A landscape-level analysis of urbanization influence and spatial structure in chaparral breeding birds of the Santa Monica Mountains, CA

Master of ScienceNatural Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Michiganhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/114519/2/39015043005266.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/114519/4/license_rd

Evaluating Tidal Marsh Sustainability in the Face of Sea-Level Rise: A Hybrid Modeling Approach Applied to San Francisco Bay

Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities.Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios.Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (-0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats.Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr)

Implications of historical and contemporary processes on genetic differentiation of a declining boreal songbird: the rusty blackbird

The arrangement of habitat features via historical or contemporary events can strongly influence genomic and demographic connectivity, and in turn affect levels of genetic diversity and resilience of populations to environmental perturbation. The rusty blackbird (Euphagus carolinus) is a forested wetland habitat specialist whose population size has declined sharply (78%) over recent decades. The species breeds across the expansive North American boreal forest region, which contains a mosaic of habitat conditions resulting from active natural disturbance regimes and glacial history. We used landscape genomics to evaluate how past and present landscape features have shaped patterns of genetic diversity and connectivity across the species’ breeding range. Based on reduced-representation genomic and mitochondrial DNA, genetic structure followed four broad patterns influenced by both historical and contemporary forces: (1) an east–west partition consistent with vicariance during the last glacial maximum; (2) a potential secondary contact zone between eastern and western lineages at James Bay, Ontario; (3) insular differentiation of birds on Newfoundland; and (4) restricted regional gene flow among locales within western and eastern North America. The presence of genomic structure and therefore restricted dispersal among populations may limit the species’ capacity to respond to rapid environmental change

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages

Velocity-based macrorefugia for boreal passerine birds

<p>Velocity-based macrorefugia for boreal passerine birds                            <br>                             <br> Citation for dataset                            <br> --------------------                            <br> Stralberg, D. Velocity-based macrorefugia for boreal passerine birds. Boreal Avian Modelling Project. Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1299880                            <br> https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1299880                            <br>                             <br> Data layers                             <br> -----------------                            <br> Refugia layers represent mid-century (2041-2070) and end-of-century (2071-2100) conditions for the SRES A2 emissions scenario at 4-km resolution                            <br> -----------------                            <br> Combined index for 53 species (clipped to Brandt's boreal region):                             <br> _refbrandt53_YYYYZZZZ                            <br>                             <br> Species-specific indices:                            <br> XXXX_refYYYY                            <br>                             <br> where:                            <br> YYYY = Time period (2050s or 2080s)                            <br> ZZZZ = weighted or unweighted                            <br> XXXX = Songbird Species Code (see Birdlookup.csv)                            <br>                             <br> Percentile values of refugia indices for mapping purposes                            <br>     0.01    0.1    0.25    0.5    0.75    0.9    0.99<br> "2050s, weighted "    0.032    0.243    0.317    0.399    0.484    0.589    0.779<br> "2080s, weighted"    0.002    0.09    0.137    0.2    0.281    0.386    0.675<br> "2050s, unweighted"    0.006    0.108    0.159    0.218    0.292    0.358    0.421<br> "2080s, unweighted"    0.001    0.055    0.083    0.123    0.185    0.241    0.297<br>                             <br>                             <br> Projection information                            <br> -------------------                            <br> """+proj=lcc +lat_1=49 +lat_2=77 +lat_0=0 +lon_0=-95 +x_0=0 +y_0=0 +ellps=GRS80 +units=m +no_defs"""                            <br> -------------------                            <br> Projection    LAMBERT                            <br> Spheroid      GRS80                            <br> Units         METERS                            <br> Zunits        NO                            <br> Xshift        0.0                            <br> Yshift        0.0                            <br> Parameters                                <br>   49  0  0.0 /* 1st standard parallel                            <br>   77  0  0.0 /* 2nd standard parallel                            <br>  -95  0  0.0 /* central meridian                            <br>    0  0  0.0 /* latitude of projection's origin                            <br> 0.0 /* false easting (meters)                            <br> 0.0 /* false northing (meters)                            </p

Seamless integration of spatial statistics and GIS: The S-PLUS for ArcView and the S+ Grassland Links

The extension of the functional capacity of geographic information systems (GIS) with tools for statistical analysis in general and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) in particular has been an increasingly active area of research in recent years. In this paper, two operational implementations that combine the functionality of spatial data analysis software with a GIS are considered more closely. They consist of linkages between the S-PLUS software for data analysis and two different GIS implementations, the ArcView desktop system, which is mostly vector-oriented, and the primarily raster-based Grassland open GIS environment. We emphasize conceptual and technical issues related to the software implementation of these approaches and suggest future directions for linking spatial statistics and GIS.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42345/1/10109-2-3-287_00020287.pd

Prioritizing Areas for Land Conservation and Forest Management Planning for the Threatened Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) in the Atlantic Northern Forest of Canada

Populations of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) are declining in Canada&rsquo;s Atlantic Northern Forest. Land conservancies and government agencies are interested in identifying areas to protect populations, while some timber companies wish to manage forests to minimize impacts on Canada Warbler and potentially create future habitat. We developed seven conservation planning scenarios using Zonation software to prioritize candidate areas for permanent land conservation (4 scenarios) or responsible forest management (minimizing species removal during forest harvesting while promoting colonization of regenerated forest; 3 scenarios). Factors used to prioritize areas included Canada Warbler population density, connectivity to protected areas, future climate suitability, anthropogenic disturbance, and recent Canada Warbler observations. We analyzed each scenario for three estimates of natal dispersal distance (5, 10, and 50 km). We found that scenarios assuming large dispersal distances prioritized a few large hotspots, while low dispersal distance scenarios prioritized smaller, broadly distributed areas. For all scenarios, efficiency (proportion of current Canada Warbler population retained per unit area) declined with higher dispersal distance estimates and inclusion of climate change effects in the scenario. Using low dispersal distance scenarios in decision-making offers a more conservative approach to maintaining this species at risk. Given the differences among the scenarios, we encourage conservation planners to evaluate the reliability of dispersal estimates, the influence of habitat connectivity, and future climate suitability when prioritizing areas for conservation

Spatial priorities for climate-change refugia and connectivity for British Columbia (Version 1.0)

&lt;p&gt;Climate-informed conservation priorities in British Columbia (Version 1.0)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Territorial acknowledgement:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We respectfully acknowledge that we live and work across diverse unceded territories and treaty lands and pay our respects to the First Nations, Inuit and M&eacute;tis ancestors of these places. &nbsp;We honour our connections to these lands and waters and reaffirm our relationships with one another.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Suggested citation:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Stolar, J., D. Stralberg, I. Naujokaitis-Lewis, S.E. Nielsen, and G. Kehm. &nbsp;2023. &nbsp;Spatial priorities for climate-change refugia and connectivity for British Columbia (Version 1.0).&nbsp;Place of publication: University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.8333303&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Corresponding author: [email protected]&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Summary:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The purpose of this project is to identify spatial locations of (a) vulnerabilities within British Columbia&rsquo;s current network of protected areas and (b) priorities for conservation and management of natural landscapes within British Columbia under a range of future climate-change scenarios. This involved adaptation and implementation of existing continental- and provincial-scale frameworks for identifying areas that have potential to serve as refugia from climate change or corridors for species migration.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Outcomes of this work include the provision of practical guidance for protected areas network design and vulnerabilities identification under climate change, with application to other regions and jurisdictions. Project results, in the form of multiple spatial prioritization scenarios, may be used to evaluate the resilience of the existing protected area network and other conservation designations to better understand the risks to British Columbia&rsquo;s biodiversity in our changing climate.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Description:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;These raster layers represent different scenarios of Zonation rankings of conservation priorities for climate resilience and connectivity between current and 2080s conditions for a provincial-scale analysis. &nbsp;Input conservation features included metrics of macrorefugia (forward and backward climate velocity (km/year), overlapping future and current habitat suitability for ~900 rare species in BC), microrefugia (presence of old growth ecosystems, drought refugia, glaciers/cool slopes/wetlands, and geodiversity), and connectivity. &nbsp;Please see details in the accompanying report.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; File nomenclature:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;.zip folder (Stolar_et_al_2023_CiCP_Zenodo_upload_Version_1.0.zip):&lt;br&gt; Contains the files listed below.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Macrorefugia (2080s_macrorefugia.tif):&lt;br&gt; Scenarios for each taxonomic group (equal weightings for all species) (Core-area Zonation Function)&lt;br&gt; Climate-type velocity + species scenarios from above (Core-area Zonation; equal weightings)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Microrefugia (microrefugia.tif):&lt;br&gt; Scenario with old growth forest habitat, landscape geodiversity, wetlands/cool slopes/glaciers, drought refugia (Core-area Zonation; equal weightings)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Overall scenario (2080s_macro_micro_connectivity.tif):&lt;br&gt; Inputs from above (with equal weightings) + connectivity metrics (each weighted at 0.1) &nbsp;(Additive Benefit Function Zonation)&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conservation priorities (Conservation_priorities_2080s.tif):&lt;br&gt; Overall scenario from above extracted to regions of low human footprint.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Restoration priorities (Restoration_priorities_2080s.tif):&lt;br&gt; Overall scenario from above extracted to regions of high human footprint.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Accompanying report (Stolar_et_al_2023_CiCP_Zenodo_upload_Version_1.0.pdf):&lt;br&gt; Documentation of rationale, methods and interpretation.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;READ_ME file (READ_ME_PLEASE.txt):&lt;br&gt; Metadata.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Legend interpretation:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Ranked Zonation priorities increase from 0 (lowest) to 1 (highest).&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Raster information:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Columns and Rows: 1597, 1368&lt;br&gt; Number of Bands: 1&lt;br&gt; Cell Size (X, Y): 1000, 1000&lt;br&gt; Format: TIFF&lt;br&gt; Pixel Type: floating point&nbsp;&lt;br&gt; Compression: LZW&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Spatial reference:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;XY Coordinate System: NAD_1983_Albers&lt;br&gt; Linear Unit: Meter (1.000000)&lt;br&gt; Angular Unit: Degree (0.0174532925199433)&lt;br&gt; false_easting: 1000000&lt;br&gt; false_northing: 0&lt;br&gt; central_meridian: -126&lt;br&gt; standard_parallel_1: 50&lt;br&gt; standard_parallel_2: 58.5&lt;br&gt; latitude_of_origin: 45&lt;br&gt; Datum: D_North_American_1983&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Extent:&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;West &nbsp;-139.061502 &nbsp; &nbsp;East &nbsp;-110.430823&nbsp;&lt;br&gt; North &nbsp;60.605550 &nbsp; &nbsp;South &nbsp;47.680823&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Disclaimer:&nbsp;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The University of Alberta (UofA) is furnishing this deliverable &quot;as is&quot;. UofA does not provide any warranty of the contents of the deliverable whatsoever, whether express, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty that the contents of the deliverable will be error-free.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt; Funding:&lt;br&gt; &nbsp;&nbsp;&lt;br&gt; We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Province of British Columbia through the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship) and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, the BC Parks Living Lab for Climate Change and Conservation, and the Wilburforce Foundation.&lt;/p&gt;We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of Environment and Climate Change Canada, the Province of British Columbia through the Ministry of Water, Land and Resource Stewardship) and the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy, the BC Parks Living Lab for Climate Change and Conservation, and the Wilburforce Foundation