Improving land change detection based on uncertain survey maps using fuzzy sets

In this paper we present a method for correcting inherent classification bias in historical survey maps with which subsequent land cover change analysis can be improved. We linked generalized linear modelling techniques for spatial uncertainty prediction to fuzzy set based operations. The predicted uncertainty information was used to compute fuzzy memberships of forest and non-forest classes at each location. These memberships were used to reclassify the original map based on decision rules, which take into consideration the differences in identification likelihood during the historical mapping. Since the forest area was underestimated in the original mapping, the process allows to correct this bias by favouring forest, especially where uncertainty was high. The analyses were performed in a cross-wise manner between two study areas in order to examine whether the bias correction algorithm would still hold in an independent test area. Our approach resulted in a significant improvement of the original map as indicated by an increase of the Normalized Mutual Information from 0.26 and 0.36 to 0.38 and 0.45 for the cross-wise test against reference maps in Pontresina and St. Moritz, respectively. Consequently subsequent land cover change assessments could be considerably improved by reducing the deviations from a reference change by almost 50 percent. We concluded that the use of logistic regression techniques for uncertainty modelling based on topographic gradients and fuzzy set operations are useful tools for predictively reducing uncertainty in maps and land cover change models. The procedure allows to get more reliable area estimates of crisp classes and it improves the computation of the fuzzy areas of classes. The approach has limitations when the original map shows high initial accurac

A framework for scale-sensitive, spatially explicit accuracy assessment of binary built-up surface layers

To better understand the dynamics of human settlements, thorough knowledge of the uncertainty in geospatial built-up surface datasets is critical. While frameworks for localized accuracy assessments of categorical gridded data have been proposed to account for the spatial non-stationarity of classification accuracy, such approaches have not been applied to (binary) built-up land data. Such data differs from other data such as land cover data, due to considerable variations of built-up surface density across the rural-urban continuum resulting in switches of class imbalance, causing sparsely populated confusion matrices based on small underlying sample sizes. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by testing common agreement measures for their suitability and plausibility to measure the localized accuracy of built-up surface data. We examine the sensitivity of localized accuracy to the assessment support, as well as to the unit of analysis, and analyze the relationships between local accuracy and density / structure-related properties of built-up areas, across rural-urban trajectories and over time. Our experiments are based on the multi-temporal Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and a reference database for the state of Massachusetts (USA). We find strong variation of suitability among commonly used agreement measures, and varying levels of sensitivity to the assessment support. We then apply our framework to assess localized GHSL data accuracy over time from 1975 to 2014. Besides increasing accuracy along the rural-urban gradient, we find that accuracy generally increases over time, mainly driven by peri-urban densification processes in our study area. Moreover, we find that localized densification measures derived from the GHSL tend to overestimate peri-urban densification processes that occurred between 1975 and 2014, due to higher levels of omission errors in the GHSL epoch 1975.Comment: 28 pages, 17 figure

Spatial modeling of personalized exposure dynamics: the case of pesticide use in small-scale agricultural production landscapes of the developing world

Background: Pesticide poisoning is a global health issue with the largest impacts in the developing countries where residential and small-scale agricultural areas are often integrated and pesticides sprayed manually. To reduce health risks from pesticide exposure approaches for personalized exposure assessment (PEA) are needed. We present a conceptual framework to develop a spatial individual-based model (IBM) prototype for assessing potential exposure of farm-workers conducting small-scale agricultural production, which accounts for a considerable portion of global food crop production. Our approach accounts for dynamics in the contaminant distributions in the environment, as well as patterns of movement and activities performed on an individual level under different safety scenarios. We demonstrate a first prototype using data from a study area in a rural part of Colombia, South America. Results: Different safety scenarios of PEA were run by including weighting schemes for activities performed under different safety conditions. We examined the sensitivity of individual exposure estimates to varying patterns of pesticide application and varying individual patterns of movement. This resulted in a considerable variation in estimates of magnitude, frequency and duration of exposure over the model runs for each individual as well as between individuals. These findings indicate the influence of patterns of pesticide application, individual spatial patterns of movement as well as safety conditions on personalized exposure in the agricultural production landscape that is the focus of our research. Conclusion: This approach represents a conceptual framework for developing individual based models to carry out PEA in small-scale agricultural settings in the developing world based on individual patterns of movement, safety conditions, and dynamic contaminant distributions. The results of our analysis indicate our prototype model is sufficiently sensitive to differentiate and quantify the influence of individual patterns of movement and decision-based pesticide management activities on potential exposure. This approach represents a framework for further understanding the contribution of agricultural pesticide use to exposure in the small-scale agricultural production landscape of many developing countries, and could be useful to evaluate public health intervention strategies to reduce risks to farm-workers and their families. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model

Urban Change in the United States, 1990-2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

In today&rsquo;s increasingly urban world, understanding the components of urban population growth is essential. While the demographic components of natural increase and migration have received the overwhelming share of attention to date, this paper addresses the effects of administrative reclassification on urban population growth as derived from census data, which remain largely unstudied. We adopt a spatial approach, using the finest resolution US census data available for three decennial census periods, to estimate the magnitude of reclassification and examine the spatial-temporal variation in reclassification effects. We supplement the census data by using satellite-derived settlement data to further explain reclassification outcomes. We find that while 10% and 7% of the population live in areas that underwent urban/rural reclassification during the 1990&ndash;2000 and 2000&ndash;2010 time periods, respectively (with smaller fractions of corresponding land), reclassification has a substantial effect on metrics derived to characterize the urbanization process&mdash;comprising roughly 44% and 34% of total urban population growth over each period. The estimated magnitude of this effect is sensitive to assumptions regarding the timing of reclassification. The approach also reveals where, how, to what degree, and, in some part, why reclassification is affecting to the process of urbanization on the fine spatial scale, including the impact of underlying demographic processes. This research provides new directions to more effectively study coupled nature&ndash;human systems and their interactions.</div

Variation by Geographic Scale in the Migration-Environment Association: Evidence from Rural South Africa

"Scholarly understanding of human migration's environmental dimensions has greatly advanced in the past several years, motivated in large part by public and policy dialogue around 'climate migrants'. The research presented here advances current demographic scholarship both through its substantive interpretations and conclusions, as well as its methodological approach. We examine temporary rural South African outmigration as related to household-level availability of proximate natural resources. Such 'natural capital' is central to livelihoods in the region, both for sustenance and as materials for market-bound products. The results demonstrate that the association between local environmental resource availability and outmigration is, in general, positive: households with higher levels of proximate natural capital are more likely to engage in temporary migration. In this way, the general findings support the 'environmental surplus' hypothesis that resource security provides a foundation from which households can invest in migration as a livelihood strategy. Such insight stands in contrast to popular dialogue, which tends to view migration as a last resort undertaken only by the most vulnerable households. As another important insight, our findings demonstrate important spatial variation, complicating attempts to generalize migration-environment findings across spatial scales. In our rural South African study site, the positive association between migration and proximate resources is actually highly localized, varying from strongly positive in some villages to strongly negative in others. We explore the socio-demographic factors underlying this 'operational scale sensitivity'. The cross-scale methodologies applied here offer nuance unavailable within more commonly used global regression models, although also introducing complexity that complicates story-telling and inhibits generalizability." (author's abstract

A century of decoupling size and structure of urban spaces in the United States

Most cities in the United States of America are thought to have followed similar development trajectories to evolve into their present form. However, data on spatial development of cities are limited prior to 1970. Here we leverage a compilation of high-resolution spatial land use and building data to examine the evolving size and form (shape and structure) of US metropolitan areas since the early twentieth century. Our analysis of building patterns over 100 years reveals strong regularities in the development of the size and density of cities and their surroundings, regardless of timing or location of development. At the same time, we find that trajectories regarding shape and structure are harder to codify and more complex. We conclude that these discrepant developments of urban size- and form-related characteristics are driven, in part, by the long-term decoupling of these two sets of attributes over time. </div

Automated Extraction of Human Settlement Patterns From Historical Topographic Map Series Using Weakly Supervised Convolutional Neural Networks

Information extraction from historical maps represents a persistent challenge due to inferior graphical quality and the large data volume of digital map archives, which can hold thousands of digitized map sheets. Traditional map processing techniques typically rely on manually collected templates of the symbol of interest, and thus are not suitable for large-scale information extraction. In order to digitally preserve such large amounts of valuable retrospective geographic information, high levels of automation are required. Herein, we propose an automated machine-learning based framework to extract human settlement symbols, such as buildings and urban areas from historical topographic maps in the absence of training data, employing contemporary geospatial data as ancillary data to guide the collection of training samples. These samples are then used to train a convolutional neural network for semantic image segmentation, allowing for the extraction of human settlement patterns in an analysis-ready geospatial vector data format. We test our method on United States Geological Survey historical topographic maps published between 1893 and 1954. The results are promising, indicating high degrees of completeness in the extracted settlement features (i.e., recall of up to 0.96, F-measure of up to 0.79) and will guide the next steps to provide a fully automated operational approach for large-scale geographic feature extraction from a variety of historical map series. Moreover, the proposed framework provides a robust approach for the recognition of objects which are small in size, generalizable to many kinds of visual documents.</div

Place-level urban-rural indices for the United States from 1930 to 2018

Rural-urban classifications are essential for analyzing geographic, demographic, environmental, and social processes across the rural-urban continuum. Most existing classifications are, however, only available at relatively aggregated spatial scales, such as at the county scale in the United States. The absence of rurality or urbanness measures at high spatial resolution poses significant problems when the process of interest is highly localized, as with the incorporation of rural towns and villages into encroaching metropolitan areas. Moreover, existing rural-urban classifications are often inconsistent over time, or require complex, multi-source input data (e.g., remote sensing observations or road network data), thus, prohibiting the longitudinal analysis of rural-urban dynamics. Here, we develop a set of distance- and spatial-network-based methods for consistently estimating the remoteness and rurality of places at fine spatial resolution, over long periods of time. We demonstrate the utility of our approach by constructing indices of urbanness for 30,000 places in the United States from 1930 to 2018 and further test the plausibility of our results against a variety of evaluation datasets. We call these indices the place-level urban-rural index (PLURAL) and make the resulting datasets publicly available (https://doi.org/10.3886/E162941) so that other researchers can conduct long-term, fine-grained analyses of urban and rural change. In addition, due to the simplistic nature of the input data, these methods can be generalized to other time periods or regions of the world, particularly to data-scarce environments.</jats:p

Fine-grained, spatiotemporal datasets measuring 200 years of land development in the United States

The collection, processing, and analysis of remote sensing data since the early 1970s has rapidly improved our understanding of change on the Earth’s surface. While satellite-based Earth observation has proven to be of vast scientific value, these data are typically confined to recent decades of observation and often lack important thematic detail. Here, we advance in this arena by constructing new spatially explicit settlement data for the United States that extend back to the early 19th century and are consistently enumerated at fine spatial and temporal granularity (i.e. 250m spatial and 5-year temporal resolution). We create these time series using a large, novel building-stock database to extract and map retrospective, fine-grained spatial distributions of built-up properties in the conterminous United States from 1810 to 2015. From our data extraction, we analyse and publish a series of gridded geospatial datasets that enable novel retrospective historical analysis of the built environment at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. The datasets are part of the Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the United States (https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/hisdacus, last access: 25 January 2021) and are available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/YSWMDR (Uhl and Leyk, 2020a), https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SJ213V (Uhl and Leyk, 2020b), and https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/J6CYUJ (Uhl and Leyk, 2020c)