Top-down estimate of a large source of atmospheric carbon monoxide associated with fuel combustion in Asia

We simulate the oceanic and atmospheric distribution of methyl iodide (CH3I) with a global 3-D model driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System of the NASA Data Assimilation Office and coupled to an oceanic mixed layer model. A global compilation of atmospheric and oceanic observations is used to constrain and evaluate the simulation. Seawater CH3I(aq) in the model is produced photochemically from dissolved organic carbon, and is removed by reaction with Cl− and emission to the atmosphere. The net oceanic emission to the atmosphere is 214 Gg yr−1. Small terrestrial emissions from rice paddies, wetlands, and biomass burning are also included in the model. The model captures 40% of the variance in the observed seawater CH3I(aq) concentrations. Simulated concentrations at midlatitudes in summer are too high, perhaps because of a missing biological sink of CH3I(aq). We define a marine convection index (MCI) as the ratio of upper tropospheric (8–12 km) to lower tropospheric (0–2.5 km) CH3I concentrations averaged over coherent oceanic regions. The MCI in the observations ranges from 0.11 over strongly subsiding regions (southeastern subtropical Pacific) to 0.40 over strongly upwelling regions (western equatorial Pacific). The model reproduces the observed MCI with no significant global bias (offset of only +11%) but accounts for only 15% of its spatial and seasonal variance. The MCI can be used to test marine convection in global models, complementing the use of radon-222 as a test of continental convection.Engineering and Applied Science

Climatic effects of 1950-2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols - Part 2: Climate response

We investigate the climate response to changing US anthropogenic aerosol sources over the 1950–2050 period by using the NASA GISS general circulation model (GCM) and comparing to observed US temperature trends. Time-dependent aerosol distributions are generated from the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model applied to historical emission inventories and future projections. Radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols peaked in 1970–1990 and has strongly declined since due to air quality regulations. We find that the regional radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols elicits a strong regional climate response, cooling the central and eastern US by 0.5–1.0 °C on average during 1970–1990, with the strongest effects on maximum daytime temperatures in summer and autumn. Aerosol cooling reflects comparable contributions from direct and indirect (cloud-mediated) radiative effects. Absorbing aerosol (mainly black carbon) has negligible warming effect. Aerosol cooling reduces surface evaporation and thus decreases precipitation along the US east coast, but also increases the southerly flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in increased cloud cover and precipitation in the central US. Observations over the eastern US show a lack of warming in 1960–1980 followed by very rapid warming since, which we reproduce in the GCM and attribute to trends in US anthropogenic aerosol sources. Present US aerosol concentrations are sufficiently low that future air quality improvements are projected to cause little further warming in the US (0.1 °C over 2010–2050). We find that most of the warming from aerosol source controls in the US has already been realized over the 1980–2010 period

Improved quantification of Chinese carbon fluxes using CO2/CO correlations in Asian outflow

[1] We use observed CO2:CO correlations in Asian outflow from the TRACE-P aircraft campaign (February–April 2001), together with a three-dimensional global chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM), to constrain specific components of the east Asian CO2 budget including, in particular, Chinese emissions. The CO2/CO emission ratio varies with the source of CO2 (different combustion types versus the terrestrial biosphere) and provides a characteristic signature of source regions and source type. Observed CO2/CO correlation slopes in east Asian boundary layer outflow display distinct regional signatures ranging from 10–20 mol/mol (outflow from northeast China) to 80 mol/mol (over Japan). Model simulations using best a priori estimates of regional CO2 and CO sources from Streets et al. [2003] (anthropogenic), the CASA model (biospheric), and Duncan et al. [2003] (biomass burning) overestimate CO2 concentrations and CO2/CO slopes in the boundary layer outflow. Constraints from the CO2/CO slopes indicate that this must arise from an overestimate of the modeled regional net biospheric CO2 flux. Our corrected best estimate of the net biospheric source of CO2 from China for March–April 2001 is 3200 Gg C/d, which represents a 45 % reduction of the net flux from the CASA model. Previous analyses of the TRACE-P data had found that anthropogenic Chinese C

Ozone Monitoring Instrument Observations of Interannual Increases in SO2 Emissions from Indian Coal-fired Power Plants During 2005-2012

Due to the rapid growth of electricity demand and the absence of regulations, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from coal-fired power plants in India have increased notably in the past decade. In this study, we present the first interannual comparison of SO2 emissions and the satellite SO2 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for Indian coal-fired power plants during the OMI era of 2005-2012. A detailed unit-based inventory is developed for the Indian coal-fired power sector, and results show that its SO2 emissions increased dramatically by 71 percent during 2005-2012. Using the oversampling technique, yearly high-resolution OMI maps for the whole domain of India are created, and they reveal a continuous increase in SO2 columns over India. Power plant regions with annual SO2 emissions greater than 50 Gg year-1 produce statistically significant OMI signals, and a high correlation (R equals 0.93) is found between SO2 emissions and OMI-observed SO2 burdens. Contrary to the decreasing trend of national mean SO2 concentrations reported by the Indian Government, both the total OMI-observed SO2 and average SO2 concentrations in coal-fired power plant regions increased by greater than 60 percent during 2005-2012, implying the air quality monitoring network needs to be optimized to reflect the true SO2 situation in India

Comparing open and minimally invasive surgical procedures for oesophagectomy in the treatment of cancer: the ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) feasibility study and pilot trial

Localised oesophageal cancer can be curatively treated with surgery (oesophagectomy) but the procedure is complex with a risk of complications, negative effects on quality of life and a recovery period of 6-9 months. Minimal-access surgery may accelerate recovery.The ROMIO (Randomised Oesophagectomy: Minimally Invasive or Open) study aimed to establish the feasibility of, and methodology for, a definitive trial comparing minimally invasive and open surgery for oesophagectomy. Objectives were to quantify the number of eligible patients in a pilot trial; develop surgical manuals as the basis for quality assurance; standardise pathological processing; establish a method to blind patients to their allocation in the first week post surgery; identify measures of postsurgical outcome of importance to patients and clinicians; and establish the main cost differences between the surgical approaches.Pilot parallel three-arm randomised controlled trial nested within feasibility work.Two UK NHS departments of upper gastrointestinal surgery.Patients aged ≥ 18 years with histopathological evidence of oesophageal or oesophagogastric junctional adenocarcinoma, squamous cell cancer or high-grade dysplasia, referred for oesophagectomy or oesophagectomy following neoadjuvant chemo(radio)therapy.Oesophagectomy, with patients randomised to open surgery, a hybrid open chest and minimally invasive abdomen or totally minimally invasive access.The primary outcome measure for the pilot trial was the number of patients recruited per month, with the main trial considered feasible if at least 2.5 patients per month were recruited.During 21 months of recruitment, 263 patients were assessed for eligibility; of these, 135 (51%) were found to be eligible and 104 (77%) agreed to participate, an average of five patients per month. In total, 41 patients were allocated to open surgery, 43 to the hybrid procedure and 20 to totally minimally invasive surgery. Recruitment is continuing, allowing a seamless transition into the definitive trial. Consequently, the database is unlocked at the time of writing and data presented here are for patients recruited by 31 August 2014. Random allocation achieved a good balance between the arms of the study, which, as a high proportion of patients underwent their allocated surgery (69/79, 87%), ensured a fair comparison between the interventions. Dressing patients with large bandages, covering all possible incisions, was successful in keeping patients blind while pain was assessed during the first week post surgery. Postsurgical length of stay and risk of adverse events were within the typical range for this group of patients, with one death occurring within 30 days among 76 patients. There were good completion rates for the assessment of pain at 6 days post surgery (88%) and of the patient-reported outcomes at 6 weeks post randomisation (74%).Rapid recruitment to the pilot trial and the successful refinement of methodology indicated the feasibility of a definitive trial comparing different approaches to oesophagectomy. Although we have shown a full trial of open compared with minimally invasive oesophagectomy to be feasible, this is necessarily based on our findings from the two clinical centres that we could include in this small preliminary study.Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN59036820.This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 48. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

A high throughput zebrafish chemical screen reveals ALK5 and non-canonical androgen signalling as modulators of the pkd2−/− phenotype

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the most common monogenic cause of end-stage renal failure in humans and results from germline mutations in PKD1 or PKD2. Despite the recent approval of tolvaptan, safer and more effective alternative drugs are clearly needed to slow disease progression. As a first step in drug discovery, we conducted an unbiased chemical screen on zebrafish pkd2 mutant embryos using two publicly available compound libraries (Spectrum, PKIS) totalling 2,367 compounds to identify novel treatments for ADPKD. Using dorsal tail curvature as the assay readout, three major chemical classes (steroids, coumarins, flavonoids) were identified from the Spectrum library as the most promising candidates to be tested on human PKD1 cystic cells. Amongst these were an androgen, 5α−androstane 3,17-dione, detected as the strongest enhancer of the pkd2 phenotype but whose effect was found to be independent of the canonical androgen receptor pathway. From the PKIS library, we identified several ALK5 kinase inhibitors as strong suppressors of the pkd2 tail phenotype and in vitro cyst expansion. In summary, our results identify ALK5 and non-canonical androgen receptors as potential therapeutic targets for further evaluation in drug development for ADPKD

Evaluating regional emission estimates using the TRACE-P observations

Measurements obtained during the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment are used in conjunction with regional modeling analysis to evaluate emission estimates for Asia. A comparison between the modeled values and the observations is one method to evaluate emissions. Based on such analysis it is concluded that the inventory performs well for the light alkanes, CO, ethyne, SO2, and NOₓ. Furthermore, based on model skill in predicting important photochemical species such as O₃, HCHO, OH, HO₂, and HNO₃, it is found that the emissions inventories are of sufficient quality to support preliminary studies of ozone production. These are important finding in light of the fact that emission estimates for many species (such as speciated NMHCs and BC) for this region have only recently been estimated and are highly uncertain. Using a classification of the measurements built upon trajectory analysis, we compare observed species distributions and ratios of species to those modeled and to ratios estimated from the emissions inventory. It is shown that this technique can reconstruct a spatial distribution of propane/benzene that looks remarkably similar to that calculated from the emissions inventory. A major discrepancy between modeled and observed behavior is found in the Yellow Sea, where modeled values are systematically underpredicted. The integrated analysis suggests that this may be related to an underestimation of emissions from the domestic sector. The emission is further tested by comparing observed and measured species ratios in identified megacity plumes. Many of the model derived ratios (e.g., BC/CO, SOₓ/C₂H₂) fall within ∼25% of those observed and all fall outside of a factor of 2.5. (See Article file for details of the abstract.)Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringAuthor name used in this publication: Wang, T