Prediction of the Containment of HIV Infection by Antiretroviral Therapy - a Variable Structure Control Approach

It is demonstrated that the reachability paradigm from variable structure control theory is a suitable framework to monitor and predict the progression of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection following initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). A manifold is selected which characterises the infection-free steady-state. A model of HIV infection together with an associated reachability analysis is used to formulate a dynamical condition for the containment of HIV infection on the manifold. This condition is tested using data from two different HIV clinical trials which contain measurements of the CD4+ T cell count and HIV load in the peripheral blood collected from HIV infected individuals for the six month period following initiation of ART. The biological rates of the model are estimated using the multi-point identification method and data points collected in the initial period of the trial. Using the parameter estimates and the numerical solutions of the model, the predictions of the reachability analysis are shown to be consistent with the clinical diagnosis at the conclusion of the trial. The methodology captures the dynamical characteristics of eventual successful, failed and marginal outcomes. The findings evidence that the reachability analysis is an appropriate tool to monitor and develop personalised antiretroviral treatment

Dynamic network model of banking system stability

This paper presents a dynamic model of banking interactions, which uses interbank connections to study the stability of the banking system. The dynamic model extends previous work on network models of the banking system taking inspiration from large scale, complex, interconnected systems studied within the domain of engineering. The banking system is represented as a network where nodes are individual banks and the links between any two banks consist of interbank loans and borrowing. The dynamic structure of the model is represented as a set of differential equations, which, to the best of our knowledge, is an original characteristic of our approach. This dynamic structure not only allows us to analyse systemic risk but also to incorporate an analysis of control mechanisms. Uncertainty is introduced in the system by applying stochastic shocks to the bank deposits, which are assigned as an exogenous signal. The behaviour of the system can be analysed for different initial conditions and parameter sets. This paper shows some preliminary results under different combinations of bank reserve ratios, bank capital sizes and different degrees of bank inter-connectedness. The results show that both reserve ratio and link rate have a positive effect on the stability of the system in the presence of moderate shocks. However, for high values of the shocks, high reserve ratios may have a detrimental effect on the survival of banks. In future work, we will apply strategies from the domain of control engineering to the dynamic model to characterise more formally the stability of the banking network

Repeated epitaxial growth and transfer of arrays of patterned, vertically aligned, crystalline Si wires from a single Si(111) substrate

Multiple arrays of Si wires were sequentially grown and transferred into a flexible polymer film from a single Si(111) wafer. After growth from a patterned, oxide-coated substrate, the wires were embedded in a polymer and then mechanically separated from the substrate, preserving the array structure in the film. The wire stubs that remained were selectively etched from the Si(111) surface to regenerate the patterned substrate. Then the growth catalyst was electrodeposited into the holes in the patterned oxide. Cycling through this set of steps allowed regrowth and polymer film transfer of several wire arrays from a single Si wafer

Dynamic modelling and visco-elastic parameter identification of a fibre-reinforced soft fluidic elastomer manipulator

A dynamic model of a soft fibre-reinforced fluidic elastomer is presented and experimentally verified, which can be used for model-based controller design. Due to the inherent visco-(hyper)elastic characteristics and nonlinear timedependent behaviour of soft fluidic elastomer robots, analytic dynamic modelling is challenging. The fibre reinforced noninflatable soft fluidic elastomer robot used in this paper can produce both planar and spatial movements. Dynamic equations are developed for both cases. Parameters, related to the viscoelastic behaviour of the robot during elongation and bending motion, are identified experimentally and incorporated into our model. The modified dynamic model is then validated in experiments comparing the time responses of the physical robot with the corresponding outputs of the simulation model. The results validate the accuracy of the proposed dynamic model

River-Wide Habitat Availability for Fish Habitat Guilds: Implications for In-Stream Flow Protection

The variation in river discharge alters habitat heterogeneity with implications for the distribution of fish species with different habitat requirements. Assessments of habitat availability following changes in river discharge are difficult to apply at broad spatial scales and with relevance to multiple species. We used a MesoHABSIM modeling approach to quantify river-wide changes in habitat availability for five fish habitat guilds under three river discharge levels along the Niobrara River, NE, USA.We used a time-series of river discharge (1958–2010) to create uniform continuous under-threshold habitat duration curves that identified habitat conditions that may result in periods of stress for fish communities along the Niobrara River. Habitat availability for each fish habitat guild was dependent on river discharge and location along the river. Habitat availability for fish habitat guilds ranged from 5% to 49% of the total channel area suggesting habitat availability may, at times, be limited. We provide river discharge guidelines for bioperiods that limit the frequency and duration of stressful habitat conditions. Understanding interactions between river discharge and habitat availability through time and at river-wide scales may aid in managing for ecological integrity by including protection of river discharge variability to support multiple fish habitat guilds

Assessment of a channel catfish population in a large open river system

Estimates of dynamic rate functions for riverine channel catfish, Ictalurus punctatus (Rafinesque), populations are limited. The open nature and inherent difficulty in sampling riverine environments and the propensity for dispersal of channel catfish impede estimation of population variables. However, contemporary population models (i.e. robust design models) can incorporate the open nature of these systems. The purpose of this study was to determine channel catfish population abundance, survival and size structure and to characterize growth in the lower Platte River, Nebraska, USA. Annual survival estimates of adult channel catfish were 13%–49%, and channel catfish abundance estimates ranged from 8,281 to 24,261 fish within a 10-km sampling reach. Channel catfish were predominantly (90%