Revisiting the returns–volume relationship: Time variation, alternative measures and the financial crisis

Following its introduction in the seminal study of Osborne (1959), a voluminous literature has emerged examining the returns-volume relationship for financial assets. The present paper revisits this relationship in an examination of the FTSE100 which extends the existing literature in two ways. First, alternative daily measures of the FTSE100 index are used to create differing returns and absolute returns series to employ in an examination of returns-volume causality. Second, rolling regression analysis is utilised to explore potential time variation in the returns-volume relationship. The findings obtained depict a hitherto unconsidered complexity in this relationship with the type of returns series considered and financial crisis found to be significant underlying factors. The implications of the newly derived results for both the understanding of the nature of the returns-volume relationship and the development of theories in connection to it are discussed

Feasibility of trial procedures for a randomised controlled trial of a community based group exercise intervention for falls prevention for visually impaired older people: the VIOLET study

Background Visually impaired older people (VIOP) have a higher risk of falling than their sighted peers, and are likely to avoid physical activity. The aim was to adapt the existing Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme for VIOP, delivered in the community, and to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of this adapted intervention. Methods Two-centre randomised mixed methods pilot trial and economic evaluation of the adapted group-based FaME programme for VIOP versus usual care. A one hour exercise programme ran weekly over 12 weeks at the study sites (Newcastle and Glasgow), delivered by third sector (voluntary and community) organisations. Participants were advised to exercise at home for an additional two hours over the week. Those randomised to the usual activities group received no intervention. Outcome measures were completed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks. The potential primary outcome was the Short Form Falls Efficacy Scale – International (SFES-I). Participants’ adherence was assessed by reviewing attendance records and self-reported compliance to the home exercises. Adherence with the course content (fidelity) by instructors was assessed by a researcher. Adverse events were collected in a weekly phone call. Results Eighteen participants, drawn from community-living VIOP were screened; 68 met the inclusion criteria; 64 participants were randomised with 33 allocated to the intervention and 31 to the usual activities arm. 94% of participants provided data at the 12 week visit and 92% at 24 weeks. Adherence was high. The intervention was found to be safe with 76% attending nine or more classes. Median time for home exercise was 50 min per week. There was little or no evidence that fear of falling, balance and falls risk, physical activity, emotional, attitudinal or quality of life outcomes differed between trial arms at follow-up. Conclusions The intervention, FaME, was implemented successfully for VIOP and all progression criteria for a main trial were met. The lack of difference between groups on fear of falling was unsurprising given it was a pilot study but there may have been other contributory factors including suboptimal exercise dose and apparent low risk of falls in participants. These issues need addressing for a future trial

Galactic Core-Collapse Supernovae at IceCube: “Fire Drill” Data Challenges and follow-up

The next Galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make astrophysical measurements using neutrinos, gravitational waves, and electromagnetic radiation. CCSNe local to the Milky Way are extremely rare, so it is paramount that detectors are prepared to observe the signal when it arrives. The IceCube Neutrino Observatory, a gigaton water Cherenkov detector below the South Pole, is sensitive to the burst of neutrinos released by a Galactic CCSN at a level >10σ. This burst of neutrinos precedes optical emission by hours to days, enabling neutrinos to serve as an early warning for follow-up observation. IceCube\u27s detection capabilities make it a cornerstone of the global network of neutrino detectors monitoring for Galactic CCSNe, the SuperNova Early Warning System (SNEWS 2.0). In this contribution, we describe IceCube\u27s sensitivity to Galactic CCSNe and strategies for operational readiness, including "fire drill" data challenges. We also discuss coordination with SNEWS 2.0

All-Energy Search for Solar Atmospheric Neutrinos with IceCube

The interaction of cosmic rays with the solar atmosphere generates a secondary flux of mesons that decay into photons and neutrinos – the so-called solar atmospheric flux. Although the gamma-ray component of this flux has been observed in Fermi-LAT and HAWC Observatory data, the neutrino component remains undetected. The energy distribution of those neutrinos follows a soft spectrum that extends from the GeV to the multi-TeV range, making large Cherenkov neutrino telescopes a suitable for probing this flux. In this contribution, we will discuss current progress of a search for the solar neutrino flux by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory using all available data since 2011. Compared to the previous analysis which considered only high-energy muon neutrino tracks, we will additionally consider events produced by all flavors of neutrinos down to GeV-scale energies. These new events should improve our analysis sensitivity since the flux falls quickly with energy. Determining the magnitude of the neutrino flux is essential, since it is an irreducible background to indirect solar dark matter searches

TXS 0506+056 with Updated IceCube Data

Past results from the IceCube Collaboration have suggested that the blazar TXS 0506+056 is a potential source of astrophysical neutrinos. However, in the years since there have been numerous updates to event processing and reconstruction, as well as improvements to the statistical methods used to search for astrophysical neutrino sources. These improvements in combination with additional years of data have resulted in the identification of NGC 1068 as a second neutrino source candidate. This talk will re-examine time-dependent neutrino emission from TXS 0506+056 using the most recent northern-sky data sample that was used in the analysis of NGC 1068. The results of using this updated data sample to obtain a significance and flux fit for the 2014 TXS 0506+056 "untriggered" neutrino flare are reported

Recent neutrino oscillation results with the IceCube experiment

The IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory is a Cherenkov detector instrumented in a cubic kilometer of ice at the South Pole. IceCube’s primary scientific goal is the detection of TeV neutrino emissions from astrophysical sources. At the lower center of the IceCube array, there is a subdetector called DeepCore, which has a denser configuration that makes it possible to lower the energy threshold of IceCube and observe GeV-scale neutrinos, opening the window to atmospheric neutrino oscillations studies. Advances in physics sensitivity have recently been achieved by employing Convolutional Neural Networks to reconstruct neutrino interactions in the DeepCore detector. In this contribution, the recent IceCube result from the atmospheric muon neutrino disappearance analysis using the CNN-reconstructed neutrino sample are presented and compared to the existing worldwide measurements

Angular dependence of the atmospheric neutrino flux with IceCube data

IceCube Neutrino Observatory, the cubic kilometer detector embedded in ice of the geographic South Pole, is capable of detecting particles from several GeV up to PeV energies enabling precise neutrino spectrum measurement. The diffuse neutrino flux can be subdivided into three components: astrophysical, from extraterrestrial sources; conventional, from pion and kaon decays in atmospheric Cosmic Ray cascades; and the yet undetected prompt component from the decay of charmed hadrons. A particular focus of this work is to test the predicted angular dependence of the atmospheric neutrino flux using an unfolding method. Unfolding is a set of methods aimed at determining a value from related quantities in a model-independent way, eliminating the influence of several assumptions made in the process. In this work, we unfold the muon neutrino energy spectrum and employ a novel technique for rebinning the observable space to ensure sufficient event numbers within the low statistic region at the highest energies. We present the unfolded energy and zenith angle spectrum reconstructed from IceCube data and compare the result with model expectations and previous measurements