Satellite observations of convection and their implications for parameterizations

Parameterization development and evaluation ideally takes a two-step approach (Lohmann et al., 2007). Insight into new processes, and initial parameterization formulation should be guided by theory, process-level observations (laboratory experiments or field studies) or, if these are unavailable, by high-resolution modelling. However, once implemented into large-scale atmospheric models, a thorough testing and evaluation is required in order to assure that the parameterization works satisfactorily for all weather situations and at the scales the model is applied to. Satellite observations are probably the most valuable source of information for this purpose, since they offer a large range of parameters over comparatively long time series and with a very large, to global, coverage. However, satellites usually retrieve parameters in a rather indirect way, and some quantities (e.g., vertical wind velocities) are unavailable. It is thus essential for model evaluation 1. to assure comparability; and, 2. to develop and apply metrics that circumvent the limitations of satellite observations and help to learn about parameterizations. In terms of comparability, the implementation of so-called \"satellite simulators\" has emerged as the approach of choice, in which satellite retrievals are emulated, making use of model information about the subgrid-scale variability of clouds, and creating summary statistics (Bodas-Salcedo et al., 2011; Nam and Quaas, 2012; Nam et al., 2014). In terms of process-oriented metrics, a large range of approaches has been developed, e.g. investigating the life cycle of cirrus from convective detrainment (Gehlot and Quaas, 2012), or focusing on the details of microphysical processes (Suzuki et al., 2011). Besides such techniques focusing on individual parameterizations, the data assimilation technique might be exploited, by objectively adjusting convection parameters and learning about parameter choices and parameterizations in this way (Schirber et al., 2013).In this chapter, we will first introduce the available satellite data, consider their limitations and the approaches to account for these, and then discuss observations-based process-oriented metrics that have been developed so far

Emission-Induced Nonlinearities in the Global Aerosol System: Results from the ECHAM5-HAM Aerosol-Climate Model

In a series of simulations with the global ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model, the response to changes in anthropogenic emissions is analyzed. Traditionally, additivity is assumed in the assessment of the aerosol climate impact, as the underlying bulk aerosol models are largely constrained to linearity. The microphysical aerosol module HAM establishes degrees of freedom for nonlinear responses of the aerosol system. In this study’s results, aerosol column mass burdens respond nonlinearly to changes in anthropogenic emissions, manifested in alterations of the aerosol lifetimes. Specific emission changes induce modifications of aerosol cycles with unaltered emissions, indicating a microphysical coupling of the aerosol cycles. Anthropogenic carbonaceous emissions disproportionately contribute to the accumulation mode numbers close to the source regions. In contrast, anthropogenic sulfuric emissions less than proportionally contribute to the accumulation mode numbers close to the source regions and disproportionately contribute in remote regions. The additivity of the aerosol system is analyzed by comparing the changes from a simulation with emission changes for several compounds with the sum of changes of single simulations, in each of which one of the emission changes was introduced. Close to the anthropogenic source regions, deviations from additivity are found at up to 30% and 15% for the accumulation mode number burden and aerosol optical thickness, respectively. These results challenge the traditional approach of assessing the climate impact of aerosols separately for each component and demand for integrated assessments and emission strategies

A dimension-independent bound on the Wasserstein contraction rate of geodesic slice sampling on the sphere for uniform target

When faced with a constant target density, geodesic slice sampling on the sphere simplifies to a geodesic random walk. We prove that this random walk is Wasserstein contractive and that its contraction rate stabilizes with increasing dimension instead of deteriorating arbitrarily far. This demonstrates that the performance of geodesic slice sampling on the sphere can be entirely robust against dimension-increases, which had not been known before. Our result is also of interest due to its implications regarding the potential for dimension-independent performance by Gibbsian polar slice sampling, which is an MCMC method on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that implicitly uses geodesic slice sampling on the sphere within its transition mechanism.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

Dependence of fast changes in global and local precipitation on the geographical location of absorbing aerosol

Anthropogenic aerosol interacts strongly with incoming solar radiation, perturbing Earth’s energy budget and precipitation on both local and global scales. Understanding these changes in precipitation has proven particularly difficult for the case of absorbing aerosol, which absorbs a significant amount of incoming solar radiation and hence acts as a source of localized diabatic heating to the atmosphere. In this work, we use an ensemble of atmosphere-only climate model simulations forced by identical absorbing aerosol perturbations in different geographical locations across the globe to develop a basic physical understanding of how this localized heating impacts the atmosphere and how these changes impact on precipitation both globally and locally. In agreement with previous studies we find that absorbing aerosol causes a decrease in global-mean precipitation, but we also show that even for identical aerosol optical depth perturbations, the global-mean precipitation change varies by over an order of magnitude depending on the location of the aerosol burden. Our experiments also demonstrate that the local precipitation response to absorbing aerosol is opposite in sign between the tropics and the extratropics, as found by previous work. We then show that this contrasting response can be understood in terms of different mechanisms by which the large-scale circulation responds to heating in the extratropics and in the tropics. We provide a simple theory to explain variations in the local precipitation response to absorbing aerosol in the tropics. Our work highlights that the spatial pattern of absorbing aerosol and its interactions with circulation are a key determinant of its overall climate impact and must be taken into account when developing our understanding of aerosol–climate interactions

Aerosol Activation and Cloud Processing in the Global Aerosol-climate Model

A parameterization for cloud processing is presented that calculates activation of aerosol particles to cloud drops, cloud drop size, and pH-dependent aqueous phase sulfur chemistry. The parameterization is implemented in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The cloud processing parameterization uses updraft speed, temperature, and aerosol size and chemical parameters simulated by ECHAM5-HAM to estimate the maximum supersaturation at the cloud base, and subsequently the cloud drop number concentration (CDNC) due to activation. In-cloud sulfate production occurs through oxidation of dissolved SO2 by ozone and hydrogen peroxide. The model simulates realistic distributions for annually averaged CDNC although it is underestimated especially in remote marine regions. On average, CDNC is dominated by cloud droplets growing on particles from the accumulation mode, with smaller contributions from the Aitken and coarse modes. The simulations indicate that in-cloud sulfate production is a potentially important source of accumulation mode sized cloud condensation nuclei, due to chemical growth of activated Aitken particles and to enhanced coalescence of processed particles. The strength of this source depends on the distribution of produced sulfate over the activated modes. This distribution is affected by uncertainties in many parameters that play a direct role in particle activation, such as the updraft velocity, the aerosol chemical composition and the organic solubility, and the simulated CDNC is found to be relatively sensitive to these uncertainties.JRC.H.2-Climate chang

Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) v1.4.0: a tool for intercomparing models and observations

The Community Intercomparison Suite (CIS) is an easy-to-use command-line tool which has been developed to allow the straightforward intercomparison of remote sensing, in situ and model data. While there are a number of tools available for working with climate model data, the large diversity of sources (and formats) of remote sensing and in situ measurements necessitated a novel software solution. Developed by a professional software company, CIS supports a large number of gridded and ungridded data sources "out-of-the-box", including climate model output in NetCDF or the UK Met Office pp file format, CloudSat, CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), Cloud and Aerosol CCI (Climate Change Initiative) level 2 satellite data and a number of in situ aircraft and ground station data sets. The open-source architecture also supports user-defined plugins to allow many other sources to be easily added. Many of the key operations required when comparing heterogenous data sets are provided by CIS, including subsetting, aggregating, collocating and plotting the data. Output data are written to CF-compliant NetCDF files to ensure interoperability with other tools and systems. The latest documentation, including a user manual and installation instructions, can be found on our website (http://cistools.net). Here, we describe the need which this tool fulfils, followed by descriptions of its main functionality (as at version 1.4.0) and plugin architecture which make it unique in the field

Detecting anthropogenic cloud perturbations with deep learning

One of the most pressing questions in climate science is that of the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance. Aerosols provide the `seeds' on which cloud droplets form, and changes in the amount of aerosol available to a cloud can change its brightness and other physical properties such as optical thickness and spatial extent. Clouds play a critical role in moderating global temperatures and small perturbations can lead to significant amounts of cooling or warming. Uncertainty in this effect is so large it is not currently known if it is negligible, or provides a large enough cooling to largely negate present-day warming by CO2. This work uses deep convolutional neural networks to look for two particular perturbations in clouds due to anthropogenic aerosol and assess their properties and prevalence, providing valuable insights into their climatic effects.Comment: Awarded Best Paper and Spotlight Oral at Climate Change: How Can AI Help? (Workshop) at International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), Long Beach, California, 201

Pollution tracker: finding industrial sources of aerosol emission in satellite imagery

The effects of anthropogenic aerosol, solid or liquid particles suspended in the air, are the biggest contributor to uncertainty in current climate perturbations. Heavy industry sites, such as coal power plants and steel manufacturers, emit large amounts of aerosol in a small area. This makes them ideal places to study aerosol interactions with radiation and clouds. However, existing data sets of heavy industry locations are either not public, or suffer from reporting gaps. Here, we develop a deep learning algorithm to detect unreported industry sites in high-resolution satellite data. For the pipeline to be viable at global scale, we employ a two-step approach. The first step uses 10 m resolution data, which is scanned for potential industry sites, before using 1.2 m resolution images to confirm or reject detections. On held out test data, the models perform well, with the lower resolution one reaching up to 94% accuracy. Deployed to a large test region, the first stage model yields many false positive detections. The second stage, higher resolution model shows promising results at filtering these out, while keeping the true positives. In the deployment area, we find five new heavy industry sites which were not in the training data. This demonstrates that the approach can be used to complement data sets of heavy industry sites