Procedures for assessing psychological predictors of injuries in circus artists: a pilot prospective study

Background: Research on psychological risk factors for injury has focused on stable traits. Our objective was to test the feasibility of a prospective longitudinal study designed to examine labile psychological states as risk factors of injury. Methods: We measured psychological traits at baseline (mood, ways of coping and anxiety), and psychological states every day (1-item questions on anxiety, sleep, fatigue, soreness, self-confidence) before performances in Cirque du Soleil artists of the show “O”. Additional questions were added once per week to better assess anxiety (20-item) and mood. Questionnaires were provided in English, French, Russian and Japanese. Injury and exposure data were extracted from electronic records that are kept as part of routine business practices. Results: The 43.9% (36/82) recruitment rate was more than expected. Most artists completed the baseline questionnaires in 15 min, a weekly questionnaire in <2 min and a daily questionnaire in <1 min. We improved the formatting of some questions during the study, and adapted the wording of other questions to improve clarity. There were no dropouts during the entire study, suggesting the questionnaires were appropriate in content and length. Results for sample size calculations depend on the number of artists followed and the minimal important difference in injury rates, but in general, preclude a purely prospective study with daily data collection because of the long follow-up required. However, a prospective nested case-crossover design with data collection bi-weekly and at the time of injury appears feasible. Conclusion: A prospective study collecting psychological state data from subjects who train and work regularly together is feasible, but sample size calculations suggest that the optimal study design would use prospective nested case-crossover methodology

Risk of bias from inclusion of patients who already have diagnosis of or are undergoing treatment for depression in diagnostic accuracy studies of screening tools for depression: systematic review

Objectives To investigate the proportion of original studies included in systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the diagnostic accuracy of screening tools for depression that appropriately exclude patients who already have a diagnosis of or are receiving treatment for depression and to determine whether these systematic reviews and meta-analyses evaluate possible bias from the inclusion of such patients

Knowledge-based patient screening for rare and emerging infectious/parasitic diseases: a case study of brucellosis and murine typhus.

Many infectious and parasitic diseases, especially those newly emerging or reemerging, present a difficult diagnostic challenge because of their obscurity and low incidence. Important clues that could lead to an initial diagnosis are often overlooked, misinterpreted, not linked to a disease, or disregarded. We constructed a computer-based decision support system containing 223 infectious and parasitic diseases and used it to conduct a historical intervention study based on field investigation records of 200 cases of human brucellosis and 96 cases of murine typhus that occurred in Texas from 1980 through 1989. Knowledge-based screening showed that the average number of days from the initial patient visit to the time of correct diagnosis was significantly reduced (brucellosis-from 17.9 to 4.5 days, p = 0.0001, murine typhus-from 11.5 to 8.6 days, p = 0.001). This study demonstrates the potential value of knowledge-based patient screening for rare infectious and parasitic diseases

Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades

Climate change is resulting in global changes to sea level and wave climates,which in many locations significantly increasethe probability of erosion, floodingand damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems.Therefore, there isa pressing societal need to be able to forecast themorphological evolution of our coastlines over a broad range of timescales, spanningdays-to-decades, facilitating more focussed, appropriate,and cost-effective management interventions and data informed planning to support thedevelopment of coastal environments. A wide range of modelling approaches have been used with varying degrees of success to assess both the detailed morphological evolution and/or simplified indicators of coastal erosion/accretion.This paper presents an overview of these modelling approaches, covering the full range of the complexity spectrum, summarising the advantages and disadvantages of eachmethod. A focus is given to reduced-complexity modelling approaches, including models based on equilibrium concepts, which have emerged as a particularly promising methodology for the prediction ofcoastal change over multi-decadal timescales. The advantages of stable, computationally-efficient, reduced-complexity models must be balanced against the requirement for good generality and skill in diverse and complex coastal settings. Significant obstacles are also identified, limiting the generic application of models at regional and global scales. Challenges include: the accurate long-term predictionof model forcing time-series in a changing climate, and accounting for processes that can largely be ignored in the shorter term but increase in importance in the long-term.Further complications include coastal complexities, such asthe accurate assessment of the impacts of headland bypassing. Additional complexities includecomplex structures and geology, mixed grainsize,limited sediment supply, sources and sinks. It is concluded that with present computational resources, data availability limitations and process knowledge gaps, reduced-complexity modelling approaches currently offer the most promising solution to modelling shoreline evolution on daily-to-decadal timescales

Neutron-poor nickel isotope anomalies in meteorites

We present new, mass-independent, Ni isotope data for a range of bulk chondritic meteorites. The data are reported as ε60Ni58/61 , ε62Ni58/61 , and ε64Ni58/61 , or the parts per ten thousand deviations from a terrestrial reference, the NIST SRM 986 standard, of the 58Ni/61Ni internally normalized 60Ni/61Ni, 62Ni/61Ni, and 64Ni/61Ni ratios. The chondrites show a range of 0.15, 0.29, and 0.84 in ε60Ni58/61 , ε62Ni58/61, and ε64Ni58/61 relative to a typical sample precision of 0.03, 0.05, and 0.08 (2 s.e.), respectively. The carbonaceous chondrites show the largest positive anomalies, enstatite chondrites have approximately terrestrial ratios, though only EH match Earth's composition within uncertainty, and ordinary chondrites show negative anomalies. The meteorite data show a strong positive correlation between ε62Ni58/61 and ε64Ni58/61, an extrapolation of which is within the error of the average of previous measurements of calcium-, aluminium-rich inclusions. Moreover, the slope of this bulk meteorite array is 3.003 ± 0.166 which is within the error of that expected for an anomaly solely on 58Ni. We also determined to high precision (~10 ppm per AMU) the mass-dependent fractionation of two meteorite samples which span the range of ε62Ni58/61 and ε64Ni58/61. These analyses show that "absolute" ratios of 58Ni/61Ni vary between these two samples whereas those of 62Ni/61Ni and 64Ni/61Ni do not. Thus, Ni isotopic differences seem most likely explained by variability in the neutron-poor 58Ni, and not correlated anomalies in the neutron-rich isotopes, 62Ni and 64Ni. This contrasts with previous inferences from mass-independent measurements of Ni and other transition elements which invoked variable contributions of a neutron-rich component. We have examined different nucleosynthetic environments to determine the possible source of the anomalous material responsible for the isotopic variations observed in Ni and other transition elements within bulk samples. We find that the Ni isotopic variability of the solar system cannot be explained by mixing with a component of bulk stellar ejecta from either SN II, Wolf-Rayet or, an asymptotic giant branch source and is unlikely to result from bulk mixing of material from an SN Ia. However, variable admixture of material from the Si/S zone of an SN II can create all the characteristics of Ni isotope variations in solar system materials. Moreover, these characteristics can also be provided by an SN II with a range of masses from 15 to 40 M☉ , showing that input from SN II is a robust source for Ni isotope variations in the solar system. Correlations of Ni isotope anomalies with O, Cr, and Ti isotope ratios and Pb/Yb in bulk meteorites suggest that the heterogeneous distribution of isotopic anomalies in the early solar system likely resulted from nebular sorting of chemically or physically different materials bearing different amounts of isotopes synthesized proximally to the collapse of the protosolar nebula.PostprintPeer reviewe

The Transitional Stripped-Envelope SN 2008ax: Spectral Evolution and Evidence for Large Asphericity

Supernova (SN) 2008ax in NGC 4490 was discovered within hours after shock breakout, presenting the rare opportunity to study a core-collapse SN beginning with the initial envelope-cooling phase immediately following shock breakout. We present an extensive sequence of optical and near-infrared spectra, as well as three epochs of optical spectropolarimetry. Our initial spectra, taken two days after shock breakout, are dominated by hydrogen Balmer lines at high velocity. However, by maximum light, He I lines dominated the optical and near-infrared spectra, which closely resembled those of normal Type Ib supernovae (SNe Ib) such as SN 1999ex. This spectroscopic transition defines Type IIb supernovae, but the strong similarity of SN 2008ax to normal SNe Ib beginning near maximum light, including an absorption feature near 6270A due to H-alpha at high velocities, suggests that many objects classified as SNe Ib in the literature may have ejected similar amounts of hydrogen as SN 2008ax, roughly a few x 0.01 M_sun. Early-time spectropolarimetry (6 and 9 days after shock breakout) revealed strong line polarization modulations of 3.4% across H-alpha, indicating the presence of large asphericities in the outer ejecta. The continuum shares a common polarization angle with the hydrogen, helium, and oxygen lines, while the calcium and iron absorptions are oriented at different angles. This is clear evidence of deviations from axisymmetry even in the outer ejecta. Intrinsic continuum polarization of 0.64% only nine days after shock breakout shows that the outer layers of the ejecta were quite aspherical. A single epoch of late-time spectropolarimetry, as well as the shapes of the nebular line profiles, demonstrate that asphericities extended from the outermost layers all the way down to the center of this SN. [Abridged]Comment: 24 pages, 21 figures, 4 tables, appendix, minor revisions to match version accepted by Ap

Teaching Access, or Freedom of Information Law

Based on the author\u27s experience developing and administering the course and materials, this article provides an introduction and resources to teach a graduate journalism or professional law school course on access to government, commonly called freedom of information law , which may be constructed as a capstone course in law school. The appendices provide supporting material and references

A Theory of Bayesian Groups

A group is often construed as a single agent with its own probabilistic beliefs (credences), which are obtained by aggregating those of the individuals, for instance through averaging. In their celebrated contribution “Groupthink”, Russell et al. (2015) apply the Bayesian paradigm to groups by requiring group credences to undergo a Bayesian revision whenever new information is learnt, i.e., whenever the individual credences undergo a Bayesian revision based on this information. Bayesians should often strengthen this requirement by extending it to non-public or even private information (learnt by not all or just one individual), or to non-representable information (not corresponding to an event in the algebra on which credences are held). I propose a taxonomy of six kinds of `group Bayesianism', which differ in the type of information for which Bayesian revision of group credences is required: public representable information, private representable information, public non-representable information, and so on. Six corresponding theorems establish exactly how individual credences must (not) be aggregated such that the resulting group credences obey group Bayesianism of any given type, respectively. Aggregating individual credences through averaging is never permitted. One of the theorems – the one concerned with public representable information – is essentially Russell et al.'s central result (with minor corrections)