Climate change impacts on maritime mountain snowpack in the Oregon Cascades

This study investigates the effect of projected temperature increases on maritime mountain snowpack in the McKenzie River Basin (MRB; 3041 km(2)) in the Cascades Mountains of Oregon, USA. We simulated the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the MRB for the period of 1989-2009 with SnowModel, a spatially-distributed, process-based model (Liston and Elder, 2006b). Simulations were evaluated using point-based measurements of SWE, precipitation, and temperature that showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients of 0.83, 0.97, and 0.80, respectively. Spatial accuracy was shown to be 82% using snow cover extent from the Landsat Thematic Mapper. The validated model then evaluated the inter-and intra-year sensitivity of basin wide snowpack to projected temperature increases (2 degrees C) and variability in precipitation (+/- 10 %). Results show that a 2 degrees C increase in temperature would shift the average date of peak snowpack 12 days earlier and decrease basin-wide volumetric snow water storage by 56 %. Snowpack between the elevations of 1000 and 2000m is the most sensitive to increases in temperature. Upper elevations were also affected, but to a lesser degree. Temperature increases are the primary driver of diminished snowpack accumulation, however variability in precipitation produce discernible changes in the timing and volumetric storage of snowpack. The results of this study are regionally relevant as melt water from the MRB's snowpack provides critical water supply for agriculture, ecosystems, and municipalities throughout the region especially in summer when water demand is high. While this research focused on one watershed, it serves as a case study examining the effects of climate change on maritime snow, which comprises 10% of the Earth's seasonal snow cover.Keywords: Hydrology, Model, Energy balance, Pacific Northwest, United States, Snowmelt runoff, Cover, System, Western North America, water resource

When Models Interact with their Subjects: The Dynamics of Model Aware Systems

A scientific model need not be a passive and static descriptor of its subject. If the subject is affected by the model, the model must be updated to explain its affected subject. In this study, two models regarding the dynamics of model aware systems are presented. The first explores the behavior of "prediction seeking" (PSP) and "prediction avoiding" (PAP) populations under the influence of a model that describes them. The second explores the publishing behavior of a group of experimentalists coupled to a model by means of confirmation bias. It is found that model aware systems can exhibit convergent random or oscillatory behavior and display universal 1/f noise. A numerical simulation of the physical experimentalists is compared with actual publications of neutron life time and {\Lambda} mass measurements and is in good quantitative agreement.Comment: Accepted for publication in PLoS-ON

Assessing the seasonal evolution of snow depth spatial variability and scaling in complex mountain terrain

Dynamic natural processes govern snow distribution in mountainous environments throughout the world. Interactions between these different processes create spatially variable patterns of snow depth across a landscape. Variations in accumulation and redistribution occur at a variety of spatial scales, which are well established for moderate mountain terrain. However, spatial patterns of snow depth variability in steep, complex mountain terrain have not been fully explored due to insufficient spatial resolutions of snow depth measurement. Recent advances in uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) and structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry provide an opportunity to map spatially continuous snow depths at high resolutions in these environments. Using UASs and SfM photogrammetry, we produced 11 snow depth maps at a steep couloir site in the Bridger Range of Montana, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. We quantified the spatial scales of snow depth variability in this complex mountain terrain at a variety of resolutions over 2 orders of magnitude (0.02 to 20 m) and time steps (4 to 58 d) using variogram analysis in a high-performance computing environment. We found that spatial resolutions greater than 0.5 m do not capture the complete patterns of snow depth spatial variability within complex mountain terrain and that snow depths are autocorrelated within horizontal distances of 15 m at our study site. The results of this research have the potential to reduce uncertainty currently associated with snowpack and snow water resource analysis by documenting and quantifying snow depth variability and snowpack evolution on relatively inaccessible slopes in complex terrain at high spatial and temporal resolutions.</p

An Exploratory Study into the Factors Impeding Ethical Consumption

Although consumers are increasingly engaged with ethical factors when forming opinions about products and making purchase decisions, recent studies have highlighted significant differences between consumers’ intentions to consume ethically, and their actual purchase behaviour. This article contributes to an understanding of this “ethical purchasing gap” through a review of existing literature, and the inductive analysis of focus group discussions. A model is suggested which includes exogenous variables such as moral maturity and age which have been well covered in the literature, together with further impeding factors identified from the focus group discussions. For some consumers, inertia in purchasing behaviour was such that the decision-making process was devoid of ethical considerations. Several manifested their ethical views through post-purchase dissonance and retrospective feelings of guilt. Others displayed a reluctance to consume ethically due to personal constraints, a perceived negative impact on image or quality, or an outright negation of responsibility. Those who expressed a desire to consume ethically often seemed deterred by cynicism, which caused them to question the impact they, as an individual, could achieve. These findings enhance the understanding of ethical consumption decisions and provide a platform for future research in this area

Menthol-induced bleaching rapidly and effectively provides experimental aposymbiotic sea anemones (Aiptasia sp.) for symbiosis investigations

Experimental manipulation of the symbiosis between cnidarians and photosynthetic dinoflagellates (Symbiodinium spp.) is crucial to advancing the understanding of the cellular mechanisms involved in host-symbiont interactions, and overall coral reef ecology. The anemone Aiptasia sp. is a model for cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis, and notably it can be rendered aposymbiotic (i.e. dinoflagellate-free) and re-infected with a range of Symbiodinium types. Various methods exist for generating aposymbiotic hosts; however, they can be hugely time consuming and not wholly effective. Here, we optimise a method using menthol for production of aposymbiotic Aiptasia. The menthol treatment produced aposymbiotic hosts within just 4 weeks (97-100% symbiont loss), and the condition was maintained long after treatment when anemones were held under a standard light: dark cycle. The ability of Aiptasia to form a stable symbiosis appeared to be unaffected by menthol exposure, as demonstrated by successful re-establishment of the symbiosis when anemones were experimentally re-infected. Furthermore, there was no significant impact on photosynthetic or respiratory performance of re-infected anemones.Keywords: Coral reefs, Symbiodinium, Cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosisKeywords: Coral reefs, Symbiodinium, Cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosi

GRACE storage-runoff hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds

We characterize how regional watersheds function as simple, dynamic systems through a series of hysteresis loops using measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. These loops illustrate the temporal relationship between runoff and terrestrial water storage in three regional-scale watersheds (> 150 000 km²) of the Columbia River Basin, USA and Canada. The shape and size of the hysteresis loops are controlled by the climate, topography, and geology of the watershed. The direction of the hystereses for the GRACE signals moves in opposite directions from the isolated groundwater hystereses. The subsurface water (soil moisture and groundwater) hystereses more closely resemble the storage-runoff relationship of a soil matrix. While the physical processes underlying these hystereses are inherently complex, the vertical integration of terrestrial water in the GRACE signal encapsulates the processes that govern the non-linear function of regional-scale watersheds. We use this process-based understanding to test how GRACE data can be applied prognostically to predict seasonal runoff (mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.91) and monthly runoff during the low flow/high demand month of August (mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.77) in all three watersheds. The global nature of GRACE data allows this same methodology to be applied in other regional-scale studies, and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data and in trans-boundary watersheds.For a previous discussion paper please see: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/57160. This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://www.hydrology-and-earth-system-sciences.net/. The Supplement related to this article is available onlineat doi:10.5194/hess-19-3253-2015-supplement

GRACE storage-streamflow hystereses reveal the dynamics of regional watersheds

We characterize how regional watersheds function as simple, dynamic systems through a series of hysteresis loops. These loops illustrate the temporal relationship between runoff and terrestrial water storage using measurements from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites in three regional-scale watersheds (>150 000 km² ) of the Columbia River Basin, USA and Canada. The direction of the hystereses for the GRACE signal move in opposite directions from the isolated groundwater hystereses, suggesting that regional scale watersheds require soil water storage to reach a certain threshold before groundwater recharge and peak runoff occur. While the physical processes underlying these hystereses are inherently complex, the vertical integration of terrestrial water in the GRACE signal encapsulates the processes that govern the non-linear function of regional-scale watersheds. We use this process-based understanding to test how GRACE data can be applied prognostically to predict seasonal runoff (mean R² of 0.91) and monthly runoff (mean R² of 0.77) in all three watersheds. The global nature of GRACE data allows this same methodology to be applied in other regional-scale studies, and could be particularly useful in regions with minimal data and in trans-boundary watersheds.This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://hdl.handle.net/1957/5716

Allergen Uptake, Activation, and IL-23 Production by Pulmonary Myeloid DCs Drives Airway Hyperresponsiveness in Asthma-Susceptible Mice

Maladaptive, Th2-polarized inflammatory responses are integral to the pathogenesis of allergic asthma. As regulators of T cell activation, dendritic cells (DCs) are important mediators of allergic asthma, yet the precise signals which render endogenous DCs “pro-asthmatic”, and the extent to which these signals are regulated by the pulmonary environment and host genetics, remains unclear. Comparative phenotypic and functional analysis of pulmonary DC populations in mice susceptible (A/J), or resistant (C3H) to experimental asthma, revealed that susceptibility to airway hyperresponsiveness is associated with preferential myeloid DC (mDC) allergen uptake, and production of Th17-skewing cytokines (IL-6, IL-23), whereas resistance is associated with increased allergen uptake by plasmacytoid DCs. Surprisingly, adoptive transfer of syngeneic HDM-pulsed bone marrow derived mDCs (BMDCs) to the lungs of C3H mice markedly enhanced lung IL-17A production, and rendered them susceptible to allergen-driven airway hyperresponsiveness. Characterization of these BMDCs revealed levels of antigen uptake, and Th17 promoting cytokine production similar to that observed in pulmonary mDCs from susceptible A/J mice. Collectively these data demonstrate that the lung environment present in asthma-resistant mice promotes robust pDC allergen uptake, activation, and limits Th17-skewing cytokine production responsible for driving pathologic T cell responses central to the development of allergen-induced airway hyperresponsiveness

Consumption Style Among Young Adults Toward Their Shopping Behavior (An Empirical Study in Pakistan)

The purpose of this study was to substantiate the consumption styles of adolescents as customer. The study was executed in Karachi, Pakistan by applying consumption style inventory scale. The data covered of 1,048 respondents who are young and educated mostly students, which belong to the different universities in Karachi. The data was collected through structured and self administered questionnaire. To test objective Independent sample t test was used. The results show that young females are more shopping influenced, fashion conscious, recreational, and confused over-choice as compare to males whereas males are more reliance on media, perfectionist, brand conscious, and impulsive as compare to females for their consumption style toward shopping behavior. This research provides understanding about adolescents’ decision making style of consumers in Karachi which would enable organizations to make more appropriate strategies to cater youth consumers market

Catalyzing Transformations to Sustainability in the World's Mountains

Mountain social‐ecological systems (MtSES) are vital to humanity, providing ecosystem services to over half the planet's human population. Despite their importance, there has been no global assessment of threats to MtSES, even as they face unprecedented challenges to their sustainability. With survey data from 57 MtSES sites worldwide, we test a conceptual model of the types and scales of stressors and ecosystem services in MtSES and explore their distinct configurations according to their primary economic orientation and land use. We find that MtSES worldwide are experiencing both gradual and abrupt climatic, economic, and governance changes, with policies made by outsiders as the most ubiquitous challenge. Mountains that support primarily subsistence‐oriented livelihoods, especially agropastoral systems, deliver abundant services but are also most at risk. Moreover, transitions from subsistence‐ to market‐oriented economies are often accompanied by increased physical connectedness, reduced diversity of cross‐scale ecosystem services, lowered importance of local knowledge, and shifting vulnerabilities to threats. Addressing the complex challenges facing MtSES and catalyzing transformations to MtSES sustainability will require cross‐scale partnerships among researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers to jointly identify desired futures and adaptation pathways, assess trade‐offs in prioritizing ecosystem services, and share best practices for sustainability. These transdisciplinary approaches will allow local stakeholders, researchers, and practitioners to jointly address MtSES knowledge gaps while simultaneously focusing on critical issues of poverty and food security