1,316 research outputs found

    Analyst Forecasts and Price/Earnings Ratios

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    [Excerpt] Security valuation techniques have become increasingly sophisticated, as evidenced by advances in option pricing theory and Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Despite the availability of these paradigms, the price/earnings (P/E) approach to security valuation has maintained its popularity among practicing security analysts. Much of this lasting popularity can be attributed to the apparent simplicity of the P/E approach and the difficulties inherent in implementing complex valuation models. To implement the P/E approach, analysts must estimate the appropriate P/E multiple, which typically requires the development of a model. Unfortunately, most of the P/E models that have been developed use ad hoc empirical tests and historical data. One notable exception is a study by Cragg and Malkiel, which tested a theoretical P/E model using analysts\u27 forecasts for a nonrandom sample of 175 large firms. This note extends the work of Cragg and Malkiel in two ways. First, it is not restricted to large firms; all firms with complete data are included in the empirical tests. Second, the model includes some factors not considered by other researchers

    Micromechanics of Spray-On Foam Insulation

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    Understanding the thermo-mechanical response of the Space Shuttle External Tank spray-on foam insulation (SOFI) material is critical, to NASA's Return to Flight effort. This closed-cell rigid polymeric foam is used to insulate the metallic Space Shuttle External Tank, which is at cryogenic temperatures immediately prior to and during lift off. The shedding of the SOFI during ascent led to the loss of the Columbia, and eliminating/minimizing foam lass from the tank has become a priority for NASA as it seeks to resume scheduled space shuttle missions. Determining the nature of the SOFI material behavior in response to both thermal and mechanical loading plays an important role as any structural modeling of the shedding phenomenon k predicated on knowledge of the constitutive behavior of the foam. In this paper, the SOFI material has been analyzed using the High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells (HFGMC) micromechanics model, which has recently been extended to admit a triply-periodic 3-D repeating unit cell (RUC). Additional theoretical extensions that mere made in order to enable modeling of the closed-cell-foam material include the ability to represent internal boundaries within the RUC (to simulated internal pores) and the ability to impose an internal pressure within the simulated pores. This latter extension is crucial as two sources contribute to significant internal pressure changes within the SOFI pores. First, gas trapped in the pores during the spray process will expand or contract due to temperature changes. Second, the pore pressure will increase due to outgassing of water and other species present in the foam skeleton polymer material. With HFGMC's new pore pressure modeling capabilities, a nonlinear pressure change within the simulated pore can be imposed that accounts for both of these sources, in addition to stmdar&-thermal and mechanical loading; The triply-periodic HFGMC micromechanics model described above was implemented within NASA GRC's MAC/GMC software package, giving the model access to a range of nonlinear constitutive models for the polymeric foam skeleton material. A repeating unit cell architecture was constructed that, while relatively simple, still accounts for the geometric anisotropy of the porous foam microstructure and its thin walls and thicker edges. With the lack of reliable polymeric foam skeleton materia1 properties, many simulations were executed aimed at backing out these material properties. Then, using these properties, predictions of the thermo-mechanical behavior of the foam, including calculated internal applied pressure profiles, were performed and compared with appropriate experimental data

    Repressive Interactions Between Transcription Factors Separate Different Embryonic Ectodermal Domains.

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    The embryonic ectoderm is composed of four domains: neural plate, neural crest, pre-placodal region (PPR) and epidermis. Their formation is initiated during early gastrulation by dorsal-ventral and anterior-posterior gradients of signaling factors that first divide the embryonic ectoderm into neural and non-neural domains. Next, the neural crest and PPR domains arise, eithe

    Motivation rulers for smoking cessation: a prospective observational examination of construct and predictive validity

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    BACKGROUND: Although popular clinically, the psychometric properties of motivation rulers for tobacco cessation are unknown. This study examined the psychometric properties of rulers assessing importance, readiness, and confidence in tobacco cessation. METHODS: This observational study of current smokers was conducted at 10 US emergency departments (EDs). Subjects were assessed during their ED visit (baseline) and reassessed two weeks later. We examined intercorrelations between the rulers as well as their construct and predictive validity. Hierarchical multinomial logistic regressions were used to examine the rulers\u27 predictive ability after controlling for covariables. RESULTS: We enrolled 375 subjects. The correlations between the three rulers ranged from 0.50 (between Important and Confidence) to 0.70 (between Readiness and Confidence); all were significant (p \u3c 0.001). Individuals in the preparation stage displayed the highest motivation-ruler ratings (all rulers F 2, 363 \u3e/= 43; p \u3c 0.001). After adjusting for covariables, each of the rulers significantly improved prediction of smoking behavior change. The strength of their predictive ability was on par with that of stage of change. CONCLUSION: Our results provide preliminary support for the psychometric soundness of the importance, readiness, and confidence rulers

    Fine particle pH and the partitioning of nitric acid during winter in the northeastern United States

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    Particle pH is a critical but poorly constrained quantity that affects many aerosol processes and properties, including aerosol composition, concentrations, and toxicity. We assess PM1 pH as a function of geographical location and altitude, focusing on the northeastern U.S., based on aircraft measurements from the Wintertime Investigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity campaign (1 February to 15 March 2015). Particle pH and water were predicted with the ISORROPIA-II thermodynamic model and validated by comparing predicted to observed partitioning of inorganic nitrate between the gas and particle phases. Good agreement was found for relative humidity (RH) above 40%; at lower RH observed particle nitrate was higher than predicted, possibly due to organic-inorganic phase separations or nitrate measurement uncertainties associated with low concentrations (nitrate \u3c 1 µg m−3). Including refractory ions in the pH calculations did not improve model predictions, suggesting they were externally mixed with PM1 sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium. Sample line volatilization artifacts were found to be minimal. Overall, particle pH for altitudes up to 5000 m ranged between −0.51 and 1.9 (10th and 90th percentiles) with a study mean of 0.77 ± 0.96, similar to those reported for the southeastern U.S. and eastern Mediterranean. This expansive aircraft data set is used to investigate causes in variability in pH and pH-dependent aerosol components, such as PM1 nitrate, over a wide range of temperatures (−21 to 19°C), RH (20 to 95%), inorganic gas, and particle concentrations and also provides further evidence that particles with low pH are ubiquitous

    The Conservation Reserve Program: Economic Implications for Rural America

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    This report estimates the impact that high levels of enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have had on economic trends in rural counties since the program's inception in 1985 until today. The results of a growth model and quasi-experimental control group analysis indicate no discernible impact by the CRP on aggregate county population trends. Aggregate employment growth may have slowed in some high-CRP counties, but only temporarily. High levels of CRP enrollment appear to have affected farm-related businesses over the long run, but growth in the number of other nonfarm businesses moderated CRP's impact on total employment. If CRP contracts had ended in 2001, simulation models suggest that roughly 51 percent of CRP land would have returned to crop production, and that spending on outdoor recreation would decrease by as much as $300 million per year in rural areas. The resulting impacts on employment and income vary widely among regions having similar CRP enrollments, depending upon local economic conditions.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use,

    Functional Architectures of Local and Distal Regulation of Gene Expression in Multiple Human Tissues

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    Genetic variants that modulate gene expression levels play an important role in the etiology of human diseases and complex traits. Although large-scale eQTL mapping studies routinely identify many local eQTLs, the molecular mechanisms by which genetic variants regulate expression remain unclear, particularly for distal eQTLs, which these studies are not well powered to detect. Here, we leveraged all variants (not just those that pass stringent significance thresholds) to analyze the functional architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression in 15 human tissues by employing an extension of stratified LD-score regression that produces robust results in simulations. The top enriched functional categories in local regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression included coding regions (11.41×), conserved regions (4.67×), and four histone marks (p < 5 × 10 -5 for all enrichments); local enrichments were similar across the 15 tissues. We also observed substantial enrichments for distal regulation of peripheral-blood gene expression: coding regions (4.47×), conserved regions (4.51×), and two histone marks (p < 3 × 10 -7 for all enrichments). Analyses of the genetic correlation of gene expression across tissues confirmed that local regulation of gene expression is largely shared across tissues but that distal regulation is highly tissue specific. Our results elucidate the functional components of the genetic architecture of local and distal regulation of gene expression

    Life in Hot Carbon Monoxide: The Complete Genome Sequence of Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans Z-2901

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    We report here the sequencing and analysis of the genome of the thermophilic bacterium Carboxydothermus hydrogenoformans Z-2901. This species is a model for studies of hydrogenogens, which are diverse bacteria and archaea that grow anaerobically utilizing carbon monoxide (CO) as their sole carbon source and water as an electron acceptor, producing carbon dioxide and hydrogen as waste products. Organisms that make use of CO do so through carbon monoxide dehydrogenase complexes. Remarkably, analysis of the genome of C. hydrogenoformans reveals the presence of at least five highly differentiated anaerobic carbon monoxide dehydrogenase complexes, which may in part explain how this species is able to grow so much more rapidly on CO than many other species. Analysis of the genome also has provided many general insights into the metabolism of this organism which should make it easier to use it as a source of biologically produced hydrogen gas. One surprising finding is the presence of many genes previously found only in sporulating species in the Firmicutes Phylum. Although this species is also a Firmicutes, it was not known to sporulate previously. Here we show that it does sporulate and because it is missing many of the genes involved in sporulation in other species, this organism may serve as a “minimal” model for sporulation studies. In addition, using phylogenetic profile analysis, we have identified many uncharacterized gene families found in all known sporulating Firmicutes, but not in any non-sporulating bacteria, including a sigma factor not known to be involved in sporulation previously
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