Jay Forrester

Jay Wright Forrester was an American engineer and management thinker. He founded System Dynamics, an approach based on computer modelling which arguably has done more than any other method to provide a practical and realistic analysis of change processes in systems. System Dynamics (SD) has been taken up across the world, initially by Forrester’s students and colleagues, but increasingly by a much wider community. It has had profound and influential applications in a range of fields, most prominently organisational management, urban planning and environmental policy. Forrester summed up his concerns and his understanding of SD in an ‘elevator pitch’ (a statement short enough to be spoken in an elevator ride) on an email list: System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes most of what most people find important. It uses computer simulation to take the knowledge we already have about details in the world around us and to show why our social and physical systems behave the way they do. System dynamics demonstrates how most of our own decision-making policies are the cause of the problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify policies we can follow to improve our situation. (Forrester JW. System dynamics in the elevator. System-dynamics email list. https://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1787#p1964. Accessed 25 Sept 2019, 1997

Current and prospective pharmacotherapies for the treatment of pleural mesothelioma

Introduction: Mesothelioma is a rare asbestos-linked cancer with an expected incidence peak between 2015–2030. Therapies remain ineffective, thus developing and testing novel treatments is important for both oncologists and researchers. Areas covered: After describing mesothelioma and the shortcomings of current therapies, the article discusses numerous therapies in turn such as immunotherapy (passive and active), gene therapy (such as suicide gene therapy) and targeted therapy such as tyrosine kinase inhibitors. The bases for different therapies and clinical trials at different phases are also described. The article concludes by detailing possible reasons for therapy failure. Expert opinion: Despite the many attempts to uncover new therapeutic options, mesothelioma is still an orphan disease, complicated by factors such as the inflammatory microenvironment and low mutational load. Our opinion is that uncovering the biological mechanisms behind mesothelioma development will assist therapy development. The lack of efficacy of tyrosine kinase inhibitors and modest anti-angiogenic activity indicates a less relevant role for tumor cell proliferation and neoangiogenesis, thus the shortcut of treating mesothelioma with therapies from other cancers may be unsound. Conversely, many lines of evidence indicate that focussing on the survival mechanisms that tumor cells exploit may yield better therapeutics, particularly nutrition and cellular machinery

Neoadjuvant in situ gene-mediated cytotoxic immunotherapy improves postoperative outcomes in novel syngeneic esophageal carcinoma models

Esophageal carcinoma is the most rapidly increasing tumor in the United States and has a dismal 15% 5-year survival. Immunotherapy has been proposed to improve patient outcomes; however, no immunocompetent esophageal carcinoma model exists to date to test this approach. We developed two mouse models of esophageal cancer by inoculating immunocompetent mice with syngeneic esophageal cell lines transformed by cyclin-D1 or mutant HRASG12V and loss of p53. Similar to humans, surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy (cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil) demonstrated limited efficacy. Gene-mediated cyototoxic immunotherapy (adenoviral vector carrying the herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase gene in combination with the prodrug ganciclovir; AdV-tk/GCV) demonstrated high levels of in vitro transduction and efficacy. Using in vivo syngeneic esophageal carcinoma models, combining surgery, chemotherapy and AdV-tk/GCV improved survival (P=0.007) and decreased disease recurrence (P<0.001). Mechanistic studies suggested that AdV-tk/GCV mediated a direct cytotoxic effect and an increased intra-tumoral trafficking of CD8 T cells (8.15% vs 14.89%, P=0.02). These data provide the first preclinical evidence that augmenting standard of care with immunotherapy may improve outcomes in the management of esophageal carcinoma

Oncolytic measles viruses encoding interferon β and the thyroidal sodium iodide symporter gene for mesothelioma virotherapy

Mesothelioma usually leads to death within 8–14 months of diagnosis. To increase the potency of oncolytic measles viruses (MVs) for mesothelioma therapy, we inserted the interferon β (IFNβ) gene alone or with the human thyroidal sodium iodide symporter (NIS) gene into attenuated MV of the Edmonston lineage. The corresponding mouse IFNβ (mIFNβ) viruses, MV-mIFNβ and MV-mIFNβ-NIS, successfully propagated in human mesothelioma cells, leading to intercellular fusion and cell death. High levels of mIFNβ were detected in the supernatants of the infected cells, and radioiodine uptake was substantial in the cells infected with MV-mIFNβ-NIS. MV with mIFNβ expression triggered CD68-positive immune cell infiltration 2–4 times higher than MV-GFP injected into the tumor site. The numbers of CD31-positive vascular endothelial cells within the tumor were decreased at day 7 after intratumoral injection of MV-mIFNβ or MV-mIFNβ-NIS, but not after MV-GFP and PBS administration. Immunohistochemical analysis showed that MV-mIFNβ changed the microenvironment of the mesothelioma by increasing innate immune cell infiltration and inhibiting tumor angiogenesis. Oncolytic MVs coding for IFNβ effectively retarded growth of human mesotheliomas and prolonged survival time in several mesothelioma tumor models. The results suggest that oncolytic MVs that code for IFNβ and NIS will be potent and versatile agents for the treatment of human mesothelioma

Pleuro-pulmonary tumours detected by clinical and chest X-ray analyses in rats transplanted with mesothelioma cells

New strategies for cancer therapy must be developed, especially in severe neoplasms such as malignant pleural mesothelioma. Animal models of cancer, as close as possible to the human situation, are needed to investigate novel therapeutical approaches. Orthotopic transplantation of cancer cells is then relevant and efforts should be made to follow up tumour evolution in animals. In the present study, we developed a method for the orthotopic growth of mesothelioma cells in the pleural cavity of Fischer 344 and nude rats, along with a procedure for clinical survey. Two mesothelioma cell lines, of rat and human origin, were inoculated by transthoracic puncture. Body weight determination and chest X-ray analyses permitted the follow-up of tumour evolution by identifying different stages. Autopsies showed that tumours localized on the whole pleural cavity (diaphragm, parietal pleura), mediastinum and pericardium. Tumour morphology and antigenic characteristics were consistent with those of the inoculated cells and were similar in both types of rats inoculated with the same cell type. These results demonstrate that mesothelioma formation in rats can be followed up by clinical and radiographic survey after gentle intrathoracic inoculation of mesothelioma cells, thus allowing the definition of stages of interest for further experimental trials. © 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

A multicentre phase II study of cisplatin and gemcitabine for malignant mesothelioma

Our previous phase II study of cisplatin and gemcitabine in malignant mesothelioma showed a 47.6% (95% CI 26.2–69.0%) response rate with symptom improvement in responding patients. Here we confirm these findings in a multicentre setting, and assess the effect of this treatment on quality of life and pulmonary function. Fifty-three patients with pleural malignant mesothelioma received cisplatin 100 mg m−2 i.v. day 1 and gemcitabine 1000 mg m−2 i.v. days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28 day cycle for a maximum of six cycles. Quality of life and pulmonary function were assessed at each cycle. The best response achieved in 52 assessable patients was: partial response, 17 (33%, 95% CI 20–46%); stable disease, 31 (60%); and progressive disease, four (8%). The median time to disease progression was 6.4 months, median survival from start of treatment 11.2 months, and median survival from diagnosis 17.3 months. Vital capacity and global quality of life remained stable in all patients and improved significantly in responding patients. Major toxicities were haematological, limiting the mean relative dose intensity of gemcitabine to 75%. This schedule of cisplatin and gemcitabine is active in malignant mesothelioma in a multicentre setting. Investigation of alternative scheduling is needed to decrease haematological toxicity and increase the relative dose intensity of gemcitabine whilst maintaining response rate and quality of life

Mapping the multicausality of Alzheimer's disease through group model building.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex, multicausal disorder involving several spatiotemporal scales and scientific domains. While many studies focus on specific parts of this system, the complexity of AD is rarely studied as a whole. In this work, we apply systems thinking to map out known causal mechanisms and risk factors ranging from intracellular to psychosocial scales in sporadic AD. We report on the first systemic causal loop diagram (CLD) for AD, which is the result of an interdisciplinary group model building (GMB) process. The GMB was based on the input of experts from multiple domains and all proposed mechanisms were supported by scientific literature. The CLD elucidates interaction and feedback mechanisms that contribute to cognitive decline from midlife onward as described by the experts. As an immediate outcome, we observed several non-trivial reinforcing feedback loops involving factors at multiple spatial scales, which are rarely considered within the same theoretical framework. We also observed high centrality for modifiable risk factors such as social relationships and physical activity, which suggests they may be promising leverage points for interventions. This illustrates how a CLD from an interdisciplinary GMB process may lead to novel insights into complex disorders. Furthermore, the CLD is the first step in the development of a computational model for simulating the effects of risk factors on AD