An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models’ contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 5 project (Que´bec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in 10 Southern Que´bec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs’ members over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows

On the need for bias correction in regional climate scenarios to assess climate change impacts on river runoff

In climate change impact research, the assessment of future river runoff as well as the catchment scale water balance is impeded by different sources of modeling uncertainty. Some research has already been done in order to quantify the uncertainty of climate 5 projections originating from the climate models and the downscaling techniques as well as from the internal variability evaluated from climate model member ensembles. Yet, the use of hydrological models adds another layer of incertitude. Within the QBic3 project (Qu´ebec-Bavaria International Collaboration on Climate Change) the relative contributions to the overall uncertainty from the whole model chain (from global climate 10 models to water management models) are investigated using an ensemble of multiple climate and hydrological models. Although there are many options to downscale global climate projections to the regional scale, recent impact studies tend to use Regional Climate Models (RCMs). One reason for that is that the physical coherence between atmospheric and land-surface 15 variables is preserved. The coherence between temperature and precipitation is of particular interest in hydrology. However, the regional climate model outputs often are biased compared to the observed climatology of a given region. Therefore, biases in those outputs are often corrected to reproduce historic runoff conditions from hydrological models using them, even if those corrections alter the relationship between temperature and precipitation. So, as bias correction may affect the consistency between RCM output variables, the use of correction techniques and even the use of (biased) climate model data itself is sometimes disputed among scientists. For those reasons, the effect of bias correction on simulated runoff regimes and the relative change in selected runoff indicators is explored. If it affects the conclusion of climate change analysis in 25 hydrology, we should consider it as a source of uncertainty. If not, the application of bias correction methods is either unnecessary in hydro-climatic projections, or safe to use as it does not alter the change signal of river runoff. The results of the present paper highlight the analysis of daily runoff simulated with four different hydrological models in two natural-flow catchments, driven by different regional climate models for a reference and a future period. As expected, bias correction of climate model outputs is important for the reproduction of the runoff regime of the 5 past regardless of the hydrological model used. Then again, its impact on the relative change of flow indicators between reference and future period is weak for most indicators with the exception of the timing of the spring flood peak. Still, our results indicate that the impact of bias correction on runoff indicators increases with bias in the climate simulations

Adapting SAM for CDF

The CDF and D0 experiments probe the high-energy frontier and as they do so have accumulated hundreds of Terabytes of data on the way to petabytes of data over the next two years. The experiments have made a commitment to use the developing Grid based on the SAM system to handle these data. The D0 SAM has been extended for use in CDF as common patterns of design emerged to meet the similar requirements of these experiments. The process by which the merger was achieved is explained with particular emphasis on lessons learned concerning the database design patterns plus realization of the use cases.Comment: Talk from the 2003 Computing in High Energy and Nuclear Physics (CHEP03), La Jolla, Ca, USA, March 2003, 4 pages, pdf format, TUAT00

Heavy Flavours in Collider Experiments

Current issues in the studies of Heavy Flavours in colliders are described with particular emphasis on experiments in which the UK is involved. Results on charm production at HERA are examined and compared to those at the Tevatron. B production rates at the Tevatron as well as the status of B lifetimes and mixing in the LEP collaborations and at the Tevatron are highlighted. The measurement of sin2beta from CDF is described as well as the most recent results on top physics at the Tevatron

An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic<sup>3</sup> project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model

Search for Narrow Diphoton Resonances and for gamma-gamma+W/Z Signatures in p\bar p Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.8 TeV

We present results of searches for diphoton resonances produced both inclusively and also in association with a vector boson (W or Z) using 100 pb^{-1} of p\bar p collisions using the CDF detector. We set upper limits on the product of cross section times branching ratio for both p\bar p\to\gamma\gamma + X and p\bar p\to\gamma\gamma + W/Z. Comparing the inclusive production to the expectations from heavy sgoldstinos we derive limits on the supersymmetry-breaking scale sqrt{F} in the TeV range, depending on the sgoldstino mass and the choice of other parameters. Also, using a NLO prediction for the associated production of a Higgs boson with a W or Z boson, we set an upper limit on the branching ratio for H\to\gamma\gamma. Finally, we set a lower limit on the mass of a `bosophilic' Higgs boson (e.g. one which couples only to \gamma, W, and Z$ bosons with standard model couplings) of 82 GeV/c^2 at 95% confidence level.Comment: 30 pages, 11 figure

Inclusive Search for Anomalous Production of High-pT Like-Sign Lepton Pairs in Proton-Antiproton Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV

We report on a search for anomalous production of events with at least two charged, isolated, like-sign leptons with pT > 11 GeV/c using a 107 pb^-1 sample of 1.8 TeV ppbar collisions collected by the CDF detector. We define a signal region containing low background from Standard Model processes. To avoid bias, we fix the final cuts before examining the event yield in the signal region using control regions to test the Monte Carlo predictions. We observe no events in the signal region, consistent with an expectation of 0.63^(+0.84)_(-0.07) events. We present 95% confidence level limits on new physics processes in both a signature-based context as well as within a representative minimal supergravity (tanbeta = 3) model.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures. Minor textual changes, cosmetic improvements to figures and updated and expanded reference

Measurement of the Strong Coupling Constant from Inclusive Jet Production at the Tevatron pˉp\bar pp Collider

We report a measurement of the strong coupling constant, $\alpha_s(M_Z)$, extracted from inclusive jet production in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=$1800 GeV. The QCD prediction for the evolution of $\alpha_s$ with jet transverse energy $E_T$ is tested over the range 40<$E_T$<450 GeV using $E_T$ for the renormalization scale. The data show good agreement with QCD in the region below 250 GeV. In the text we discuss the data-theory comparison in the region from 250 to 450 GeV. The value of $\alpha_s$ at the mass of the $Z^0$ boson averaged over the range 40<$E_T$<250 GeV is found to be $\alpha_s(M_{Z})= 0.1178 \pm 0.0001{(\rm stat)}^{+0.0081}_{-0.0095}{\rm (exp. syst)}$. The associated theoretical uncertainties are mainly due to the choice of renormalization scale (^{+6%}_{-4%}) and input parton distribution functions (5%).Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, using RevTeX. Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Measurement of the ttˉproductioncrosssectionint\bar{t} production cross section in p\bar{p}collisionsat collisions at \sqrt{s}$ = 1.8 TeV

We update the measurement of the top production cross section using the CDF detector at the Fermilab Tevatron. This measurement uses $t\bar{t}$ decays to the final states $e+\nu$+jets and $\mu+\nu$+jets. We search for $b$ quarks from $t$ decays via secondary-vertex identification or the identification of semileptonic decays of the $b$ and cascade $c$ quarks. The background to the $t\bar{t}$ production is determined primarily through a Monte Carlo simulation. However, we calibrate the simulation and evaluate its uncertainty using several independent data samples. For a top mass of 175 $GeV/c^2$, we measure $\sigma_{t\bar{t}}=5.1 \pm 1.5$ pb and $\sigma_{t\bar{t}}=9.2 \pm 4.3$ pb using the secondary vertex and the lepton tagging algorithms, respectively. Finally, we combine these results with those from other $t\bar{t}$ decay channels and obtain $\sigma_{t\bar{t}} = 6.5^{+1.7}_{-1.4}$ pb.Comment: The manuscript consists of 130 pages, 35 figures and 42 tables in RevTex. The manuscript is submitted to Physical Review D. Fixed typo in author lis

Measurement of WγW\gamma and ZγZ\gamma Production in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

The Standard Model predictions for $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ production are tested using an integrated luminosity of 200 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collision data collected at the Collider Detector at Fermilab. The cross sections are measured selecting leptonic decays of the $W$ and $Z$ bosons, and photons with transverse energy $E_T>7$ GeV that are well separated from leptons. The production cross sections and kinematic distributions for the $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ are compared to SM predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR