A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF THE AGES OF FOUR OPEN CLUSTERS

In this paper we apply a Bayesian technique to determine the best fit of stellar evolution models to find the main sequence turn off age and other cluster parameters of four intermediate-age open clusters: NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960. Our algorithm utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to fit these various parameters, objectively finding the best fit isochrone for each cluster. The result is a high precision isochrone fit. We compare these results with the those of traditional “by eye” isochrone fitting methods. By applying this Bayesian technique to NGC 2360, NGC 2477, NGC 2660, and NGC 3960 we determine the ages of these clusters to be 1.35 ± 0.05, 1.02 ± 0.02, 1.64 ± 0.04, and 0.860 ± 0.04 Gyr, respectively. The results of this paper continue our effort to determine cluster ages to higher precision than that offered by these traditional methods of isochrone fitting

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS OF TWO STELLAR POPULATIONS IN GALACTIC GLOBULAR CLUSTERS I: STATISTICAL AND COMPUTATIONAL METHODS

We develop a Bayesian model for globular clusters composed of multiple stellar populations, extending earlier statistical models for open clusters composed of simple (single) stellar populations (e.g., van Dyk et al. 2009; Stein et al. 2013). Specifically, we model globular clusters with two populations that differ in helium abundance. Our model assumes a hierarchical structuring of the parameters in which physical properties—age, metallicity, helium abundance, distance, absorption, and initial mass—are common to (i) the cluster as a whole or to (ii) individual populations within a cluster, or are unique to (iii) individual stars. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is devised for model fitting that greatly improves convergence relative to its precursor non-adaptive MCMC algorithm. Our model and computational tools are incorporated into an open-source software suite known as BASE-9. We use numerical studies to demonstrate that our method can recover parameters of two-population clusters, and also show model misspecification can potentially be identified. As a proof of concept, we analyze the two stellar populations of globular cluster NGC 5272 using our model and methods. (BASE-9 is available from GitHub: https://github.com/argiopetech/base/releases)

Adjunctive quetiapine for serotonin reuptake inhibitor-resistant obsessive-compulsive disorder: A meta-analysis of randomised controlled treatment trials

Small studies have shown positive effects from adding a variety of antipsychotic agents in patients with obsessive–compulsive disorder who are unresponsive to treatment with serotonin reuptake inhibitors. The evidence, however, is contradictory. This paper reports a meta-analysis of existing double-blind randomized placebo-controlled studies looking at the addition of the second-generation antipsychotic quetiapine in such cases. Three studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Altogether 102 individuals were subjected to analysis using Review Manager (4.2.7). The results showed evidence of efficacy for adjunctive quetiapine (< 400 mg/day) on the primary efficacy criterion, measured as changes from baseline in total Yale–Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale scores (P = 0.008), the clinical significance of which was limited by between-study heterogeneity. The mechanism underlying the effect may involve serotonin and/or dopamine neurotransmission

Acoustic Events in the Solar Atmosphere from Hinode/SOT NFI observations

We investigate the properties of acoustic events (AEs), defined as spatially concentrated and short duration energy flux, in the quiet sun using observations of a 2D field of view (FOV) with high spatial and temporal resolution provided by the Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) onboard \textit{Hinode}. Line profiles of Fe \textsc{i} 557.6 nm were recorded by the Narrow band Filter Imager (NFI) on a $82" \times 82"$ FOV during 75 min with a time step of 28.75 s and 0.08$"$ pixel size. Vertical velocities were computed at three atmospheric levels (80, 130 and 180 km) using the bisector technique allowing the determination of energy flux in the range 3-10 mHz using two complementary methods (Hilbert transform and Fourier power spectra). Horizontal velocities were computed using local correlation tracking (LCT) of continuum intensities providing divergences. The net energy flux is upward. In the range 3-10 mHz, a full FOV space and time averaged flux of 2700 W m$^{-2}$ (lower layer 80-130 km) and 2000 W m$^{-2}$ (upper layer 130-180 km) is concentrated in less than 1% of the solar surface in the form of narrow (0.3$"$) AE. Their total duration (including rise and decay) is of the order of $10^{3}$ s. Inside each AE, the mean flux is $1.6 10^{5}$ W m$^{-2}$ (lower layer) and $1.2 10^{5}$ W m$^{-2}$ (upper). Each event carries an average energy (flux integrated over space and time) of $2.5 10^{19}$ J (lower layer) to $1.9 10^{19}$ J (upper). More than $10^{6}$ events could exist permanently on the Sun, with a birth and decay rate of 3500 s$^{-1}$. Most events occur in intergranular lanes, downward velocity regions, and areas of converging motions.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Investigating hair zinc concentrations in children with and without atopic dermatitis

Background. Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a common chronic inflammatory skin condition that disproportionately affects children and is associated with reduced quality of life. Zinc deficiency may contribute to the pathogenesis of AD because zinc plays a role in epidermal barrier integrity and the immune system. Systematic review evidence suggests that low zinc is associated with AD, but limitations of included studies support further investigation.Objectives. To investigate hair zinc concentrations in children with AD v. healthy controls in a low- to middle-income country setting.Methods. One hundred and five children aged 1 - 12 yea­rs participated in a frequency-matched for age case-control study. The outcome variable, AD, was confirmed by a clinician and corroborated using the UK Working Party criteria. The primary predictor, long-term average zinc concentration, was determined by measuring hair zinc using inductively coupled mass spectrometry. Baseline demographic characteristics, anthropometry and measures of socioeconomic status were included in our logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analysis was performed where interaction terms suggested effect modification.Results. Using data from the overall sample, population median hair zinc was not significantly different between children with AD and healthy controls. However, subgroup analysis suggested a clinically and statistically significant difference in median zinc between children with AD (175.35 µg/g) and healthy controls (206.4 µg/g) in the older age group (5 - 12 years) (p=0.01). In this age group, multivariable logistic regression analysis also found significantly decreased hair zinc concentrations in AD (odds ratio 0.83; 95% confidence interval 0.66 - 0.96; p=0.046).Conclusions. The inverse association between zinc status and AD in children aged 5 - 12 years in our setting is consistent with the international literature. The clinical importance of decreased zinc levels in AD is not yet known. Further investigation into relevant underlying mechanisms seems warranted given the global reach of AD, its effect on quality of life, and the low cost of potential zinc-based interventions.

Bayesian Analysis of Two Stellar Populations in Galactic Globular Clusters II: NGC 5024, NGC 5272, and NGC 6352

We use Cycle 21 Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations and HST archival ACS Treasury observations of Galactic Globular Clusters to find and characterize two stellar populations in NGC 5024 (M53), NGC 5272 (M3), and NGC 6352. For these three clusters, both single and double-population analyses are used to determine a best fit isochrone(s). We employ a sophisticated Bayesian analysis technique to simultaneously fit the cluster parameters (age, distance, absorption, and metallicity) that characterize each cluster. For the two-population analysis, unique population level helium values are also fit to each distinct population of the cluster and the relative proportions of the populations are determined. We find differences in helium ranging from $\sim$0.05 to 0.11 for these three clusters. Model grids with solar $\alpha$-element abundances ([$\alpha$/Fe] =0.0) and enhanced $\alpha$-elements ([$\alpha$/Fe]=0.4) are adopted.Comment: ApJ, 21 pages, 14 figures, 7 table

Research review: young people leaving care

This paper reviews the international research on young people leaving care. Set in the context of a social exclusion framework, it explores young people's accelerated and compressed transitions to adulthood, and discusses the development and classification of leaving care services in responding to their needs. It then considers the evidence from outcome studies and argues that adopting a resilience framework suggests that young people leaving care may fall into three groups: young people 'moving on', 'survivors' and 'victims'. In concluding, it argues that these three pathways are associated with the quality of care young people receive, their transitions from care and the support they receive after care