Forecasting substantial data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty

A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break and regime-switching models with and without heteroscedasticity. Ignoring the nonlinearities and model uncertainty yields misleading predictives and obscures recent improvements in the quality of preliminary UK macroeconomic measurements

Tanzania HIV/AIDS and Malaria Indicator Survey\ud 2007-08\ud

HIV/AIDS, Malaria, Tanzania, anti malaria, Treatmen

Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey 2003-04

The Tanzania Commission for AIDS (TACAIDS) authorised the National Bureau of Statistics\ud (NBS) to conduct the THIS. The THIS is the first household survey of its kind to be conducted in Tanzania.\ud The survey covered the Tanzania Mainland only.The main objective of the survey was to provide HIV/AIDS programme managers and policymakerswith information needed to guide planning and implementation of interventions, including resource mobilization and allocation, monitoring and evaluation of existing programmes, and designing new and effective strategies for combating the epidemic.\ud Before this survey, national HIV prevalence estimates depended entirely on data derived from\ud blood donors and pregnant women seeking antenatal care. Although this information from the surveillance system has been useful for monitoring the trends of HIV in Tanzania, the inclusion of HIV testingin the THIS offers the opportunity to better understand the magnitude and pattern of infection in the generalreproductive-age population in Tanzania. The THIS results are in turn expected to improve the calibrationof the annual sentinel surveillance data, so that trends in HIV infection can be more accurately\ud measured in the intervals between household surveys.\ud This report contains findings from the 2003-04 THIS collected from the households visited. The\ud survey was designed to produce regional estimates. The tables and text cover the most important indicatorsrelated to HIV/AIDS and should be of use to policymakers and programme administrators who needup-to-date data for evaluating their activities and planning future directions.\u

Sexual and reproductive health and HIV in border districts affected by migration and poverty in Tanzania

Objectives To assess HIV knowledge, attitudes, sexual practices and sexual and reproductive health ( SRH) service delivery in border areas of Tanzania, with a view to support the prioritisation of SRH interventions in border areas. Methods The target sample comprised randomly selected people living near the border, aged 15 to 49 years. To gather information, we utilised: (i) a standardised questionnaire (n = 86; 42 men and 44 women) previously used in national household surveys conducted by the Tanzanian government; (ii) focus group discussions (ten male groupsn = 47; ten female groups, n = 51); and (iii) semi- structured interviews with service providers (n = 37). Results The mean number of sexual partners, frequency of multiple concurrent partnerships and engagement in transactional sex were significantly higher in the border community than in the national population. Knowledge about HIV was comparable with that in the general population. Access to SRH services was limited in the border areas. Conclusion Efforts to reduce HIV transmission and to improve SRH in the border areas should focus on gaps in service delivery rather than education and information activities alone. In addition, multi-sectorial efforts spanning the health, social, legal and private sectors addressing gender imbalances and poverty alleviation are imperative for reducing poverty-driven unsafe transactional sex

How Equity-Oriented Health Care Affects Health: Key Mechanisms and Implications for Primary Health Care Practice and Policy

Policy Points A consensus regarding the need to orient health systems to address inequities is emerging, with much of this discussion targeting population health interventions and indicators. We know less about applying these approaches to primary health care. This study empirically demonstrates that providing more equity-oriented health care (EOHC) in primary health care, including trauma- and violence-informed, culturally safe, and contextually tailored care, predicts improved health outcomes across time for people living in marginalizing conditions. This is achieved by enhancing patients’ comfort and confidence in their care and their own confidence in preventing and managing health problems. This promising new evidence suggests that equity-oriented interventions at the point of care can begin to shift inequities in health outcomes for those with the greatest need. Context: Significant attention has been directed toward addressing health inequities at the population health and systems levels, yet little progress has been made in identifying approaches to reduce health inequities through clinical care, particularly in a primary health care context. Although the provision of equity-oriented health care (EOHC) is widely assumed to lead to improvements in patients’ health outcomes, little empirical evidence supports this claim. To remedy this, we tested whether more EOHC predicts more positive patient health outcomes and identified selected mediators of this relationship. Methods: Our analysis uses longitudinal data from 395 patients recruited from 4 primary health care clinics serving people living in marginalizing conditions. The participants completed 4 structured interviews composed of self-report measures and survey questions over a 2-year period. Using path analysis techniques, we tested a hypothesized model of the process through which patients’ perceptions of EOHC led to improvements in self-reported health outcomes (quality of life, chronic pain disability, and posttraumatic stress [PTSD] and depressive symptoms), including particular covariates of health outcomes (age, gender, financial strain, experiences of discrimination). Findings: Over a 24-month period, higher levels of EOHC predicted greater patient comfort and confidence in the health care patients received, leading to increased confidence to prevent and manage their health problems, which, in turn, improved health outcomes (depressive symptoms, PTSD symptoms, chronic pain, and quality of life). In addition, financial strain and experiences of discrimination had significant negative effects on all health outcomes. Conclusions: This study is among the first to demonstrate empirically that providing more EOHC predicts better patient health outcomes over time. At a policy level, this research supports investments in equity-focused organizational and provider-level processes in primary health care as a means of improving patients’ health, particularly for those living in marginalizing conditions. Whether these results are robust in different patient groups and across a broader range of health care contexts requires further study

Escaping the pushpin paradigm in geographic information science: (re)presenting national crime data

In 2011 the Home Office released the police.uk website, which provided a high-resolution map of recent crime data for the national extents of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Through this free service, crimes were represented as points plotted on top of a Google map, visible down to a street level of resolution. However, in order to maintain confidentiality and to comply with data disclosure legislation, individual-level crimes were aggregated into points that represented clusters of events that were located over a series of streets. However, with aggregation the representation of crimes as points becomes problematic, engendering spurious precision over where crimes occurred. Given obvious public sensitivity to such information, there are social imperatives for appropriate representation of crime data, and as such, in this paper we present a method of translating the ‘point’ crime events into a new representational form that is tied to street network geography; presenting these results in an alternate national crime mapping portal http://www.policestreets.co.u