Biochemical diagnosis of ventricular dysfunction in elderly patients in general practice: observational study

Objective: To investigate the usefulness of measuring plasma concentrations of B type natriuretic peptide in the diagnosis of left ventricular systolic dysfunction in an unselected group of elderly people. Design: Observational study. Setting: General practice with four centres in Poole, Dorset. Participants: 155 elderly patients aged 70 to 84 years. Main outcome measures: Diagnostic characteristics of plasma B type natriuretic peptide measured by radioimmunoassay as a test for left ventricular systolic dysfunction assessed by echocardiography. Results: The median plasma concentration of B type natriuretic peptide was 39.3 pmol/l in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and 15.8 pmol/l in those with normal function. The proportional area under the receiver operator curve was 0.85. At a cut-off point of 18.7 pmol/l the test sensitivity was 92% and the predictive value 18%. Conclusions: Plasma concentration of B type natriuretic peptide could be used effectively as an initial test in a community screening programme and, possibly, using a low cut-off point, as a means of ruling out left ventricular systolic dysfunction. It is, however, not a good test to “rule in” the diagnosis, and access to echocardiography remains essential for general practitioners to diagnose heart failure early

Rubber-tiring farm machines

When farm machines roll on rubber rather than steel the results are protection from shock and reduced rolling resistance. Shock reduction means higher speeds with less breakage and longer life for the machines plus increased comfort for the machine operator. A decrease in rolling resistance means more speed with less fuel consumption. Because of the increasing demand for rubber tires on farm machines, and because there are many machines now in use which are not equipped with rubber, this bulletin is mainly devoted to pictorially describing an economical method of changing from steel to rubber. Brief data substantiating the reasons for making the change are given first

Myocardial fibrosis in stroke survivors

Stroke survivors are most likely to die of cardiac death, yet few undergo comprehensive cardiac assessment to look for reversible causes. Myocardial fibrosis (MF) is not only the hallmark of cardiomyopathy, but also a substrate for sudden cardiac death, ventricular tachyarrhythmia and heart failure. Procollagen carboxyl-terminal telopeptide (PICP) was found to be a marker of MF. The relationship between PICP and cardiac abnormalities in stroke survivors is unknown. We recently showed that MF in stroke survivors can be treated by spironolactone and amiloride in a randomised placebo-controlled cross-over study with reduction in PICP levels and QTc [1]

QT peak prolongation predicts cardiac death following stroke

Cardiac death has been linked in many populations to prolongation of the QT interval (QTe). However, basic science research suggested that the best estimate of the time point when repolarisation begins is near the T-wave peak. We found QT peak (QTp) was longer in hypertensive subjects with LVH. A prolonged “depolarisation” phase, rather than “repolarisation” (T peak to T end) might therefore account for the higher incidence of cardiac death linked to long QT. Hypothesis: We have tested the hypothesis that QT peak (QTp) prolongation predicts cardiac death in stroke survivors. Methods and Results: ECGs were recorded from 296 stroke survivors (152 male), mean age 67.2 (SD 11.6) approximately 1 year after the event. Their mean blood pressure was 152/88 mmHg (SD 29/15mmHg). These ECGs were digitised by one observer who was blinded to patient outcome. The patients were followed up for a median of 3.3 years. The primary endpoint was cardiac death. A prolonged heart rate corrected QT peak (QTpc) of lead I carried the highest relative risk of death from all cause as well as cardiac death, when compared with the other more conventional QT indices. In multivariate analyses, when adjusted for conventional risk factors of atherosclerosis, a prolonged QTpc of lead I was still associated with a 3-fold increased risk of cardiac death. (adjusted relative risk 3.0 [95% CI 1.1 - 8.5], p=0.037). Conclusion: QT peak prolongation in lead I predicts cardiac death after strok

Inverse modelling of cloud-aerosol interactions – Part 2: Sensitivity tests on liquid phase clouds using a Markov chain Monte Carlo based simulation approach

This paper presents a novel approach to investigate cloud-aerosol interactions by coupling a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to an adiabatic cloud parcel model. Despite the number of numerical cloud-aerosol sensitivity studies previously conducted few have used statistical analysis tools to investigate the global sensitivity of a cloud model to input aerosol physiochemical parameters. Using numerically generated cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) distributions (i.e. synthetic data) as cloud observations, this inverse modelling framework is shown to successfully estimate the correct calibration parameters, and their underlying posterior probability distribution. <br></br> The employed analysis method provides a new, integrative framework to evaluate the global sensitivity of the derived CDNC distribution to the input parameters describing the lognormal properties of the accumulation mode aerosol and the particle chemistry. To a large extent, results from prior studies are confirmed, but the present study also provides some additional insights. There is a transition in relative sensitivity from very clean marine Arctic conditions where the lognormal aerosol parameters representing the accumulation mode aerosol number concentration and mean radius and are found to be most important for determining the CDNC distribution to very polluted continental environments (aerosol concentration in the accumulation mode >1000 cm<sup>−3</sup>) where particle chemistry is more important than both number concentration and size of the accumulation mode. <br></br> The competition and compensation between the cloud model input parameters illustrates that if the soluble mass fraction is reduced, the aerosol number concentration, geometric standard deviation and mean radius of the accumulation mode must increase in order to achieve the same CDNC distribution. <br></br> This study demonstrates that inverse modelling provides a flexible, transparent and integrative method for efficiently exploring cloud-aerosol interactions with respect to parameter sensitivity and correlation

Towards understanding the clinical significance of QT peak prolongation: a novel marker of myocardial ischemia independently demonstrated in two prospective studies

Background: QT peak prolongation identified patients at risk of death or non-fatal MI. We tested the hypothesis that QT peak prolongation might be associated with significant myocardial ischaemia in two separate cohorts to see how widely applicable the concept was. Methods and Results: In the first study, 134 stroke survivors were prospectively recruited and had 12-lead ECGs and Nuclear myocardial perfusion scanning. QT peak was measured in lead I of a 12-lead ECG and heart rate corrected by Bazett’s formula (QTpc). QTpc prolongation to 360ms or more was 92% specific at diagnosing severe myocardial ischaemia. This hypothesis-generating study led us to perform a second prospective study in a different cohort of patients who were referred for dobutamine stress echocardiography. 13 of 102 patients had significant myocardial ischaemia. Significant myocardial ischaemia was associated with QT peak prolongation at rest (mean 354ms, 95% CI 341-367ms, compared with mean 332ms, 95% CI 327-337ms in those without significant ischaemia; p=0.002). QT peak prolongation to 360ms or more was 88% specific at diagnosing significant myocardial ischaemia in the stress echocardiography study. QT peak prolongation to 360ms or more was associated with over 4-fold increase odds ratio of significant myocardial ischaemia. The Mantel- Haenszel Common Odds Ratio Estimate=4.4, 95% CI=1.2-16.0, p=0.023. Conclusion: QT peak (QTpc) prolongation to 360ms or more should make us suspect the presence of significant myocardial ischaemia. Such patients merit further investigations for potentially treatable ischaemic heart disease to reduce their risk of subsequent death or non-fatal MI

Leucine and ACE inhibitors as therapies for sarcopenia (LACE trial): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Sarcopenia (the age-related loss of muscle mass and function) is a major contributor to loss of mobility, falls, loss of independence, morbidity and mortality in older people. Although resistance training is effective in preventing and reversing sarcopenia, many older people are sedentary and either cannot or do not want to exercise. This trial examines the efficacy of supplementation with the amino acid leucine and/or angiotensin converting enzyme inhibition to potentially improve muscle mass and function in people with sarcopenia. Promising preliminary data exist from small studies for both interventions, but neither has yet been tested in adequately powered randomised trials in patients with sarcopenia. Methods: Leucine and ACE inhibitors in sarcopenia (LACE) is a multicentre, masked, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial randomised trial evaluating the efficacy of leucine and perindopril (angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)) in patients with sarcopenia. The trial will recruit 440 patients from primary and secondary care services across the UK. Male and female patients aged 70 years and over with sarcopenia as defined by the European Working Group on Sarcopenia (based on low total skeletal muscle mass on bioimpedance analysis and either low gait speed or low handgrip strength) will be eligible for participation. Participants will be excluded if they have a contraindication to, or are already taking, an ACEi, angiotensin receptor blocker or leucine. The primary clinical outcome for the trial is the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery score at all points between baseline and 12 months. Secondary outcomes include appendicular muscle mass measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, muscle strength, activities of daily living, quality of life, activity using pedometer step counts and falls. Participants, clinical teams, outcomes assessors and trial analysts are masked to treatment allocation. A panel of biomarkers including microRNAs, neurohormones, genetic polymorphisms and markers of inflammation relevant to muscle pathophysiology will be measured to explore predictors of response and further elucidate mechanisms underlying sarcopenia. Participants will receive a total of 12 months of either perindopril or placebo and either leucine or placebo. Discussion: The results will provide the first robust test of the overall clinical and cost-effectiveness of these novel therapies for older patients with sarcopenia. Trial registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN90094835. Registered on 18 February 2015

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on blood pressure:a systematic review and meta-analysis incorporating individual patient data

D-PRESSURE Collaboration: et al.[Importance]: Low levels of vitamin D are associated with elevated blood pressure (BP) and future cardiovascular events. Whether vitamin D supplementation reduces BP and which patient characteristics predict a response remain unclear.[Objective]: To systematically review whether supplementation with vitamin D or its analogues reduce BP.[Data Sources]: We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and http://www.ClinicalTrials.com augmented by a hand search of references from the included articles and previous reviews. Google was searched for gray literature (ie, material not published in recognized scientific journals). No language restrictions were applied. The search period spanned January 1, 1966, through March 31, 2014.[Study Selection]: We included randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials that used vitamin D supplementation for a minimum of 4 weeks for any indication and reported BP data. Studies were included if they used active or inactive forms of vitamin D or vitamin D analogues. Cointerventions were permitted if identical in all treatment arms.[Data Extraction and Synthesis]: We extracted data on baseline demographics, 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP), and change in BP from baseline to the final follow-up. Individual patient data on age, sex, medication use, diabetes mellitus, baseline and follow-up BP, and 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were requested from the authors of the included studies. For trial-level data, between-group differences in BP change were combined in a random-effects model. For individual patient data, between-group differences in BP at the final follow up, adjusted for baseline BP, were calculated before combining in a random-effects model.[Main Outcomes and Measures]: Difference in SBP and DBP measured in an office setting.[Results]: We included 46 trials (4541 participants) in the trial-level meta-analysis. Individual patient data were obtained for 27 trials (3092 participants). At the trial level, no effect of vitamin D supplementation was seen on SBP (effect size, 0.0 [95% CI, −0.8 to 0.8] mm Hg; P = .97; I2 = 21%) or DBP (effect size, −0.1 [95% CI, −0.6 to 0.5] mm Hg; P = .84; I2 = 20%). Similar results were found analyzing individual patient data for SBP (effect size, −0.5 [95% CI, −1.3 to 0.4] mm Hg; P = .27; I2 = 0%) and DBP (effect size, 0.2 [95% CI, −0.3 to 0.7] mm Hg; P = .38; I2 = 0%). Subgroup analysis did not reveal any baseline factor predictive of a better response to therapy.[Conclusions and Relevance]: Vitamin D supplementation is ineffective as an agent for lowering BP and thus should not be used as an antihypertensive agent.Peer reviewe