Cod response to past and current warm phases in the Seas of Iceland, a time series analysis

Climate change, and in particular global warming, is already affecting the Arctic and is expected to continue in the near future. A sustainable use the Arctic resources requires an increased understanding of its functioning that helps us anticipate change and adapt to it. Cod time series in Iceland cover a period of more than 50 years. Three distinct phases can be identified over this span of time: (1) the current warm phase characterised by relatively high cod biomasses, (2) an earlier phase (around the 1950s) with similar conditions separated by (3) some 20 years of cold temperatures and low biomasses. The aim of this study is to identify possible regime-dependent dynamics associated to these warm and cold phases that can help us identify key drivers in the current and future warm regime. To do this we compiled a database of fishing pressure, hydrographical and biological (copepods and euphausiids) variables as well as three cod population descriptors: (i) total spawning stock biomass, (ii) the population growth rate derived from matrix population models and (iii) disaggregated number at age time series. These three cod indices were subsequently regressed (GAM and threshold GAM) against the environmental and anthropogenic variables. Our results point out a probable regime-dependent mechanism where plankton effects would only be important for cod under warm conditions. No threshold-like responses were found in the population growth rate nor in the number at age for the various age classes

Development and resilience in three Arctic ecosystems: Baltic, Barents and Iceland Seas

In this GreenMAR project we look into the historical development of the marine ecosystems that surround the Nordic countries in an effort to forecast their future evolution. We pay particular attention to the way their food webs responded to similar stressors (warming) and fishing regimes in the past. We have compiled historical information on environmental and biological components, from plankton to fish, over the last 25 to 45 years, depending on the system. On these four ecosystems we have: (i) carried out multivariate analyses to describe their main trends and (ii) constructed stability landscapes to quantify their resilience. We will show these results and discuss their implications

Stressful conditions reveal decrease in size, modification of shape but relatively stable asymmetry in bumblebee wings

Human activities can generate a wide variety of direct and indirect effects on animals, which can manifest as environmental and genetic stressors. Several phenotypic markers have been proposed as indicators of these stressful conditions but have displayed contrasting results, depending, among others, on the phenotypic trait measured. Knowing the worldwide decline of multiple bumblebee species, it is important to understand these stressors and link them with the drivers of decline. We assessed the impact of several stressors (i.e. natural toxin-, parasite-, thermic- and inbreeding-stress) on both wing shape and size and their variability as well as their directional and fluctuating asymmetries. The total data set includes 650 individuals of Bombus terrestris (Hymenoptera: Apidae). Overall wing size and shape were affected by all the tested stressors. Except for the sinigrin (e.g. glucosinolate) stress, each stress implies a decrease of wing size. Size variance was affected by several stressors, contrary to shape variance that was affected by none of them. Although wing size directional and fluctuating asymmetries were significantly affected by sinigrin, parasites and high temperatures, neither directional nor fluctuating shape asymmetry was significantly affected by any tested stressor. Parasites and high temperatures led to the strongest phenotype modifications. Overall size and shape were the most sensitive morphological traits, which contrasts with the common view that fluctuating asymmetry is the major phenotypic marker of stress

Developmental Stability: A Major Role for Cyclin G in Drosophila melanogaster

Morphological consistency in metazoans is remarkable given the pervasive occurrence of genetic variation, environmental effects, and developmental noise. Developmental stability, the ability to reduce developmental noise, is a fundamental property of multicellular organisms, yet its genetic bases remains elusive. Imperfect bilateral symmetry, or fluctuating asymmetry, is commonly used to estimate developmental stability. We observed that Drosophila melanogaster overexpressing Cyclin G (CycG) exhibit wing asymmetry clearly detectable by sight. Quantification of wing size and shape using geometric morphometrics reveals that this asymmetry is a genuine—but extreme—fluctuating asymmetry. Overexpression of CycG indeed leads to a 40-fold increase of wing fluctuating asymmetry, which is an unprecedented effect, for any organ and in any animal model, either in wild populations or mutants. This asymmetry effect is not restricted to wings, since femur length is affected as well. Inactivating CycG by RNAi also induces fluctuating asymmetry but to a lesser extent. Investigating the cellular bases of the phenotypic effects of CycG deregulation, we found that misregulation of cell size is predominant in asymmetric flies. In particular, the tight negative correlation between cell size and cell number observed in wild-type flies is impaired when CycG is upregulated. Our results highlight the role of CycG in the control of developmental stability in D. melanogaster. Furthermore, they show that wing developmental stability is normally ensured via compensatory processes between cell growth and cell proliferation. We discuss the possible role of CycG as a hub in a genetic network that controls developmental stability

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO(2). Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century

Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households' downside risk exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that past adaptation to climate change (i) reduces current downside risk exposure, and so the risk of crop failure; (ii) would have been more beneficial to the non-adapters if they adapted, in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure; and (iii) is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions