An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model

PublishedJournal ArticleWe measure the potential of an observational data set to constrain a set of inputs to a complex and computationally expensive computer model. We use each member in turn of an ensemble of output from a computationally expensive model, corresponding to an observable part of a modelled system, as a proxy for an observational data set. We argue that, given some assumptions, our ability to constrain uncertain parameter inputs to a model using its own output as data, provides a maximum bound for our ability to constrain the model inputs using observations of the real system. The ensemble provides a set of known parameter input and model output pairs, which we use to build a computationally effic. © 2013 Author(s).This work was supported by funding from the ice2sea programme from the European Union 7th Framework Programme, grant number 226375. Ice2sea contribution number 154

Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate

Recent data compilations of the early Last Interglacial period have indicated a bipolar temperature response at 130 ka, with colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic and warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean and over Antarctica. However, climate model simulations of this period have been unable to reproduce this response, when only orbital and greenhouse gas forcings are considered in a climate model framework. Using a full-complexity general circulation model we perform climate model simulations representative of 130 ka conditions which include a magnitude of freshwater forcing derived from data at this time. We show that this meltwater from the remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the glacial-interglacial transition produces a modelled climate response similar to the observed colder-than-present temperatures in the North Atlantic at 130 ka and also results in warmer-than-present temperatures in the Southern Ocean via the bipolar seesaw mechanism. Further simulations in which the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also removed lead to warming in East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean but do not appreciably improve the model-data comparison. This integrated model-data approach provides evidence that Northern Hemisphere freshwater forcing is an important player in the evolution of early Last Interglacial climate.This work was carried out with funding from the UK-NERC consortium iGlass (NE/I009906/1) and is also a contribution to the European Union’s Seventh Framework programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement 243908, “Past4Future. Climate change – Learning from the past climate”. This is Past4Future contribution no. 85

Soliton pair creation in classical wave scattering

We study classical production of soliton-antisoliton pairs from colliding wave packets in (1+1)-dimensional scalar field model. Wave packets represent multiparticle states in quantum theory; we characterize them by energy E and particle number N. Sampling stochastically over the forms of wave packets, we find the entire region in (E,N) plane which corresponds to classical creation of soliton pairs. Particle number is parametrically large within this region meaning that the probability of soliton-antisoliton pair production in few-particle collisions is exponentially suppressed.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, journal version; misprint correcte

Gamma-gamma prime-gamma double prime dual-superlattice superalloys

Improving the efficiency of gas turbine engines requires the development of new materials capable of operating at higher temperatures and stresses. Here, we report on a new polycrystalline nickel-base superalloy that has exceptional strength and thermal stability. These properties have been achieved through a four-element composition that can form both gamma prime and gamma double prime precipitates in comparable volume fractions, creating an unusual dual-superlattice microstructure. Alloying studies have shown that further property improvements can be achieved, and that with development such alloys may be suitable for future engine applications

Clinical and genetic analysis of 29 Brazilian patients with Huntington’s disease-like phenotype

Huntington’s disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by chorea, behavioral disturbances and dementia, caused by a pathological expansion of the CAG trinucleotide in the HTT gene. Several patients have been recognized with the typical HD phenotype without the expected mutation. The objective of this study was to assess the occurrence of diseases such as Huntington’s disease-like 2 (HDL2), spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA) 1, SCA2, SCA3, SCA7, dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy (DRPLA) and choreaacanthocytosis (ChAc) among 29 Brazilian patients with a HD-like phenotype. In the group analyzed, we found 3 patients with HDL2 and 2 patients with ChAc. The diagnosis was not reached in 79.3% of the patients. HDL2 was the main cause of the HD-like phenotype in the group analyzed, and is attributable to the African ancestry of this population. However, the etiology of the disease remains undetermined in the majority of the HD negative patients with HD-like phenotype. Key words: Huntington’s disease, Huntington’s disease-like, chorea-acanthocytosis, Huntington’s disease-like 2

Detecting the orientation of magnetic fields in galaxy clusters

Clusters of galaxies, filled with hot magnetized plasma, are the largest bound objects in existence and an important touchstone in understanding the formation of structures in our Universe. In such clusters, thermal conduction follows field lines, so magnetic fields strongly shape the cluster's thermal history; that some have not since cooled and collapsed is a mystery. In a seemingly unrelated puzzle, recent observations of Virgo cluster spiral galaxies imply ridges of strong, coherent magnetic fields offset from their centre. Here we demonstrate, using three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical simulations, that such ridges are easily explained by galaxies sweeping up field lines as they orbit inside the cluster. This magnetic drape is then lit up with cosmic rays from the galaxies' stars, generating coherent polarized emission at the galaxies' leading edges. This immediately presents a technique for probing local orientations and characteristic length scales of cluster magnetic fields. The first application of this technique, mapping the field of the Virgo cluster, gives a startling result: outside a central region, the magnetic field is preferentially oriented radially as predicted by the magnetothermal instability. Our results strongly suggest a mechanism for maintaining some clusters in a 'non-cooling-core' state.Comment: 48 pages, 21 figures, revised version to match published article in Nature Physics, high-resolution version available at http://www.cita.utoronto.ca/~pfrommer/Publications/pfrommer-dursi.pd

Safety of immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine to reduce bleeding complications after infarct artery stenting for acute myocardial infarction and adjunctive abciximab therapy

Infarct artery stenting with adjunctive abciximab therapy is widely used treatment for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). However, bleeding complications have been associated with a worse clinical outcome. Randomized trials in elective patients have shown that postprocedural protamine administration is safe and associated with a significant reduction in bleeding complications. The aim of the current study was to evaluate in STEMI patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with abciximab and stenting whether immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine is safe and associated with a reduction in the occurrence of bleeding complications. From January 2004 to June 2005, 254 patients with STEMI had immediate reversal of anticoagulation by protamine administration after infarct artery stenting and received abciximab therapy without heparin infusion (Group 1). These patients were compared with a control group of 265 patients (June 2002–December 2003) treated with the standard heparin therapy: bolus in order to achieve an activated coagulation time of 250–300 s during PCI plus 12-h infusion (7 UI/kg/h; Group 2). We excluded patients undergoing IABP implantation. The two groups were similar in all baseline characteristics. There were no differences in in-hospital mortality, reinfarction, urgent target vessel revascularization, stroke or acute or subacute stent thrombosis, while Group 1 patients showed a lower incidence of major bleeding complications (ACUITY scale: 1.1 vs. 4.0%, P = 0.035) and a shorter length of hospital stay (3.5 ± 1.7 vs. 4.0 ± 1.6 days, P = 0.002) as compared with heparin treated patients. Among patients undergoing primary stenting with abciximab administration, immediate post-PCI reversal anticoagulation by protamine without associated heparin infusion is safe and associated with a significant reduction in major bleeding complications

Verticalization of bacterial biofilms

Biofilms are communities of bacteria adhered to surfaces. Recently, biofilms of rod-shaped bacteria were observed at single-cell resolution and shown to develop from a disordered, two-dimensional layer of founder cells into a three-dimensional structure with a vertically-aligned core. Here, we elucidate the physical mechanism underpinning this transition using a combination of agent-based and continuum modeling. We find that verticalization proceeds through a series of localized mechanical instabilities on the cellular scale. For short cells, these instabilities are primarily triggered by cell division, whereas long cells are more likely to be peeled off the surface by nearby vertical cells, creating an "inverse domino effect". The interplay between cell growth and cell verticalization gives rise to an exotic mechanical state in which the effective surface pressure becomes constant throughout the growing core of the biofilm surface layer. This dynamical isobaricity determines the expansion speed of a biofilm cluster and thereby governs how cells access the third dimension. In particular, theory predicts that a longer average cell length yields more rapidly expanding, flatter biofilms. We experimentally show that such changes in biofilm development occur by exploiting chemicals that modulate cell length.Comment: Main text 10 pages, 4 figures; Supplementary Information 35 pages, 15 figure