Risk of diabetes after gestational diabetes and preeclampsia. A registry-based study of 230,000 women in Norway

This study aimed to use a population-based Prescription Database to explore later development of diabetes in women registered with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and/or preeclampsia in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (MBRN) during 2004–8. We used two nationwide Norwegian registries, the Norwegian Prescription Database and the MBRN, to explore the onset of later diabetes after pregnancy complications, indicated by receiving prescriptions of drugs used to treat diabetes, in 230,000 women giving birth in 2004–8. The mean follow-up of the study cohort was 3.7 years. Five years after pregnancy, about 19 and 2% of women with GDM and preeclampsia, respectively, received drugs used to treat diabetes, compared to 0.5% of those without these complications. The risk of being dispensed drugs used to treat diabetes within the first years after pregnancy was estimated to be 41 times (95% CI: 35–47) and 3.0 times (95% CI: 2.4–3.6) higher in women with GDM and preeclampsia, respectively, compared to women without these pregnancy complications. Women with pregnancies complicated with preeclampsia or GDM had an increased risk of later diabetes, especially those having GDM. If the increase in frequency of GDM observed in MBRN in recent years is real, a further increase in diabetic women can be expected

Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050 : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019

Background Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57middot4 (95% uncertainty interval 50middot4-65middot1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152middot8 (130middot8-175middot9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0middot1% [-7middot5 to 10middot8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot69 [1middot64-1middot73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1middot67 [1middot52-1middot85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Heart failure in Norway, 2000-2014: analyzing incident, total and readmission rates using data from the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

Postponed access until 23rd October 2020.Aims To examine trends in heart failure (HF) hospitalization rates and risk of readmissions following an incident HF hospitalization. Methods and results During 2000–2014, we identified in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway Project 142 109 hospitalizations with HF as primary diagnosis. Trends of incident and total (incident and recurrent) HF hospitalization rates were analysed using negative binomial regression models. Changes over time in 30-day and 3-year risk of HF recurrences or cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related readmissions were analysed using Fine and Grey competing risk regression, with death as competing events. Age-standardized rates declined on average 1.9% per year in men and 1.8% per year in women for incident HF hospitalizations (both Ptrend < 0.001) but did not change significantly in either men or women for total HF hospitalizations. In men surviving the incident HF hospitalization, 30-day and 3-year risk of a HF recurrent event increased 1.7% and 1.2% per year, respectively. Similarly, 30-day and 3-year risk of a CVD-related hospitalization increased 1.5% and 1.0% per year, respectively (all Ptrend < 0.001). No statistically significant changes in the risk of HF recurrences or CVD-related readmissions were observed among women. In-hospital mortality for a first and recurrent HF episode declined over time in both men and women. Conclusions Incident HF hospitalization rates declined in Norway during 2000–2014. An increase in the risk of recurrences in the context of reduced in-hospital mortality following an incident and recurrent HF hospitalization led to flat trends of total HF hospitalization rates.acceptedVersio

Mortality following first-time hospitalization with acute myocardial infarction in Norway, 2001-2014: Time trends, underlying causes and place of death

Background Trends on cause-specific mortality following acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are poorly described and no studies have analyzed where do AMI patients die. We analyzed trends in 28-day and one-year mortality following an incident AMI with focus on changes over time in the underlying cause and place of death. Methods We identified in the ‘Cardiovascular Disease in Norway’ Project all patients 25+ years, hospitalized with an incident AMI in Norway, 2001–2014. Information on date, underlying cause and place of death was obtained from the Cause of Death Registry. Results Of 144,473 patients included in the study, 11.4% died within first 28 days. The adjusted 28-day mortality declined by 5.2% per year (ptrend < 0.001). Of 118,881 patients surviving first 28 days, 10.1% died within one year. The adjusted one-year CVD mortality declined by 6.2% per year (ptrend < 0.001) while non-CVD mortality increased by 1.4% per year (ptrend < 0.001), mainly influenced by increased risk of dying from neoplasms. We observed a shift over time in the underlying cause of death toward more non-CVD deaths, and in the place of death toward more deaths occurring in nursing homes. Conclusions We observed a decline in 28-day mortality following an incident AMI hospitalization. One-year CVD mortality declined while one-year risk of dying from non-CVD conditions increased. The resulting shift toward more non-CVD deaths and deaths occurring outside a hospital need to be considered when formulating priorities in treating and preventing adverse events among AMI survivors.acceptedVersio

Heart Failure Complicating Acute Myocardial Infarction; Burden and Timing of Occurrence: A Nation-wide Analysis Including 86 771 Patients From the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) Project

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) represents often the underlying conditions for the development of heart failure (HF). We aimed at exploring the burden and timing of HF complicating an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), using the total population of AMI patients hospitalized during 2001–2009 in Norway. Methods and Results: A total of 86 771 patients with a first AMI during 2001–2009 and without previous HF were identified in the “Cardiovascular Disease in Norway” project and followed until HF development, death, or December 31, 2009. In 16 219 patients (18.7%), HF was present on admission or developed during hospitalization for the incident AMI. HF occurrence varied according to age (8.9%, 15.2%, and 25.6% among men and 10.2%, 16.8%, and 27.1% among women ages 25–54, 55–74, and 75–85 years). Among 63 853 patients discharged alive without HF, 8058 (12.6%) were hospitalized with or died because of HF during a median follow‐up time of 3.2 years. HF incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person‐years during follow‐up were 31 (95% CI, 30–32) for men and 46 (95% CI, 44–47) for women (P<0.01). IRs of HF were highest during the first 6 months of follow‐up, after which they leveled off and remained stable until the end of follow‐up. Conclusions: In this nation‐wide cohort study, we observed that HF remains a frequent complication of the first AMI; both during the acute phase and shortly after the discharge from the hospital.publishedVersio

Smoking, plasma cotinine and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Hordaland Health Study

Background: Cigarette smoking has been identified as a major modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease and mortality. However, findings on the relationship between smoking and atrial fibrillation (AF) have been inconsistent. Furthermore, findings from previous studies were based on self‐reported smoking. Objective: To examine the associations of smoking status and plasma cotinine levels, a marker of nicotine exposure, with risk of incident AF in the Hordaland Health Study. Methods: We conducted a prospective analysis of 6682 adults aged 46‐74 years without known AF at baseline. Participants were followed via linkage to the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project and the Cause of Death Registry. Smoking status was assessed by both questionnaire and plasma cotinine levels. Results: A total of 538 participants developed AF over a median follow‐up period of 11 years. Using questionnaire data, current smoking (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.09–1.83), but not former smoking (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.83–1.28), was associated with an increased risk of AF after adjustment for gender, age, body mass index, hypertension, physical activity and education. Using plasma cotinine only, the adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.40 (1.12–1.75) for participants with cotinine ≥85 nmol L−1 compared to those with cotinine <85 nmol L−1. However, the risk increased with elevated plasma cotinine levels until 1199 nmol L−1 (HR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.16–2.05 at the third group vs. the reference group) and plateaued at higher levels. Conclusions: Current, but not former smokers, had a higher risk of developing AF. Use of plasma cotinine measurement corroborated this finding.publishedVersio

Slaying little dragons: the impact of the Guinea Worm Eradication Program on dracunculiasis disability averted from 1990 to 2016

Background: The objective of this study was to document the worldwide decline of dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease, GWD) burden, expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 1990 to 2016, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study 2016 (GBD 2016). While the annual number of cases of GWD have been consistently reported by WHO since the 1990s, the burden of disability due to GWD has not previously been quantified in GBD.Methods: The incidence of GWD was modeled for each endemic country using annual national case reports. A literature search was conducted to characterize the presentation of GWD, translate the clinical symptoms into health sequelae, and then assign an average duration to the infection. Prevalence measures by sequelae were multiplied by disability weights to estimate DALYs.Results: The total DALYs attributed to GWD across all endemic countries (n=21) in 1990 was 50,725 (95% UI: 35,265–69,197) and decreased to 0.9 (95% UI: 0.5–1.4) in 2016. A cumulative total of 12,900 DALYs were attributable to GWD from 1990 to 2016.Conclusions: Using 1990 estimates of burden propagated forward, this analysis suggests that between 990,000 to 1.9 million DALYs have been averted as a result of the eradication program over the past 27 year

Plasma free choline, betaine and cognitive performance: the Hordaland Health Study

Choline and betaine are nutrients involved in one-carbon metabolism. Choline is essential for neurodevelopment and brain function. We studied the associations between cognitive function and plasma concentrations of free choline and betaine. In a cross-sectional study, 2195 subjects (55 % women), aged 70–74 years, underwent extensive cognitive testing including the Kendrick Object Learning Test (KOLT), Trail Making Test (part A, TMT-A), modified versions of the Digit Symbol Test (m-DST), Block Design (m-BD), Mini-Mental State Examination (m-MMSE) and Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Compared with low concentrations, high choline (>8·4 μmol/l) was associated with better test scores in the TMT-A (56·0 v. 61·5, P= 0·004), m-DST (10·5 v. 9·8, P= 0·005) and m-MMSE (11·5 v. 11·4, P= 0·01). A generalised additive regression model showed a positive dose–response relationship between the m-MMSE and choline (P= 0·012 from a corresponding linear regression model). Betaine was associated with the KOLT, TMT-A and COWAT, but after adjustments for potential confounders, the associations lost significance. Risk ratios (RR) for poor test performance roughly tripled when low choline was combined with either low plasma vitamin B12 ( ≤ 257 pmol/l) concentrations (RRKOLT= 2·6, 95 % CI 1·1, 6·1; RRm-MMSE= 2·7, 95 % CI 1·1, 6·6; RRCOWAT= 3·1, 95 % CI 1·4, 7·2) or high methylmalonic acid (MMA) ( ≥ 3·95 μmol/l) concentrations (RRm-BD= 2·8, 95 % CI 1·3, 6·1). Low betaine ( ≤ 31·1 μmol/l) combined with high MMA was associated with elevated RR on KOLT (RRKOLT= 2·5, 95 % CI 1·0, 6·2). Low plasma free choline concentrations are associated with poor cognitive performance. There were significant interactions between low choline or betaine and low vitamin B12 or high MMA on cognitive performance.publishedVersio