressive and anxiety disorders in distressed patients, and which cut-off points should be used. METHODS: Seventy general practitioners (GPs) included 295 patients on sick leave due to psychological problems. They excluded patients with recognized depressive or anxiety disorders. Patients completed the 4DSQ and HADS. Standardized diagnoses of DSM-IV defined depressive and anxiety disorders were established with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to obtain sensitivity and specificity values for a range of scores, and area under the curve (AUC) values as a measure of diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: With respect to the detection of any depressive or anxiety disorder (180 patients, 61%), the 4DSQ and HADS scales yielded comparable results with AUC values between 0.745 and 0.815. Also with respect to the detection of moderate or severe depressive disorder, the 4DSQ and HADS depression scales performed comparably (AUC 0.780 and 0.739, p 0.165). With respect to the detection of panic disorder, agoraphobia and social phobia, the 4DSQ anxiety scale performed significantly better than the HADS anxiety scale (AUC 0.852 versus 0.757, p 0.001). The recommended cut-off points of both HADS scales appeared to be too low while those of the 4DSQ anxiety scale appeared to be too high. CONCLUSION: In general practice patients on sick leave because of psychological problems, the 4DSQ and the HADS are equally able to detect depressive and anxiety disorders. However, for the detection of cases severe enough to warrant specific treatment, the 4DSQ may have some advantages over the HADS, specifically for the detection of panic disorder, agoraphobia and social phobi

Expanding the Repertoire of Modified Vaccinia Ankara-Based Vaccine Vectors via Genetic Complementation Strategies

nkara (MVA) is a safe, highly attenuated orthopoxvirus that is being developed as a recombinant vaccine vector for immunization against a number of infectious diseases and cancers. However, the expression by MVA vectors of large numbers of poxvirus antigens, which display immunodominance over vectored antigens-of-interest for the priming of T cell responses, and the induction of vector-neutralizing antibodies, which curtail the efficacy of subsequent booster immunizations, remain as significant impediments to the overall utility of such vaccines. Thus, genetic approaches that enable the derivation of MVA vectors that are antigenically less complex may allow for rational improvement of MVA-based vaccines. during infection, and that the processes governing the generation of antiviral antibody responses are more readily saturated by viral antigen than are those that elicit CD8+ T cell responses. deletion, enables the generation of novel replication-defective MVA mutants and expands the repertoire of genetic viral variants that can now be explored as improved vaccine vectors

Roadmap on Photovoltaic Absorber Materials for Sustainable Energy Conversion

Photovoltaics (PVs) are a critical technology for curbing growing levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and meeting increases in future demand for low-carbon electricity. In order to fulfil ambitions for net-zero carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) emissions worldwide, the global cumulative capacity of solar PVs must increase by an order of magnitude from 0.9 TWp in 2021 to 8.5 TWp by 2050 according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, which is considered to be a highly conservative estimate. In 2020, the Henry Royce Institute brought together the UK PV community to discuss the critical technological and infrastructure challenges that need to be overcome to address the vast challenges in accelerating PV deployment. Herein, we examine the key developments in the global community, especially the progress made in the field since this earlier roadmap, bringing together experts primarily from the UK across the breadth of the photovoltaics community. The focus is both on the challenges in improving the efficiency, stability and levelized cost of electricity of current technologies for utility-scale PVs, as well as the fundamental questions in novel technologies that can have a significant impact on emerging markets, such as indoor PVs, space PVs, and agrivoltaics. We discuss challenges in advanced metrology and computational tools, as well as the growing synergies between PVs and solar fuels, and offer a perspective on the environmental sustainability of the PV industry. Through this roadmap, we emphasize promising pathways forward in both the short- and long-term, and for communities working on technologies across a range of maturity levels to learn from each other.Comment: 160 pages, 21 figure