System Dynamics Modelling and System Analysis Applied in Complex Research Projects - the Case of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply- and value chain systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

Applying System Analysis and System Dynamics Modelling In Complex Research Projects - The Case Of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

Sequence variants in the PTCH1 gene associate with spine bone mineral density and osteoporotic fractures

Bone mineral density (BMD) is a measure of osteoporosis and is useful in evaluating the risk of fracture. In a genome-wide association study of BMD among 20,100 Icelanders, with follow-up in 10,091 subjects of European and East-Asian descent, we found a new BMD locus that harbours the PTCH1 gene, represented by rs28377268 (freq. 11.4–22.6%) that associates with reduced spine BMD (P=1.0 × 10−11, β=−0.09). We also identified a new spine BMD signal in RSPO3, rs577721086 (freq. 6.8%), that associates with increased spine BMD (P=6.6 × 10−10, β=0.14). Importantly, both variants associate with osteoporotic fractures and affect expression of the PTCH1 and RSPO3 genes that is in line with their influence on BMD and known biological function of these genes. Additional new BMD signals were also found at the AXIN1 and SOST loci and a new lead SNP at the EN1 locus

Following the TraCS of exoplanets with Pan-Planets: Wendelstein-1b and Wendelstein-2b

Hot Jupiters seem to get rarer with decreasing stellar mass. The goal of the Pan-Planets transit survey was the detection of such planets and a statistical characterization of their frequency. Here, we announce the discovery and validation of two planets found in that survey, Wendelstein-1b and Wendelstein-2b, which are two short-period hot Jupiters that orbit late K host stars. We validated them both by the traditional method of radial velocity measurements with the HIgh Resolution Echelle Spectrometer and the Habitable-zone Planet Finder instruments and then by their Transit Color Signature (TraCS). We observed the targets in the wavelength range of 4000−24 000 Å and performed a simultaneous multiband transit fit and additionally determined their thermal emission via secondary eclipse observations. Wendelstein-1b is a hot Jupiter with a radius of 1.0314_(−0.0061)^(+0.0061) R_J and mass of 0.592_(−0.129)^(+0.0165) M_J, orbiting a K7V dwarf star at a period of 2.66 d, and has an estimated surface temperature of about 1727₋₉₀⁺⁷⁸ K. Wendelstein-2b is a hot Jupiter with a radius of 1.1592_(−0.0210)^(+0.0204) R_J and a mass of 0.731_(−0.311)^(+0.0541) M_J, orbiting a K6V dwarf star at a period of 1.75 d, and has an estimated surface temperature of about 1852₋₁₄₀⁺¹²⁰ K. With this, we demonstrate that multiband photometry is an effective way of validating transiting exoplanets, in particular for fainter targets since radial velocity follow-up becomes more and more costly for those targets

European bone mineral density loci are also associated with BMD in East-Asian populations

Most genome-wide association (GWA) studies have focused on populations of European ancestry with limited assessment of the influence of the sequence variants on populations of other ethnicities. To determine whether markers that we have recently shown to associate with Bone Mineral Density (BMD) in Europeans also associate with BMD in East-Asians we analysed 50 markers from 23 genomic loci in samples from Korea (n = 1,397) and two Chinese Hong Kong sample sets (n = 3,869 and n = 785). Through this effort we identified fourteen loci that associated with BMD in East-Asian samples using a false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05; 1p36 (ZBTB40, P = 4.3×10 -9), 1p31 (GPR177, P = 0.00012), 3p22 (CTNNB1, P = 0.00013), 4q22 (MEPE, P = 0.0026), 5q14 (MEF2C, P = 1.3×10 -5), 6q25 (ESR1, P = 0.0011), 7p14 (STARD3NL, P = 0.00025), 7q21 (FLJ42280, P = 0.00017), 8q24 (TNFRSF11B, P = 3.4×10 -5), 11p15 (SOX6, P = 0.00033), 11q13 (LRP5, P = 0.0033), 13q14 (TNFSF11, P = 7.5×10 -5), 16q24 (FOXL1, P = 0.0010) and 17q21 (SOST, P = 0.015). Our study marks an early effort towards the challenge of cataloguing bone density variants shared by many ethnicities by testing BMD variants that have been established in Europeans, in East-Asians. © 2010 Styrkarsdottir et al.published_or_final_versio

Selection against variants in the genome associated with educational attainment

Epidemiological and genetic association studies show that genetics play an important role in the attainment of education. Here, we investigate the effect of this genetic component on the reproductive history of 109,120 Icelanders and the consequent impact on the gene pool over time. We show that an educational attainment polygenic score, POLYEDU, constructed from results of a recent study is associated with delayed reproduction (P < 10-100) and fewer children overall. The effect is stronger for women and remains highly significant after adjusting for educational attainment. Based on 129,808 Icelanders born between 1910 and 1990, we find that the average POLYEDU has been declining at a rate of ∼0.010 standard units per decade, which is substantial on an evolutionary timescale. Most importantly, because POLYEDU only captures a fraction of the overall underlying genetic component the latter could be declining at a rate that is two to three times faster

GWAS of bone size yields twelve loci that also affect height, BMD, osteoarthritis or fractures

© 2019, The Author(s). Bone area is one measure of bone size that is easily derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. In a GWA study of DXA bone area of the hip and lumbar spine (N ≥ 28,954), we find thirteen independent association signals at twelve loci that replicate in samples of European and East Asian descent (N = 13,608 – 21,277). Eight DXA area loci associate with osteoarthritis, including rs143384 in GDF5 and a missense variant in COL11A1 (rs3753841). The strongest DXA area association is with rs11614913[T] in the microRNA MIR196A2 gene that associates with lumbar spine area (P = 2.3 × 10−42, β = −0.090) and confers risk of hip fracture (P = 1.0 × 10−8, OR = 1.11). We demonstrate that the risk allele is less efficient in repressing miR-196a-5p target genes. We also show that the DXA area measure contributes to the risk of hip fracture independent of bone density

High BMI is significantly associated with positive progesterone receptor status and clinico-pathological markers for non-aggressive disease in endometrial cancer

Background: Endometrial cancer incidence is increasing in industrialised countries. High body mass index (BMI, kg m−2) is associated with higher risk for disease. We wanted to investigate if BMI is related to clinico-pathological characteristics, hormone receptor status in primary tumour, and disease outcome in endometrial cancer. Patients and methods: In total, 1129 women primarily treated for endometrial carcinoma at Haukeland University Hospital during 1981–2009 were studied. Body mass index was available for 949 patients and related to comprehensive clinical and histopathological data, hormone receptor status in tumour, treatment, and follow-up. Results: High BMI was significantly associated with low International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, endometrioid histology, low/intermediate grade, and high level of progesterone receptor (PR) mRNA by qPCR (n=150; P=0.02) and protein expression by immunohistochemistry (n=433; P=0.003). In contrast, oestrogen receptor (ERα) status was not associated with BMI. Overweight/obese women had significantly better disease-specific survival (DSS) than normal/underweight women in univariate analysis (P=0.035). In multivariate analysis of DSS adjusting for age, FIGO stage, histological subtype, and grade, BMI showed no independent prognostic impact. Conclusion: High BMI was significantly associated with markers of non-aggressive disease and positive PR status in a large population-based study of endometrial carcinoma. Women with high BMI had significantly better prognosis in univariate analysis of DSS, an effect that disappeared in multivariate analysis adjusting for established prognostic markers. The role of PR in endometrial carcinogenesis needs to be further studied

Genetic variability in the absorption of dietary sterols affects the risk of coronary artery disease

AIMS: To explore whether variability in dietary cholesterol and phytosterol absorption impacts the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) using as instruments sequence variants in the ABCG5/8 genes, key regulators of intestinal absorption of dietary sterols. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined the effects of ABCG5/8 variants on non-high-density lipoprotein (non-HDL) cholesterol (N up to 610 532) and phytosterol levels (N = 3039) and the risk of CAD in Iceland, Denmark, and the UK Biobank (105 490 cases and 844 025 controls). We used genetic scores for non-HDL cholesterol to determine whether ABCG5/8 variants confer greater risk of CAD than predicted by their effect on non-HDL cholesterol. We identified nine rare ABCG5/8 coding variants with substantial impact on non-HDL cholesterol. Carriers have elevated phytosterol levels and are at increased risk of CAD. Consistent with impact on ABCG5/8 transporter function in hepatocytes, eight rare ABCG5/8 variants associate with gallstones. A genetic score of ABCG5/8 variants predicting 1 mmol/L increase in non-HDL cholesterol associates with two-fold increase in CAD risk [odds ratio (OR) = 2.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-2.31, P = 9.8 × 10-23] compared with a 54% increase in CAD risk (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.49-1.59, P = 1.1 × 10-154) associated with a score of other non-HDL cholesterol variants predicting the same increase in non-HDL cholesterol (P for difference in effects = 2.4 × 10-4). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation in cholesterol absorption affects levels of circulating non-HDL cholesterol and risk of CAD. Our results indicate that both dietary cholesterol and phytosterols contribute directly to atherogenesis