Contrasting contributions of surface hydrological pathways in convection permitting and parameterised climate simulations over Africa and their feedbacks on the atmosphere

The partitioning of rainfall at the land surface into interception, infiltration and surface runoff plays an important role in the water cycle as it controls the time scale at which water returns to the atmosphere. Rainfall intensity is of crucial importance to this partition. High resolution convection permitting models significantly improve simulated sub-daily rainfall intensity distributions, in particular those associated with convective rainfall in the tropics. Here we compare the land surface hydrological response in a pair of 10-year simulations over an African domain performed using the Met Office Unified Model: a typical configuration using parameterised convection operating at 25 km and the second a high resolution convection permitting simulation at 4.5 km with the parametrized convection switched off. Overall pan-African interception in the convection permitting scheme is 70% lower, whilst surface runoff is 43% higher than the parameterized convection model. These changes are driven by less frequent, but more intense rainfall with a 25% increase in rainfall above 20 mm h−1 in the 4.5 km model. The parameterised scheme has a ~ 50% canopy water contribution to evaporative fraction which is negligible in the convection permitting scheme. Conversely, the convection permitting scheme has higher throughfall and infiltration leading to higher soil moisture in the weeks following rain resulting in a 30–50% decrease in the daytime sensible heat flux. We examine how important the sub-grid rainfall parameterisation in the model is for the differences between the two configurations. We show how, switching a convective parameterisation off can substantially impact land surface behaviour

Capturing convection essential for projections of climate change in African dust emission

From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications RouterHistory: received 2019-08-07, accepted 2021-07-30, registration 2021-08-31, pub-electronic 2021-09-24, online 2021-09-24, collection 2021-12Publication status: PublishedFunder: RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000270; Grant(s): NE/M017176/1, NE/L005352/1, NE/M017176/1, NE/M017176/1Abstract: The summertime Sahara and Sahel are the world’s largest source of airborne mineral dust. Cold-pool outflows from moist convection (‘haboobs’) are a dominant source of summertime uplift but are essentially missing in global models, raising major questions on the reliability of climate projections of dust and dust impacts. Here we use convection-permitting simulations of pan-African climate change, which explicitly capture haboobs, to investigate whether this key limitation of global models affects projections. We show that explicit convection is key to capturing the observed summertime maximum of dust-generating winds, which is missed with parameterised convection. Despite this, future climate changes in dust-generating winds are more sensitive to the effects of explicit convection on the wider meteorology than they are to the haboobs themselves, with model differences in the change in dust-generating winds reaching 60% of current values. The results therefore show the importance of improving convection in climate models for dust projections

Can HbA1c detect undiagnosed diabetes in acute medical hospital admissions?

Objective: to study hyperglycaemia in acute medical admissions to Irish regional hospital.Research design and methods: from 2005 to 2007, 2061 white Caucasians, aged &gt;18 years, were admitted by 1/7 physicians. Those with diabetes symptoms/complications but no previous record of hyperglycaemia (n = 390), underwent OGTT with concurrent HbA1c in representative subgroup (n = 148). Comparable data were obtained for 108 primary care patients at risk of diabetes.Results: diabetes was diagnosed immediately by routine practice in 1% (22/2061) [aged 36 (26–61) years (median IQ range)/55% (12/22) male] with pre-existing diabetes/dysglycaemia present in 19% (390/2061) [69 (58–80) years/60% (235/390) male].Possible diabetes symptoms/complications were identified in 19% [70 (59–79) years/57% (223/390) male] with their HbA1c similar to primary care patients [54 (46–61) years], 5.7 (5.3–6.0)%/39 (34–42) mmol/mol (n = 148) vs 5.7 (5.4–6.1)%/39 (36–43) mmol/mol, p = 0.35, but lower than those diagnosed on admission, 10.2 (7.4–13.3)%/88 (57–122) mmol/mol, p &lt; 0.001. Their fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was similar to primary care patients, 5.2 (4.8–5.7) vs 5.2 (4.8–5.9) mmol/L, p = 0.65, but 2hPG higher, 9.0 (7.3–11.4) vs 5.5 (4.4–7.5), p &lt; 0.001.HbA1c identified diabetes in 10% (15/148) with 14 confirmed on OGTT but overall 32% (48/148) were in diabetic range on OGTT. The specificity of HbA1c in 2061 admissions was similar to primary care, 99% vs 96%, p = 0.20, but sensitivity lower, 38% vs 93%, p &lt; 0.001 (63% on FPG/23% on 2hPG, p = 0.037, in those with possible symptoms/complications).Conclusion: HbA1c can play a diagnostic role in acute medicine as it diagnosed another 2% of admissions with diabetes but the discrepancy in sensitivity shows that it does not reflect transient/acute hyperglycaemia resulting from the acute medical event.</p

Comparison of IFCC-calibrated HbA1c from laboratory and point of care testing systems

Objective: WHO, IDF and ADA recommend HbA1c ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) for diagnosis of diabetes with pre-diabetes 6.0% (42 mmol/mol) [WHO] or 5.7% (39 mmol/mol) [ADA] to 6.4% (47 mmol/mol). We have compared HbA1c from several methods for research relating glycaemic markers.Research design and methods: HbA1c was measured in EDTA blood from 128 patients with diabetes on IE HPLC analysers (Bio-Rad Variant II NU, Menarini HA8160 and Tosoh G8), point of care systems, POCT, (A1cNow+ disposable cartridges and DCA 2000®+ analyser), affinity chromatography (Primus Ultra2) and the IFCC secondary reference method (Menarini HA8160 calibrated using IFCC SRM protocol).Results: median (IQ range) on IFCC SRM was 7.5% (6.8–8.4) (58(51–68) mmol/mol) HbA1c with minimum 5.3%(34 mmol/mol)/maximum 11.9%(107 mmol/mol). There were positive offsets between IFCC SRM and Bio-Rad Variant II NU, mean difference (1SD), +0.33%(0.17) (+3.6(1.9) mmol/mol), r2 = 0.984, p &lt; 0.001 and Tosoh G8, +0.22%(0.20) (2.4(2.2) mmol/mol), r2 = 0.976, p &lt; 0.001 with a very small negative difference −0.04%(0.11) (−0.4(1.2) mmol/mol), r2 = 0.992, p &lt; 0.001 for Menarini HA8160. POCT methods were less precise with negative offsets for DCA 2000®+ analyser −0.13%(0.28) (−1.4(3.1) mmol/mol), r2 = 0.955, p &lt; 0.001 and A1cNow+ cartridges −0.70%(0.67) (−7.7(7.3) mmol/mol), r2 = 0.699, p &lt; 0.001 (n = 113). Positive biases for Tosoh and Bio-Rad (compared with IFCC SRM) have been eliminated by subsequent revision of calibration.Conclusions: small differences observed between IFCC-calibrated and NGSP certified methods across a wide HbA1c range were confirmed by quality control and external quality assurance. As these offsets affect estimates of diabetes prevalence, the analyser (and calibrator) employed should be considered when evaluating diagnostic data.</p

A pan-African convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

A convection-permitting multi-year regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) IMPALA (Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte) project and its configuration, domain and forcing data are described here in detail. The model (CP4-Africa) uses a 4.5km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parametrization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea-surface which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parametrizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface and aerosol climatologies of the CP4-Africa model, has been run to aid understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parametrization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in the CP4-Africa model is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first 5 years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa - giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent

Genome-wide linkage screen for testicular germ cell tumour susceptibility loci

A family history of disease is a strong risk factor for testicular germ cell tumour (TGCT). In order to identify the location of putative TGCT susceptibility gene(s) we conducted a linkage search in 237 pedigrees with two or more cases of TGCT. One hundred and seventy-nine pedigrees were evaluated genome-wide with an average inter-marker distance of 10 cM. An additional 58 pedigrees were used to more intensively investigate several genomic regions of interest. Genetic linkage analysis was performed with the ALLEGRO software using two model-based parametric analyses and a non-parametric analysis. Six genomic regions on chromosomes 2p23, 3p12, 3q26, 12p13-q21, 18q21-q23 and Xq27 showed heterogeneity LOD (HLOD) scores of greater than 1, with a maximum HLOD of 1.94 at 3q26. Genome-wide simulation studies indicate that the observed number of HLOD peaks greater than one does not differ significantly from that expected by chance. A TGCT locus at Xq27 has been previously reported. Of the 237 pedigrees examined in this study, 66 were previously unstudied at Xq27, no evidence for linkage to this region was observed in this new pedigree set. Overall, the results indicate that no single major locus can account for the majority of the familial aggregation of TGCT, and suggests that multiple susceptibility loci with weak effects contribute to the diseas

Associations of ATR and CHEK1 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms with Breast Cancer

DNA damage and replication checkpoints mediated by the ATR-CHEK1 pathway are key to the maintenance of genome stability, and both ATR and CHEK1 have been proposed as potential breast cancer susceptibility genes. Many novel variants recently identified by the large resequencing projects have not yet been thoroughly tested in genome-wide association studies for breast cancer susceptibility. We therefore used a tagging SNP (tagSNP) approach based on recent SNP data available from the 1000 genomes projects, to investigate the roles of ATR and CHEK1 in breast cancer risk and survival. ATR and CHEK1 tagSNPs were genotyped in the Sheffield Breast Cancer Study (SBCS; 1011 cases and 1024 controls) using Illumina GoldenGate assays. Untyped SNPs were imputed using IMPUTE2, and associations between genotype and breast cancer risk and survival were evaluated using logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression models respectively on a per allele basis. Significant associations were further examined in a meta-analysis of published data or confirmed in the Utah Breast Cancer Study (UBCS). The most significant associations for breast cancer risk in SBCS came from rs6805118 in ATR (p=7.6x10-5) and rs2155388 in CHEK1 (p=3.1x10-6), but neither remained significant after meta-analysis with other studies. However, meta-analysis of published data revealed a weak association between the ATR SNP rs1802904 (minor allele frequency is 12%) and breast cancer risk, with a summary odds ratio (confidence interval) of 0.90 (0.83-0.98) [p=0.0185] for the minor allele. Further replication of this SNP in larger studies is warranted since it is located in the target region of 2 microRNAs. No evidence of any survival effects of ATR or CHEK1 SNPs were identified. We conclude that common alleles of ATR and CHEK1 are not implicated in breast cancer risk or survival, but we cannot exclude effects of rare alleles and of common alleles with very small effect sizes

A systematic review of dietary, nutritional, and physical activity interventions for the prevention of prostate cancer progression and mortality

PURPOSE: Given the long-term, although potentially fatal, nature of prostate cancer, there is increasing observational evidence for the reduction in disease progression and mortality through changes in lifestyle factors. METHODS: We systematically reviewed dietary, nutritional, and physical activity randomized interventions aimed at modifying prostate cancer progression and disease-specific mortality, including a detailed assessment of risk of bias and methodological quality. RESULTS: Forty-four randomized controlled trials of lifestyle interventions, with prostate cancer progression or mortality outcomes, were identified. Substantial heterogeneity of the data prevented a meta-analysis. The included trials involved 3,418 prostate cancer patients, median 64 men per trial, from 13 countries. A trial of a nutritional supplement of pomegranate seed, green tea, broccoli, and turmeric; a trial comparing flaxseed, low-fat diet, flaxseed, and low-fat diet versus usual diet; and a trial supplementing soy, lycopene, selenium, and coenzyme Q10, all demonstrated beneficial effects. These trials were also assessed as having low risk of bias and high methodological quality (as were seven other trials with no evidence of benefit). The remaining trials were either underpowered, at high or unclear risk of bias, inadequately reported, of short duration or measured surrogate outcomes of unproven relationship to mortality or disease progression, which precluded any benefits reported being reliable. CONCLUSION: Large, well-designed randomized trials with clinical endpoints are recommended for lifestyle modification interventions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10552-015-0659-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Scleroderma and related disorders: 223. Long Term Outcome in a Contemporary Systemic Sclerosis Cohort

Background: We have previously compared outcome in two groups of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients with disease onset a decade apart and we reported data on 5 year survival and cumulative incidence of organ disease in a contemporary SSc cohort. The present study examines longer term outcome in an additional cohort of SSc followed for 10 years. Methods: We have examined patients with disease onset between years 1995 and 1999 allowing for at least 10 years of follow-up in a group that has characteristics representative for the patients we see in contemporary clinical practice. Results: Of the 398 patients included in the study, 252 (63.3%) had limited cutaneous (lc) SSc and 146 (36.7%) had diffuse cutaneous (dc) SSc. The proportion of male patients was higher among the dcSSc group (17.1% v 9.9%, p = 0.037) while the mean age of onset was significantly higher among lcSSc patients (50 ± 13 v 46 ± 13 years ± SD, p = 0.003). During a 10 year follow-up from disease onset, 45% of the dcSSc and 21% of the lcSSc subjects developed clinically significant pulmonary fibrosis, p < 0.001. Among them approximately half reached the endpoint within the first 3 years (23% of dcSSc and 10% of lcSSc) and over three quarters within the first 5 years (34% and 16% respectively). There was a similar incidence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in the two subsets with a steady rate of increase over time. At 10 years 13% of dcSSc and 15% of lcSSc subjects had developed PH (p=0.558), with the earliest cases observed within the first 2 years of disease. Comparison between subjects who developed PH in the first and second 5 years from disease onset demonstrated no difference in demographic or clinical characteristics, but 5-year survival from PH onset was better among those who developed this complication later in their disease (49% v 24%), with a strong trend towards statistical significance (p = 0.058). Incidence of SSc renal crisis (SRC) was significantly higher among the dcSSc patients (12% v 4% in lcSSc, p = 0.002). As previously observed, the rate of development of SRC was highest in the first 3 years of disease- 10% in dcSSc and 3% in lcSSc. All incidences of clinically important cardiac disease developed in the first 5 years from disease onset (7% in dcSSc v 1% in lcSSc, p < 0.001) and remained unchanged at 10 years. As expected, 10-year survival among lcSSc subjects was significantly higher (81%) compared to that of dcSSc patients (70%, p = 0.006). Interestingly, although over the first 5 years the death rate was much higher in the dcSSc cohort (16% v 6% in lcSSc), over the following years it became very similar for both subsets (14% and 13% between years 5 and 10, and 18% and 17% between years 10 and 15 for dcSSc and lcSSc respectively). Conclusions: Even though dcSSc patients have higher incidence for most organ complications compared to lcSSc subjects, the worse survival among them is mainly due to higher early mortality rate. Mortality rate after first 5 years of disease becomes comparable in the two disease subsets. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Hepatitis C infection: eligibility for antiviral therapies

peer reviewedBackground Current treatments of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) are effective, but expensive and susceptible to induce significant side effects. Objectives To evaluate the proportion of HCV patients who are eligible for a treatment. Methods In a database comprising 1726 viraemic HCV patients, the files of 299 patients who presented to the same hepatologist for an initial appointment between 1996 and 2003 were reviewed. Results Patients' characteristics were age 43.1 +/- 15.6 years, 53% male and 92% Caucasian. The main risk factors were transfusion (43%) and drug use (22%). Genotypes were mostly genotype 1 (66%), genotype 3 (12%) and genotype 2 (10%). These characteristics were not different from those of the whole series of 1726 patients. A total of 176 patients (59%) were not treated, the reasons for non-treatment being medical contraindications (34%), non-compliance (25%) and normal transaminases (24%). In addition, 17% of patients declined therapy despite being considered as eligible, mainly due to fear of adverse events. Medical contraindications were psychiatric (27%), age (22%), end-stage liver disease (15%), willingness for pregnancy (13%), cardiac contraindication (7%) and others (16%). Only 123 patients (41%) were treated. A sustained viral response was observed in 41%. The treatment was interrupted in 16% for adverse events. Conclusions The majority of HCV patients are not eligible for treatment. This implies that, with current therapies, only 17% of patients referred for chronic HCV become sustained responders. Some modifications of guidelines could extend the rate of treatment (patients with normal transaminases), but an important barrier remains the patients' and the doctors' fear of adverse events