ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELS: THE CASE OF LITHUANIAN COMPANIES

The aim of this research is to analyze the accuracy of selected bankruptcy prediction models on the example of Lithuanian companies. The research involves financial statements of 23 companies that have gone bankrupt over the period of 2013-2019. We used three different groups of models. The first two are considered as classic models which were developed using discriminant analysis (Altman, modified Altman, Springate, Taffler and Tishaw, and Grover models) and logistic regression (Ohlson, Zmijewski, and Grigaravičius models). The third group is based on artificial intelligence (we used a decision tree model, which is the most innovative and the least explored model of all used). The analysis evidenced that the logistic regression models, such as Zmijewski and Ohlson, demonstrated the best results in the group of classic prediction models, i.e., high probability of bankruptcy even earlier than one year prior to actual bankruptcy in the case of most companies. However, the decision tree must be considered as the most accurate model as it predicted bankruptcy of all analyzed companies one year before actual bankruptcy; this could be interpreted as 100% accuracy. Too late bankruptcy process causes many negative consequences for company’s employees, partners, and the state. Though problems with financial resources such as growing accounts payable and the shortfall of working capital which contribute to insolvency can be seen in the financial statements, in addition to the analysis of financial indicators, it is particularly important to use the above-mentioned bankruptcy prediction models, which help to detect financial problems in time and make the right decisions concerning future activities. Keywords: bankruptcy, bankruptcy prediction models, insolvency, Lithuanian companies. JEL Codes: G32, G33

Perception of Country of Brand Origin and Country of Product Manufacturing Among Lithuanians and Emigrants From Lithuania

Though the issue of product country of origin has been researched by numerous researchers, due to globalization, currently consumers have more problems perceiving the country of origin than ever before. This brings marketing specialists back to the discussion of the topic once again, with emphasis on a distinction between the country of manufacturing origin and the country of brand origin. The impact of country of manufacturing and country of brand image varies from country to country under the influence of numerous impact factors, often summarized within a culture or subcultures. One type of such subcultures could be formed by immigrants, whose perceptions might include aspects of their home country combined with those of the host country. The main purpose of this paper was to evaluate the attitudes of Lithuanians who live in Lithuania (as a country of an emerging economy) and those of emigrants living in selected countries (Ireland, the United Kingdom and Finland) with regard to the importance of country of origin. Three brands were selected for the research – Panasonic, LG and BEKO, and three different cases were presented to the respondents. First, both the brand name (Panasonic) and the manufacturing country (the United Kingdom) were associated with a developed country. In the second case, country of brand origin (LG) was identified as a developed country while country of manufacture represented an emerging economy (Poland). Finally, an emerging economy of the country of brand origin (BEKO) and an emerging economy of the country of manufacturing (Turkey) were dealt with.Findings provide evidence that, in general, more developed countries had a better image as countries – manufacturers of TV sets than less developed countries (emerging economies). Analysis of opinions about country of brand origin revealed that brands from developed countries were evaluated better than those from emerging economies. In addition, analysis showed that respondents who live in an emerging economy have more positive attitude towards the surveyed brands compared with Lithuanian emigrants to developed countries. Finally, strong correlation was found between the evaluation of a brand and evaluation of the country of brand origin, while there was no correlation between evaluation of a brand and evaluation of country of manufacturing

Impact of Public Announcements on Stock Prices: Relation between Values of Stock Prices and the Price Changes in Lithuanian Stock Market

AbstractThe previous studies have shown that there is a relation between values of stock prices and the price changes caused by public announcements. Thus the aim of this paper is to examine if the respective relation can be observed in Lithuanian stock market and how this relation is affected by different categories and types of announcements. The research covers public announcements issued by companies listed in Vilnius Stock Exchange. Simplified version of event study methodology was used in this paper and average absolute and abnormal returns were computed. Most of the results in this paper are consistent with the previous studies and a negative correlation between the values of stock prices and the price changes caused by public announcements was estimated

Innovative application of contemporary management methods in a knowledge-based economy – interdisciplinarity in science

Interdisciplinarity, which is a part of the research paradigm in all fields of science, constitutes a real challenge in research. It manifests itself particularly in the diversity of the undertaken research topics, in the variety of the adopted research approaches (theoretical, methodological, normative, empirical-descriptive), and in the flexibility and the ability to see both the scientific problems as well as the economic and social needs. The ability to cross the boundaries between the fields of technical and social sciences, to identify problems and to seek solutions at the frontiers of scientific disciplines, the eagerness to work in research teams diverse in terms of competence, age and skills, creating conditions for both the personal development and that of individual team members, breaking the stereotypical ways of thinking in the process of solving problems and anticipating future events are all features of an academic culture nurtured by Professor Joanicjusz Nazarko. The paper highlights the research of Professor Joanicjusz Nazarko, presents a review of his extensive scientific work and lists some of his publications

Digital communication channels in Industry 4.0 implementation: The role of internal communication

Industry 4.0 describes a phenomenon which augments business models and also communication channels in commercial enterprises. This paper analyses scientific publications related to the business model changes driven by Industry 4.0, and also digital internal communication channels used to reduce risks in the process. The paper is based upon a systematic review of scientific publications and evaluation by experts. The research revealed a gap between internal communication through digital channels and the change process in Industry 4.0-driven business models. Each channel has its mission and contributes to reducing risk during the change process. Since there is no universal digital channel for internal communication, different digital communication channels are efficient at different stages of change. The paper makes recommendations for enterprises, related to the effectiveness of digital communication channels during the business model transformation. It further contributes to existing knowledge by expanding the change process model and aligning the change process with features of digital communication channels. The research focused on the manufacturing sector, exploring digital communication channels used to reduce risk during the change process, which is a limitation of this study, along with assumption of a basic level of digital competences in the enterprise

PEDAGOGICAL STRATEGIES THAT IMPROVE CHILDREN’S PLAY-BASED LEARNING

This article focuses on the analysis of the issue of children and play-based learning. The theoretical position that play and learning are frequently integrated processes for a child and that there are methods of teacher-child interaction which make play-based learning more efficient, is followed. The pedagogical strategies that enable a child to learn through play without disrupting the authenticity of the play itself are theoretically substantiated: the strategy for promotion of children’s learning “en passant”, the strategy for initiation and promotion of joint attention, the strategy for promotion of children’s learning from peers, the strategy for promotion of communicative teacher-children encounters in play and the strategy for promotion of children’s reflection on play-based learning. On the basis of the qualitative research, the specific methods of practical implementation of each strategy have been described

Tautinė mažuma lauko perspektyvoje: Pierre‘o Bourdieu ir Rogerio Brubakerio idėjų sandūra

After the collapse of the Soviet bloc the regenerative specifics of the states was subject to a new outlook on nationalism of national minorities. Non-typical immigration process of the most national minorities in the regenerative countries does not enable from approaching them as typical groups of immigrants. In this article national minority is defined as a non-fixed, but changeable complex. Therefore, applying the method of theoretical analysis, there is an attempt to give a look to national minority as a dynamically changing field. The ideas of P.Bourdieu and R.Brubaker have been integrated trying to achieve this goal, which allowed forming national minority as a field of analytical model. Efforts were made to show that, due to this model, possibilities arise to single out more field actors than one homogenous group in the representation of national minority and present more flexible and universal analysis.Žlugus sovietinio režimo blokui, atsikuriančių valstybių specifika privertė iš naujo pažvelgti ir į tautinių mažumų nacionalizmą. Atsikūrusiose valstybėse daugelio tautinių mažumų netipinis imigracinis procesas neleidžia jų traktuoti kaip tipinių imigrantų grupių. Šio straipsnio tikslas yra pažvelgti į tautinę mažumą kaip į dinamiškai kintantį lauką, integruojant P.Bourdieu ir R.Brubakerio idėjas. Siekiama parodyti, kad, suformavus tautinės mažumos kaip lauko modelį, atsiranda galimybė tautinės mažumos atstovavime išskirti daugiau lauko veikėjų, o ne tik vieną homogenišką grupę, kartu pateikiant lankstesnę ir visapusiškesnę analizę

Ikimokyklinio amžiaus vaikų kūrybiškumo ugdymas tautodaile

The article reveals how the development of creativity of children from 4 to 6 years through folk art influences on the alternation of experience of folk art, on the enrichment of their world-view using accessible cultural values, over the rise of the sensual elements of national originality, over the maturing process of children for school. The article builds upon the theoretical and empirical researches of creativity development in preschool children through folk art, performed in 1996-2000. A model has been created in order to develop the creativity of children from 4 to 6 years through folk art, the essence of which has been comprised of the augmentation of general educational programmes by folk art, of the synthesis of purposefully selected subject of folk art accessible for children and modern technologies fostering creativity, of children engagement in the activities that broaden their experience of folk art: visual creation, communication and verbal creative expression, creative games, exploring cognition and activities that are close to folk art. The results of the research have shown the efficiency of the model to accumulate children's experience of folk art and to unfold their creativity. During one year of education their experience of folk art broadened almost twice. Children started showing interest in folk art mare actively, became more observant towards the pieces of artwork, particularly towards the decoration. They could recognize the Lithuanian folk artwork from its patterns, colour, shape, material, technique of accomplishment. Children’s pieces of art have become enriched by the ideas related to mythology, they have started reasoning unusually for children of that age. The experience of that kind has motivated the need of Beauty and Good, children’s creation being contiguous to folk art tradition, benefited the rise of sensational elements of national originality. Playfully and abundantly children have been using the elements of decoration absorbed from folk art and easily modified them and created their own elements. Such drawing has been giving to children a delight in creation and discovery process simultaneously preparing them for development of writing skills at school.Straipsnyje atskleidžiamas ketverių-šešerių metų vaikų kūrybiškumo ugdymo tautodaile poveikis tautodailinės patirties kaitai, turtinti jų pasaulėjautą prieinamomis kultūros vertybėmis, rastis tautinio savitumo pajautos pradmenims, brandinti vaikus mokyklai. Remiamasi 1996-2000 m. atliktais teoriniais ir empiriniais ikimokyklinio amžiaus vaikų kūrybiškumo ugdymo tautodaile tyrimais

The evaluation of bank performance using a multicriteria decision making model: a case study on Lithuanian commercial banks

The paper presents an attempt to adopt a muticriteria decision making approach, particularly the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, and to evaluate the performance of banks. The model is based on a system of various qualitative and quantitative criteria and their mutual relations. A system of indicators is created and described and each indicator is assigned a different degree of significance taking into account the needs and priorities of both internal and external evaluators. Model adaptation to Lithuanian market and an empirical test enabled to compare banks between each other, reveal their ranking and identify the banks taking leading positions in the market. The conducted research has concluded that the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model is appropriate for using it in the process valuating bank performance