Variations in visceral leishmaniasis burden, mortality and the pathway to care within Bihar, India

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target. METHODS: Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P < 0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances

Fluid-Damping-Controlled Instability of Tubes in Crossflow

A mathematical model for fluid damping controlled instability of tubes presented in this paper is based on the unsteady flow theory. Motion dependent fluid forces are measured in a water channel. From the measured fluid forces, fluid stiffness and fluid damping coefficients, are calculated as a function of reduced flow velocity, oscillation amplitude, and Reynolds number. Once these coefficients are known, the mathematical model can be applied to predict structural instability due to fluid damping. Many cases are considered: single tube, twin tubes, tube row, triangular array, and square arrays. The results show the instability regions based on the fluid damping coefficients and provide the answers to a series of questions on fluid elastic instability of tube arrays in crossflow

Identifying bottlenecks in the iron and folic acid supply chain in Bihar, India: a mixed-methods study

Background: Maternal anaemia prevalence in Bihar, India remains high despite government mandated iron supplementation targeting pregnant women. Inadequate supply has been identified as a potential barrier to iron and folic acid (IFA) receipt. Our study objective was to examine the government health system’s IFA supply and distribution system and identify bottlenecks contributing to insufficient IFA supply. Methods: Primary data collection was conducted in November 2011 and July 2012 across 8 districts in Bihar, India. A cross-sectional, observational, mixed methods approach was utilized. Auxiliary Nurse Midwives were surveyed on current IFA supply and practices. In-depth interviews (n = 59) were conducted with health workers at state, district, block, health sub-centre, and village levels. Results: Overall, 44% of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives were out of IFA stock. Stock levels and supply chain practices varied greatly across districts. Qualitative data revealed specific bottlenecks impacting IFA forecasting, procurement, storage, disposal, lack of personnel, and few training opportunities for key players in the supply chain. Conclusions: Inadequate IFA supply is a major constraint to the IFA supplementation program, the extent of which varies widely across districts. Improvements at all levels of infrastructure, practices, and effective monitoring will be critical to strengthen the IFA supply chain in Bihar

Cluster randomised trial and development of a sandfly sex pheromone lure to reduce Leishmania infantum infection

Introduction: Vector control tools are needed to combat leishmaniasis. A semi-synthetic version of a Lutzomyia longipalpis aggregation/sex pheromone (9-methlygermacrene-B) has been developed, and shown efficacy to attract sandflies in the lab and to chicken sheds in the field. Here, we present results from a cluster-randomised trial performed in Brazil where we test the efficacy of the pheromone deployed with insecticide, a novel lure-and-kill intervention, to reduce leishmaniasis transmission to the canine reservoir. Aim: Investigate the efficacy of sandfly sex pheromone baited + insecticide treated chicken roosts to reduce transmission of Leishmania infantum among the reservoir population (dogs). Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomised trial across 42 communities in Brazil. Pheromone lures plus insecticide were applied in 14 communities, and outcomes compared to that of 28 other communities that received either a placebo (sham lure + insecticide) or deltamethrin-impregnated collars fitted to dogs. We quantify the primary intervention effects by comparison of the number of uninfected dogs that seroconverted in each arm over the course of the 2-year trial. Results: A reduction in canine incidence is attributed to the pheromone + insecticide intervention, which is consistent across the levels of hierarchical analysis, though the errors are broad. The performance of the pheromone followed similar patterns as the collar arm which significantly reduced seroconversion incidence. Conclusion: These data represent the first trial of a synthetic vector pheromone applied in public health control, and the first cluster-randomised trial of dog collars in Brazil. Both methods show potential for the control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas; developments of the pheromone lure-and-kill strategy are underway

Web-based Investigation of Multistate Salmonellosis Outbreak

We investigated a large outbreak of Salmonella enterica serotype Javiana among attendees of the 2002 U.S. Transplant Games, including 1,500 organ transplant recipients. Web-based survey methods identified pre-diced tomatoes as the source of this outbreak, which highlights the utility of such investigative tools to cope with the changing epidemiology of foodborne diseases

Meson Production in p+d Reactions

The production of neutral and charged pions as well as eta mesons is studied in the Delta and N* resonance region, respectively. Heavy A=3 recoils were measured with the GEM detector. The differential cross sections covering the full angular range are compared with model calculations.Comment: 4 pages, latex, 4 figures, talk presented at the XVIIth European Conference on Few-Body Problems in Physics, Evora, Portugal, September 2000; to be published in Nucl. Phys.

Initial Virologic Response and HIV Drug Resistance Among HIV-Infected Individuals Initiating First-line Antiretroviral Therapy at 2 Clinics in Chennai and Mumbai, India

Human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (HIVDR) in cohorts of patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) at clinics in Chennai and Mumbai, India, was assessed following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Twelve months after ART initiation, 75% and 64.6% of participants at the Chennai and Mumbai clinics, respectively, achieved viral load suppression of <1000 copies/mL (HIVDR prevention). HIVDR at initiation of ART (P <.05) and 12-month CD4 cell counts <200 cells/μL (P <.05) were associated with HIVDR at 12 months. HIVDR prevention exceeded WHO guidelines (≥70%) at the Chennai clinic but was below the target in Mumbai due to high rates of loss to follow-up. Findings highlight the need for defaulter tracing and scale-up of routine viral load testing to identify patients failing first-line AR

Deconstructing the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender victim of sex trafficking: Harm, exceptionality and religion–sexuality tensions

Contrary to widespread belief, sex trafficking also targets lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender (LGBT) communities. Contemporary social and political constructions of victimhood lie at the heart of regulatory policies on sex trafficking. Led by the US Department of State, knowledge about LGBT victims of trafficking constitutes the newest frontier in the expansion of criminalization measures. These measures represent a crucial shift. From a burgeoning range of preemptive measures enacted to protect an amorphous class of ‘all potential victims’, now policies are heavily premised on the risk posed by traffickers to ‘victims of special interest’. These constructed identities, however, are at odds with established structures. Drawing on a range of literatures, the core task of this article is to confront some of the complexities and tensions surrounding constructions of LGBT trafficking victims. Specifically, the article argues that discourses of ‘exceptional vulnerability’ and the polarized notions of ‘innocence’ and ‘guilt’ inform hierarchies of victimhood. Based on these insights, the article argues for the need to move beyond monolithic understandings of victims, by reframing the politics of harm accordingly

A spatio-temporal approach to short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis diagnoses in India.

BACKGROUND: The elimination programme for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India has seen great progress, with total cases decreasing by over 80% since 2010 and many blocks now reporting zero cases from year to year. Prompt diagnosis and treatment is critical to continue progress and avoid epidemics in the increasingly susceptible population. Short-term forecasts could be used to highlight anomalies in incidence and support health service logistics. The model which best fits the data is not necessarily most useful for prediction, yet little empirical work has been done to investigate the balance between fit and predictive performance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed statistical models of monthly VL case counts at block level. By evaluating a set of randomly-generated models, we found that fit and one-month-ahead prediction were strongly correlated and that rolling updates to model parameters as data accrued were not crucial for accurate prediction. The final model incorporated auto-regression over four months, spatial correlation between neighbouring blocks, and seasonality. Ninety-four percent of 10-90% prediction intervals from this model captured the observed count during a 24-month test period. Comparison of one-, three- and four-month-ahead predictions from the final model fit demonstrated that a longer time horizon yielded only a small sacrifice in predictive power for the vast majority of blocks. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model developed is informed by routinely-collected surveillance data as it accumulates, and predictions are sufficiently accurate and precise to be useful. Such forecasts could, for example, be used to guide stock requirements for rapid diagnostic tests and drugs. More comprehensive data on factors thought to influence geographic variation in VL burden could be incorporated, and might better explain the heterogeneity between blocks and improve uniformity of predictive performance. Integration of the approach in the management of the VL programme would be an important step to ensuring continued successful control