Raising argument strength using negative evidence: A constraint on models of induction

Both intuitively, and according to similarity-based theories of induction, relevant evidence raises argument strength when it is positive and lowers it when it is negative. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that argument strength can actually increase when negative evidence is introduced. Two kinds of argument were compared through forced choice or sequential evaluation: single positive arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”) and double mixed arguments (e.g., “Shostakovich’s music causes alpha waves in the brain, X’s music DOES NOT; therefore, Bach’s music causes alpha waves in the brain”). Negative evidence in the second premise lowered credence when it applied to an item X from the same subcategory (e.g., Haydn) and raised it when it applied to a different subcategory (e.g., AC/DC). The results constitute a new constraint on models of induction

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill

Forecasting seasonal variations in European summer weather represents a considerable challenge. Here, we assess the performance of a seasonal forecasting model at representing a major mode of northern hemisphere summer climate variability, the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and the implications of errors in its representation on seasonal forecasts for the European summer (June, July, August). Using seasonal hindcasts initialised at the start of May, we find that the model skill for forecasting the interannual variability of 500 hPa geopotential height is poor, particularly over Europe and several other “centres of action” of the CGT. The model also has a weaker CGT pattern than is observed, particularly in August, when the observed CGT wavetrain is strongest. We investigate several potential causes of this poor skill. First, model variance in geopotential height in west-central Asia (an important region for the maintenance of the CGT) is lower than observed in July and August, associated with a poor representation of the link between this region and Indian monsoon precipitation. Second, analysis of the Rossby wave source shows that the source associated with monsoon heating is both too strong and displaced to the northeast in the model. This is related to errors in monsoon precipitation over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, where the model has more precipitation than is observed. Third, the model jet is systematically shifted northwards by several degrees latitude over large parts of the northern hemisphere, which may affect the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves in the model

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

Clustered mutations in the <i>GRIK2</i> kainate receptor subunit gene underlie diverse neurodevelopmental disorders

Kainate receptors (KARs) are glutamate-gated cation channels with diverse roles in the central nervous system. Bi-allelic loss of function of the KAR-encoding gene GRIK2 causes a nonsyndromic neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) with intellectual disability and developmental delay as core features. The extent to which mono-allelic variants in GRIK2 also underlie NDDs is less understood because only a single individual has been reported previously. Here, we describe an additional eleven individuals with heterozygous de novo variants in GRIK2 causative for neurodevelopmental deficits that include intellectual disability. Five children harbored recurrent de novo variants (three encoding p.Thr660Lys and two p.Thr660Arg), and four children and one adult were homozygous for a previously reported variant (c.1969G&gt;A [p.Ala657Thr]). Individuals with shared variants had some overlapping behavioral and neurological dysfunction, suggesting that the GRIK2 variants are likely pathogenic. Analogous mutations introduced into recombinant GluK2 KAR subunits at sites within the M3 transmembrane domain (encoding p.Ala657Thr, p.Thr660Lys, and p.Thr660Arg) and the M3-S2 linker domain (encoding p.Ile668Thr) had complex effects on functional properties and membrane localization of homomeric and heteromeric KARs. Both p.Thr660Lys and p.Thr660Arg mutant KARs exhibited markedly slowed gating kinetics, similar to p.Ala657Thr-containing receptors. Moreover, we observed emerging genotype-phenotype correlations, including the presence of severe epilepsy in individuals with the p.Thr660Lys variant and hypomyelination in individuals with either the p.Thr660Lys or p.Thr660Arg variant. Collectively, these results demonstrate that human GRIK2 variants predicted to alter channel function are causative for early childhood development disorders and further emphasize the importance of clarifying the role of KARs in early nervous system development.</p

Clustered mutations in the <i>GRIK2</i> kainate receptor subunit gene underlie diverse neurodevelopmental disorders

Kainate receptors (KARs) are glutamate-gated cation channels with diverse roles in the central nervous system. Bi-allelic loss of function of the KAR-encoding gene GRIK2 causes a nonsyndromic neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) with intellectual disability and developmental delay as core features. The extent to which mono-allelic variants in GRIK2 also underlie NDDs is less understood because only a single individual has been reported previously. Here, we describe an additional eleven individuals with heterozygous de novo variants in GRIK2 causative for neurodevelopmental deficits that include intellectual disability. Five children harbored recurrent de novo variants (three encoding p.Thr660Lys and two p.Thr660Arg), and four children and one adult were homozygous for a previously reported variant (c.1969G>A [p.Ala657Thr]). Individuals with shared variants had some overlapping behavioral and neurological dysfunction, suggesting that the GRIK2 variants are likely pathogenic. Analogous mutations introduced into recombinant GluK2 KAR subunits at sites within the M3 transmembrane domain (encoding p.Ala657Thr, p.Thr660Lys, and p.Thr660Arg) and the M3-S2 linker domain (encoding p.Ile668Thr) had complex effects on functional properties and membrane localization of homomeric and heteromeric KARs. Both p.Thr660Lys and p.Thr660Arg mutant KARs exhibited markedly slowed gating kinetics, similar to p.Ala657Thr-containing receptors. Moreover, we observed emerging genotype-phenotype correlations, including the presence of severe epilepsy in individuals with the p.Thr660Lys variant and hypomyelination in individuals with either the p.Thr660Lys or p.Thr660Arg variant. Collectively, these results demonstrate that human GRIK2 variants predicted to alter channel function are causative for early childhood development disorders and further emphasize the importance of clarifying the role of KARs in early nervous system development

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Significant benefits of AIP testing and clinical screening in familial isolated and young-onset pituitary tumors

Context Germline mutations in the aryl hydrocarbon receptor-interacting protein (AIP) gene are responsible for a subset of familial isolated pituitary adenoma (FIPA) cases and sporadic pituitary neuroendocrine tumors (PitNETs). Objective To compare prospectively diagnosed AIP mutation-positive (AIPmut) PitNET patients with clinically presenting patients and to compare the clinical characteristics of AIPmut and AIPneg PitNET patients. Design 12-year prospective, observational study. Participants & Setting We studied probands and family members of FIPA kindreds and sporadic patients with disease onset ≤18 years or macroadenomas with onset ≤30 years (n = 1477). This was a collaborative study conducted at referral centers for pituitary diseases. Interventions & Outcome AIP testing and clinical screening for pituitary disease. Comparison of characteristics of prospectively diagnosed (n = 22) vs clinically presenting AIPmut PitNET patients (n = 145), and AIPmut (n = 167) vs AIPneg PitNET patients (n = 1310). Results Prospectively diagnosed AIPmut PitNET patients had smaller lesions with less suprasellar extension or cavernous sinus invasion and required fewer treatments with fewer operations and no radiotherapy compared with clinically presenting cases; there were fewer cases with active disease and hypopituitarism at last follow-up. When comparing AIPmut and AIPneg cases, AIPmut patients were more often males, younger, more often had GH excess, pituitary apoplexy, suprasellar extension, and more patients required multimodal therapy, including radiotherapy. AIPmut patients (n = 136) with GH excess were taller than AIPneg counterparts (n = 650). Conclusions Prospectively diagnosed AIPmut patients show better outcomes than clinically presenting cases, demonstrating the benefits of genetic and clinical screening. AIP-related pituitary disease has a wide spectrum ranging from aggressively growing lesions to stable or indolent disease course