Testing the predictability and efficiency of securitized real estate markets

This paper conducts tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for 14 national public real estate markets. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamics and determine the trading strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local real estate index returns and to test the hypothesis that public real estate stock prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) are employed. Weak-form market efficiency is tested directly using non-parametric runs tests. Empirical evidence shows that weekly stock prices in major securitized real estate markets do not follow a random walk. The empirical findings of return predictability suggest that investors might be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn excess returns compared to a buy-and-hold strategy

Further evidence on the (in-) efficiency of the U.S. housing market

Extending the controversial findings from relevant literature on testing the efficient market hypothesis for the U.S. housing market, the results from the monthly and quarterly transaction-based Case-Shiller indices from 1987 to 2009 provide further empirical evidence on the rejection of the weak-form version of efficiency in the U.S. housing market. In addition to conducting parametric and non-parametric tests, we apply technical trading strategies to test whether or not the inefficiencies can be exploited by investors earning excess returns. The empirical findings suggest that investors might be able to obtain excess returns from both autocorrelation- and moving average-based trading strategies compared to a buy-and-hold strategy

Anchoring vignettes and cross-country comparability: an empirical assessment of self-reported mobility

Anchoring vignettes have become a popular method to adjust self-assessed data for systematic dierences in reporting behaviour to aid comparability, for example, of cross-country analyses. The method relies on the two fundamental assumptions of response consistency and vignette equivalence. Evidence on the validity of these assumptions is equivocal. This paper considers the utility of the vignette approach by considering how successful the method is in moving self-assessed reports of health mobility towards objective counterparts. We draw on data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and undertake pairwise country comparisons of cumulative distributions of self-reports, their objective counterparts and vignette adjusted reports. Comparison of distributions is based on tests for stochastic dominance. Multiple cross-country comparisons are undertaken to assess the consistency of results across contexts and settings. Both non-parametric and parametric approaches to vignette adjustment are considered. In general, we nd the anchoring vignette methodology poorly reconciles self-reported data with objective counterparts

Inference for the measurement of poverty in the presence of a stochastic weighting variable

Decomposable poverty measure, Stochastic dominance, Statistical inference, C40, I32,