Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks?

International audienceIn January/February 2006, heavy snowfalls in Bavaria (Germany) lead to a series of infrastructural damage of catastrophic nature. Since on many collapsed roofs the total snow load was not exceptional, serious engineering deficiencies in roof construction and a sudden rise in the total snow load were considered to be the trigger of the events. An analysis of the then meteorological conditions reveals, that the early winter of 2005/2006 was characterised by an exceptional continuous snow cover, temperatures remained around the freezing point and no significant snowmelt was evident. The frequent freezing/thawing cycles were followed by a general compaction of the snow load. This resulted in a re-distribution and a new concentration of the snow load on specific locations on roofs. With respect to climate change, the question arises as to whether the risks relating to snow loads will increase. The future probability of a continuous snow cover occurrence with frequent freezing/thawing cycles will probably decline due to predicted higher temperatures. However, where temperatures remain low, an increase in winter precipitation will result in increased snow loads. Furthermore, the variability of extremes is predicted to increase. If heavy snowfall events are more frequent, the risk of a trigger event will likely increase. Finally, an attempt will be made here in this paper to outline a concept for an operational warning system for the Bavarian region. This system envisages to predict the development and risk of critical snow loads for a 3-day time period, utilising a combination of climate and snow modelling data and using this together with a snow pillow device (located on roofs) and the results of which

1420 MHz Continuum Absorption Towards Extragalactic Sources in the Galactic Plane

We present a 21-cm emission-absorption study towards extragalactic sources in the Canadian Galactic Plane Survey (CGPS). We have analyzed HI spectra towards 437 sources with S > 150 mJy, giving us a source density of 0.6 sources per square degree at arcminute resolution. We present the results of a first analysis of the HI temperatures, densities, and feature statistics. Particular emphasis is placed on 5 features with observed spin temperatures below 40 K. We find most spin temperatures in the range from 40 K to 300 K. A simple HI two-component model constrains the bulk of the cold component to temperatures (T_c) between 40 K and 100 K. T_c peaks in the Perseus arm region and clearly drops off with Galactocentric radius, R, beyond that. The HI density follows this trend, ranging from a local value of 0.4 cm^{-3} to less than 0.1 cm^{-3} at R = 20 kpc. We find that HI emission alone on average traces about 75% of the total HI column density, as compared to the total inferred by the emission and absorption. Comparing the neutral hydrogen absorption to CO emission no correlation is found in general, but all strong CO emission is accompanied by a visible HI spectral feature. Finally, the number of spectral HI absorption features per kpc drop off exponentially with increasing R.Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures, Accepted for March 2004 Ap

of in- side-canopy conditions

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the spreadsheet-based point energy balance model ESCIMO.spread which simulates the energy and mass balance as well as melt rates at the snow surface. The model makes use of hourly recordings of temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and incoming global and longwave radiation. In the new second version (v2) we include parameterizations for the modification of the meteorological variables inside a canopy, and the interception and sublimation of snow from the trees. The canopy type is described by means of leaf area index, density and height. The effect of potential climate change on the seasonal evolution of the snow cover can be estimated by modifying the time series of observed temperature and precipitation with adjustable parameters. Model output is graphically visualized in hourly and daily diagrams. The results compare well with weekly measured snow water equivalent (SWE). The model is easily portable and adjustable, and runs particularly fast on any spreadsheet-capable computer platform

A 5 km resolution regional climate simulation for Central Europe: Performance in high mountain areas and seasonal, regional and elevation-dependent variations

Mountain regions with complex orography are a particular challenge for regional climate simulations. High spatial resolution is required to account for the high spatial variability in meteorological conditions. This study presents a very high-resolution regional climate simulation (5 km) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for the central part of Europe including the Alps. Global boundaries are dynamically downscaled for the historical period 1980–2009 (ERA-Interim and MPI-ESM), and for the near future period 2020–2049 (MPI-ESM, scenario RCP4.5). Model results are compared to gridded observation datasets and to data from a dense meteorological station network in the Berchtesgaden Alps (Germany). Averaged for the Alps, the mean bias in temperature is about −0.3 °C, whereas precipitation is overestimated by +14% to +19%. R$^{2}$ values for hourly, daily and monthly temperature range between 0.71 and 0.99. Temporal precipitation dynamics are well reproduced at daily and monthly scales (R$^{2}$ between 0.36 and 0.85), but are not well captured at hourly scale. The spatial patterns, seasonal distributions, and elevation-dependencies of the climate change signals are investigated. Mean warming in Central Europe exhibits a temperature increase between 0.44 °C and 1.59 °C and is strongest in winter and spring. An elevation-dependent warming is found for different specific regions and seasons, but is absent in others. Annual precipitation changes between −4% and +25% in Central Europe. The change signals for humidity, wind speed, and incoming short-wave radiation are small, but they show distinct spatial and elevation-dependent patterns. On large-scale spatial and temporal averages, the presented 5 km RCM setup has in general similar biases as EURO-CORDEX simulations, but it shows very good model performance at the regional and local scale for daily meteorology, and, apart from wind-speed and precipitation, even for hourly values

ESCIMO.spread (v2) : parameterization of a spreadsheet-based energy balance snow model for inside-canopy conditions

This article describes the extension of the ESCIMO.spread spreadsheet-based point energy balance snow model by (i) an advanced approach for precipitation phase detection, (ii) a method for cold content and liquid water storage consideration and (iii) a canopy sub-model that allows the quantification of canopy effects on the meteorological conditions inside the forest as well as the simulation of snow accumulation and ablation inside a forest stand. To provide the data for model application and evaluation, innovative low-cost snow monitoring systems (SnoMoS) have been utilized that allow the collection of important meteorological and snow information inside and outside the canopy. The model performance with respect to both, the modification of meteorological conditions as well as the subsequent calculation of the snow cover evolution, are evaluated using inside- and outside-canopy observations of meteorological variables and snow cover evolution as provided by a pair of SnoMoS for a site in the Black Forest mountain range (southwestern Germany). The validation results for the simulated snow water equivalent with Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency values of 0.81 and 0.71 and root mean square errors of 8.26 and 18.07 mm indicate a good overall model performance inside and outside the forest canopy, respectively. The newly developed version of the model referred to as ESCIMO.spread (v2) is provided free of charge together with 1 year of sample data including the meteorological data and snow observations used in this study