Nonparametric estimates of pricing functionals

We analyze the empirical performance of several non-parametric estimators of the pricing functional for European options, using historical put and call prices on the S&P500 during the year 2012. Two main families of estimators are considered, obtained by estimating the pricing functional directly, and by estimating the (Black-Scholes) implied volatility surface, respectively. In each case simple estimators based on linear interpolation are constructed, as well as more sophisticated ones based on smoothing kernels, \`a la Nadaraya-Watson. The results based on the analysis of the empirical pricing errors in an extensive out-of-sample study indicate that a simple approach based on the Black-Scholes formula coupled with linear interpolation of the volatility surface outperforms, both in accuracy and computational speed, all other methods

THE BRITISH OPT-OUT FROM THE EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM MONETARY POLICY RULES

We analyze the current state of the monetary integration in Europe focusing on the UK position regarding the European Monetary Union. The interest rates decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are compared through different specifications of the Taylor Rule. The comparison of the monetary conducts provides a useful feedback when looking for the differences claimed by the British government as motivating the UK refusal to join the European Monetary Union. Testing for a forward looking behavior and possible asymmetries in the policy responses, we show evidence supporting the opt-out by the UK monetary authorities.Taylor rule; European monetary integration; Regime switching models; Interest rate smoothing.

Time Varying Sensitivities on a GRID architecture

We estimate time varying risk sensitivities on a wide range of stocks' portfolios of the US market. We empirically test, on a 1926-2004 Monthly CRSP database, a classic one factor model augmented with a time varying specification of betas. Using a Kalman filter based on a genetic algorithm, we show that the model is able to explain a large part of the variability of stock returns. Furthermore we run a Risk Management application on a GRID computing architecture. By estimating a parametric Value at Risk, we show how GRID computing offers an opportunity to enhance the solution of computational demanding problems with decentralized data retrieval.

RATIONAL IGNORANCE IN LONG-RUN RISK MODELS

We document an unpleasant feature of Epstein-Zin preferences in a stylized model economy of the long-run risk type now widespread in Asset Pricing: Agents with preference parameters commonly described as indicating a "preference for early resolution of uncertainty" achieve higher utility levels if they can commit to ignoring information on the state of the business cycle. For parameter choices similar to those used to explain asset prices, an agent can achieve utility gains equivalent to a more than 40 % increase in life-time consumption by committing to ignore information on the trend growth rate of the endowment good. We show that opting for such a coarser information set can be implemented and supported as an equilibrium strategy.Recursive preferences; Epstein-Zin preferences; Uncertainty aversion; Information processing; Time inconsistency

Information Quality and Stock Returns Revisited

Building on the seminal work of Veronesi (2000), we investigate the relationship between the quality of information on the state of the economy and equity risk premium. In this, we use a setup where investors have Epstein-Zin preferences and the economy switches between booms and recessions at random intervals (Hamilton, 1989). Calibrating the model to fit the business cycle patterns in the US postwar data, we are able to establish two key results: First, as conjectured in the existing literature, we demonstrate that investors with high intertemporal elasticity of substitution will require lower excess returns for holding stocks if they are provided with better information on the state of the economy. Second, and even more interesting (since not predicted in the literature), we find that this will also hold for investors with a moderate elasticity of intertemporal substitution if they are moderately risk averse.

ASSET PRICING AND THE ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY

Standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models are well known to generate counter-factual asset pricing implications. This paper provides a simple extension to the prior literature where we study an economy that follows a regimes switching process both in the mean and the volatility, in conjunction with Epstein-Zin preferences for the consumers. We provide a detailed theoretical and numerical analysis of the model's predictions. We also show that a reasonable parameterization of our model conveys reasonable financial figures. Furthermore, we provide evidence in support of the necessity to model the decline of macroeconomic risk in this particular class of models.Asset Pricing, Real Business Cycle Models, Recursive Preferences, Markov Switching Models

Information processing with recursive utility: some intriguing results

We study information processing in a simple endowment economy where the mean consumption growth rate are governed by a hidden state variable and agents have recursive preferences. We show that for typical parameter values, there is a strong incentive to commit to ignoring future information on the state of the economy, but that such commitment raises time-inconsistency problems. We estimate the model on postwar US data and find that the representative consumer can achieve a utility gain equivalent to a 20% increase in lifetime consumption simply by not paying attention to the state of the economy.Recursive preferences, Epstein-Zin preferences, Uncertainty aversion,Information processing, Time inconsistency

International Stock-Bond Correlations in a Simple Affine Asset Pricing Model

In this paper we use an affine asset pricing model to jointly value stocks and bonds. This enables us to derive endogenous correlations and to explain how economic fundamentals influence the correlation between stock and bond returns. The presented model is implemented for G7 post- war economies and its in-sample and out-of-sample performance is assessed by comparing the correlations generated by the model with conventional statistical measures. The affine framework developed in this paper is found to generate stock-bond correlations that are in line with empirically observed figuresAffine Pricing Models, Stock-Bond Correlations, G-7 Countries

TESTING HABITS IN AN ASSET PRICING MODEL

We develop a model of asset pricing assuming that investor's behavior is habit forming. The model predicts that the effect of consumption growth shocks on the risk premium depends on the business cycle phase of the economy. This empirical implication is tested with a Markovswitching VAR model on the US postwar economy. The results show that the response of the risk premium to shocks to consumption is not significantly different over the business cycle phases of the economy. We interpret this as evidence against the habit formation hypothesis of the investor's behavior.Habit formation, Equity premium, Business cycle, Markovswitching VAR models