Effect of N-arachidonoyl-l-serine on human cerebromicrovascular endothelium

AbstractN-arachidonoyl-l-serine (ARA-S) is an endogenous lipid, chemically related to the endocannabinoid, N-arachidonoyl ethanolamine (i.e., anandamide) and with similar physiologic and pathophysiologic functions. Reports indicate that ARA-S possesses vasoactive and neuroprotective properties resembling those of cannabinoids. However, in contrast to cannabinoids, ARA-S binds weakly to its known classical receptors, CB1 and CB2, and is therefore considered to be a ‘cannabinoid-like’ substance. The originally described ARA-S induced-endothelial-dependent vasorelaxation was not abrogated by CB1, CB2 receptor antagonists or TRPV1 competitive inhibitor. The present report demonstrates that ARA-S enhances the fluorescence staining of both cannabinoid receptors (CB1 and CB2) in human brain endothelial cells (HBEC). This reaction is specific since it was reduced by respective selective receptor antagonist (SR141716A and SR141728A). ARA-S alone or in the presence of ET-1 was shown to alter the cytoskeleton (actin). Both ARA-S stimulated phosphorylation of various kinases (MAPK, Akt, JNK and c-JUN) and alteration of cytoskeleton are mediated via CB1, CB2 and TRPV1 receptors. The findings also showed the involvement of Rho/Rock and PI3/Akt/NO pathways in the ARA-S-induced phosphorylation of kinases and actin reorganization in HBEC. All of the above mentioned ARA-S-induced effects were reduced by the treatment with LY294002 (inhibitor of PI3/Akt kinase), except MAPK kinase. In addition, MAPK, JNK, c-JUN phosphorylation were inhibited by H1152 (inhibitor of Rho/ROCK kinase), except Akt kinase. Furthermore, PI3/Akt pathway was inhibited by pretreatment with l-NAME (inhibitor of NOS). The findings suggest that ARA-S is a modulator of Rho kinase and may play a critical role in the regulation of its activity and subsequent effects on the cytoskeleton and its role in supporting essential cell functions like vasodilation, proliferation and movement

A phylogenomic analysis of Marek's disease virus reveals independent paths to virulence in Eurasia and North America

Virulence determines the impact a pathogen has on the fitness of its host, yet current understanding of the evolutionary origins and causes of virulence of many pathogens is surprisingly incomplete. Here, we explore the evolution of Marek's disease virus (MDV), a herpesvirus commonly afflicting chickens and rarely other avian species. The history of MDV in the 20th century represents an important case study in the evolution of virulence. The severity of MDV infection in chickens has been rising steadily since the adoption of intensive farming techniques and vaccination programs in the 1950s and 1970s, respectively. It has remained uncertain, however, which of these factors is causally more responsible for the observed increase in virulence of circulating viruses. We conducted a phylogenomic study to understand the evolution of MDV in the context of dramatic changes to poultry farming and disease control. Our analysis reveals evidence of geographical structuring of MDV strains, with reconstructions supporting the emergence of virulent viruses independently in North America and Eurasia. Of note, the emergence of virulent viruses appears to coincide approximately with the introduction of comprehensive vaccination on both continents. The time-dated phylogeny also indicated that MDV has a mean evolutionary rate of ~1.6 × 10−5 substitutions per site per year. An examination of gene-linked mutations did not identify a strong association between mutational variation and virulence phenotypes, indicating that MDV may evolve readily and rapidly under strong selective pressures and that multiple genotypic pathways may underlie virulence adaptation in MDV

Safety and effectiveness of RBD-specific polyclonal equine F(ab´)2 fragments for the treatment of hospitalized patients with severe Covid-19 disease: A retrospective cohort study

Background Passive immunotherapy has been evaluated as a therapeutic alternative for patients with COVID-19 disease. Equine polyclonal immunotherapy for COVID-19 (EPIC) showed adequate safety and potential efficacy in a clinical trial setting and obtained emergency use authorization in Argentina. We studied its utility in a real world setting with a larger population. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study at “Hospital de Campaña Escuela-Hogar" (HCEH) in Corrientes, Argentina, to assess safety and effectiveness of EPIC in hospitalized adults with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Primary endpoints were 28-days all-cause mortality and safety. Mortality and improvement in modified WHO clinical scale at 14 and 21 days were secondary endpoints. Potential confounder adjustment was made by logistic regression weighted by the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment (IPTW) and doubly robust approach. Findings Subsequent clinical records of 446 non-exposed (Controls) and 395 exposed (EPIC) patients admitted between November 2020 and April 2021 were analyzed. Median age was 58 years and 56.8% were males. Mortality at 28 days was 15.7% (EPIC) vs. 21.5% (Control). After IPTW adjustment the OR was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.46–0.96) P = 0.03. The effect was more evident in the subgroup who received two EPIC doses (complete treatment, n = 379), OR 0.58 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.85) P = 0.005. Overall and serious adverse events were not significantly different between groups. Conclusions In this retrospective cohort study, EPIC showed adequate safety and effectiveness in the treatment of hospitalized patients with severe SARS-CoV-2 disease.Fil: Farizano Salazar, Diego H.. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Achinelli, Fernando. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Colonna, Mariana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Pérez, Lucía. Hospital Italiano; ArgentinaFil: Giménez, Analía A.. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Ojeda, Maria Alejandra. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Miranda Puente, Susana N.. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Sánchez Negrette, Lía. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Cañete, Florencia. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Martelotte Ibarra, Ornela I.. Hospital de Campaña Escuela Hogar; ArgentinaFil: Sanguineti, Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Spatz, Linus. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Goldbaum, Fernando Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Massa, Carolina. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Rivas, Marta. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Pichel, Mariana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Hiriart, Yanina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Estudios Inmunológicos y Fisiopatológicos. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Instituto de Estudios Inmunológicos y Fisiopatológicos; ArgentinaFil: Zylberman, Vanesa. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Gallego, Sandra Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Virología Dr. J. M. Vanella; ArgentinaFil: Konigheim, Brenda Salome. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Medicina. Instituto de Virología Dr. J. M. Vanella; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, Francisco. No especifíca;Fil: Deprati, Matías. No especifíca;Fil: Roubicek, Ian. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Giunta, Diego Hernan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Hospital Italiano; ArgentinaFil: Nannini, Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Rosario. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario. Universidad Nacional de Rosario. Facultad de Ciencias Médicas. Instituto de Inmunología Clinica y Experimental de Rosario; ArgentinaFil: Lopardo, Gustavo. No especifíca;Fil: Belloso, Waldo Horacio. Hospital Italiano; Argentin

RBD-specific polyclonal F(ab´)2 fragments of equine antibodies in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 disease: A randomized, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, adaptive phase 2/3 clinical trial

Background: passive immunotherapy is a therapeutic alternative for patients with COVID-19. Equine polyclonal antibodies (EpAbs) could represent a source of scalable neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Methods: we conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to assess efficacy and safety of EpAbs (INM005) in hospitalized adult patients with moderate and severe COVID-19 pneumonia in 19 hospitals of Argentina. Primary endpoint was improvement in at least two categories in WHO ordinal clinical scale at day 28 or hospital discharge (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT04494984). Findings: between August 1st and October 26th, 2020, a total of 245 patients were enrolled. Enrolled patients were assigned to receive two blinded doses of INM005 (n = 118) or placebo (n = 123). Median age was 54 years old, 65 1% were male and 61% had moderate disease at baseline. Median time from symptoms onset to study treatment was 6 days (interquartile range 5 to 8). No statistically significant difference was noted between study groups on primary endpoint (risk difference [95% IC]: 5 28% [-3 95; 14 50]; p = 0 15). Rate of improvement in at least two categories was statistically significantly higher for INM005 at days 14 and 21 of follow-up. Time to improvement in two ordinal categories or hospital discharge was 14 2 (§ 0 7) days in the INM005 group and 16 3 (§ 0 7) days in the placebo group, hazard ratio 1 31 (95% CI 1 0 to 1 74). Subgroup analyses showed a beneficial effect of INM005 over severe patients and in those with negative baseline antibodies. Overall mortality was 6 9% the INM005 group and 11 4% in the placebo group (risk difference [95% IC]: 0 57 [0 24 to 1 37]). Adverse events of special interest were mild or moderate; no anaphylaxis was reported. Interpretation: Albeit not having reached the primary endpoint, we found clinical improvement of hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, particularly those with severe disease.Fil: Lopardo, Gustavo. Municipalidad de Vicente Lopez (buenos Aires). Hospital Municipal Doctor Bernardo Houssay.; ArgentinaFil: Belloso, Waldo H.. Hospital Italiano; ArgentinaFil: Nannini, Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Colonna, Mariana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Sanguineti, Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Zylberman, Vanesa. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Muñoz, Luciana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Dobarro, Martín. Sanatorio Sagrado Corazón; ArgentinaFil: Lebersztein, Gabriel. Sanatorio Sagrado Corazón; ArgentinaFil: Farina, Javier. Gobierno de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Alta Complejidad Cuenca Alta Doctor Nestor Carlos Kirchner.; ArgentinaFil: Vidiella, Gabriela. Sanatorio Agote. Dr. Luis Agote; ArgentinaFil: Bertetti, Anselmo. Sanatorio Guemes Sociedad Anonima.; ArgentinaFil: Crudo, Favio. Universidad Nacional de San Antonio de Areco; ArgentinaFil: Alzogaray, Maria Fernanda. Instituto Medico Platense.; ArgentinaFil: Barcelona, Laura. Municipalidad de Vicente Lopez (buenos Aires). Hospital Municipal Doctor Bernardo Houssay.; ArgentinaFil: Teijeiro, Ricardo. Gobierno de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Hospital General de Agudos Doctor Ignacio Pirovano; ArgentinaFil: Lambert, Sandra. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Ministerio de Salud. Hospital Alta Complejidad en Red El Cruce Dr. Néstor Carlos Kirchner Samic; ArgentinaFil: Scublinsky, Darío. Clinica Zabala.; ArgentinaFil: Iacono, Marisa. Provincia del Neuquen. Hospital Provincial Neuquen "dr. E. Castro Rendon"; ArgentinaFil: Stanek, Vanina. Hospital Italiano; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Rubén. Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires. Hospital de Infecciosas "Dr. Francisco Javier Muñiz"; ArgentinaFil: Cruz, Pablo. No especifíca;Fil: Casas, Marcelo Martín. Clinica Adventista Belgrano; ArgentinaFil: Abusamra, Lorena. Hospital Municipal Dr. Diego Thompson; ArgentinaFil: Luciardi, Héctor Lucas. Provincia de Tucuman. Ministerio de Salud. Sistema Provincial de Salud. Hosp. Centro de Salud "zenon Santillan"; ArgentinaFil: Cremona, Alberto. Hospital Italiano de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Caruso, Diego. Hospital Español; ArgentinaFil: de Miguel, Bernardo. No especifíca;Fil: Perez Lloret, Santiago. Pontificia Universidad Católica Argentina "Santa María de los Buenos Aires"; Argentina. Universidad Abierta Interamericana. Secretaría de Investigación. Centro de Altos Estudios En Ciencias Humanas y de la Salud - Sede Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Millán, Susana. No especifíca;Fil: Kilstein, Yael. No especifíca;Fil: Pereiro, Ana. Fundación Mundo Sano; ArgentinaFil: Sued, Omar. Fundación Huésped; ArgentinaFil: Cahn, Pedro. Fundación Huésped; ArgentinaFil: Spatz, Linus. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Goldbaum, Fernando Alberto. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de San Martin. Centro de Rediseño E Ingenieria de Proteinas.; Argentin

Circulating CD133+CD34+ progenitor cells inversely correlate with soluble ICAM-1 in early ischemic stroke patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background and Purpose</p> <p>Both endothelial progenitor cells (EPC) and markers of neuroinflammation are candidate biomarkers for stroke severity and outcome prediction. A relationship between EPC and neuroinflammatory markers in early stroke is not fully elucidated. The objectives were to investigate correlations between EPC and neuroinflammation markers (adhesion molecules ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-6, endothelin (ET)-1, markers of tissue injury (matrix metalloproteinases (MMP)-9 and tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1) in early stroke patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively recruited symptomatic patients with ischemic cerebrovascular disease. We assessed stroke severity by using of acute (diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and final lesion volumes (fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR). We measured serum soluble ICAM-1, VCAM-1, E-selectin, MMP-9, TIMP-1 and plasma TNF-α, IL-6, ET-1 by ELISA, and quantified EPC in mononuclear fraction of peripheral blood on days 1 and 3 in 17 patients (mean(SD) age 62(14), with admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) 10(8)) selected from 175 patients with imaging confirmed ischemic stroke. Non-parametric statistics, univariate and multivariate analysis were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Only ICAM-1 inversely correlated with EPC subset CD133+CD34+ on day 1 (Spearman r = -0.6, p < 0.01) and on day 3 (r = -0.967, p < 0.001). This correlation remained significant after adjustment for age and NIHSS (beta -0.992, p < 0.004), for glucose and systolic blood pressure (beta -0.86, p < 0.005), and for white blood cells and hematocrit (beta -1.057, p < 0.0001) on day 3. MMP-9 (r = 0.509, p < 0.04) and MMP-9/TIMP-1 (r = 0.59, p < 0.013) on day 1 correlated with acute lesion volume. Both IL-6 (r = 0.624, p < 0.01) and MMP-9/TIMP-1 (r = 0.56, p < 0.02) correlated with admission NIHSS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study showed that high ICAM-1 is associated with low CD133+CD34+subset of EPC. Biomarkers of neuroinflammation may predict tissue injury and stroke severity in early ischemia.</p

Environmental Constraints Guide Migration of Malaria Parasites during Transmission

Migrating cells are guided in complex environments mainly by chemotaxis or structural cues presented by the surrounding tissue. During transmission of malaria, parasite motility in the skin is important for Plasmodium sporozoites to reach the blood circulation. Here we show that sporozoite migration varies in different skin environments the parasite encounters at the arbitrary sites of the mosquito bite. In order to systematically examine how sporozoite migration depends on the structure of the environment, we studied it in micro-fabricated obstacle arrays. The trajectories observed in vivo and in vitro closely resemble each other suggesting that structural constraints can be sufficient to guide Plasmodium sporozoites in complex environments. Sporozoite speed in different environments is optimized for migration and correlates with persistence length and dispersal. However, this correlation breaks down in mutant sporozoites that show adhesion impairment due to the lack of TRAP-like protein (TLP) on their surfaces. This may explain their delay in infecting the host. The flexibility of sporozoite adaption to different environments and a favorable speed for optimal dispersal ensures efficient host switching during malaria transmission

Desarrollo de un suero equino hiperinmune para el tratamiento de COVID-19 en Argentina

La enfermedad denominada COVID-19 es causada por el coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 y es actualmente considerada una pandemia a nivel global. El desarrollo de vacunas es sin duda la mejor estrategia a largo plazo, pero debido a la emergencia sanitaria, existe una necesidad urgente de encontrar soluciones rápidas y efectivas para el tratamiento de la enfermedad. Hasta la fecha, el uso de plasma de convalecientes es la única inmunoterapia disponible para pacientes hospitalizados con COVID-19. El uso de anticuerpos policlonales equinos (EpAbs) es otra alternativa terapéutica interesante. La nueva generación de EpAbs incluyen el procesamiento y purificación de los mismos y la obtención de fragmentos F(ab’)2 con alta pureza y un excelente perfil de seguridad en humanos. Los EpAbs son fáciles de producir, lo cual permite el desarrollo rápido y la elaboración a gran escala de un producto terapéutico. En este trabajo mostramos el desarrollo de un suero terapéutico obtenido luego de la inmunización de caballos utilizando el receptor-binding domain de la glicoproteína Spike del virus. Nuestro producto mostró ser alrededor de 50 veces más potente en ensayos de seroneutralización in vitro que el promedio de los plasmas de convalecientes. Estos resultados nos permitirían testear la seguridad y eficacia de nuestro producto en ensayos clínicos de fase 2/3 a realizarse a partir de julio de 2020 en la zona metropolitana de Buenos Aires, Argentina.The disease named COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, is currently generating a global pandemic. Vaccine development is no doubt the best long-term immunological approach, but in the current epidemiologic and health emergency there is a need for rapid and effective solutions. Convalescent plasma is the only antibody-based therapy available for COVID-19 patients to date. Equine polyclonal antibodies (EpAbs) put forward a sound alternative. The new generation of processed and purified EpAbs containing highly purified F(ab’)2 fragments demonstrated to be safe and well tolerated. EpAbs are easy to manufacture allowing a fast development and scaling up for a treatment. Based on these ideas, we present a new therapeutic product obtained after immunization of horses with the receptor-binding domain of the viral Spike glycoprotein. Our product shows around 50 times more potency in in vitro seroneutralization assays than the average of convalescent plasma. This result may allow us to test the safety and efficacy of this product in a phase 2/3 clinical trial to be conducted in July 2020 in the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires, Argentina.Fil: Zylberman, Vanesa. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Sanguineti, Santiago. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Pontoriero, Andrea. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Higa, Sandra V.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Cerutti, Maria Laura. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Centro de Rediseño e Ingeniería de Proteínas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Morrone Seijo, Susana María. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Pardo, Romina Paola. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Muñoz, Luciana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Acuña Intieri, María Eugenia. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Centro de Rediseño e Ingeniería de Proteínas; ArgentinaFil: Alzogaray, Vanina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Avaro, Martín M.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Benedetti, Estefanía. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Berguer, Paula Mercedes. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Bocanera, Laura. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Bukata, Lucas. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Bustelo, Marina S.. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Campos, Ana M.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Colonna, Mariana. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Correa, Elisa. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Cragnaz, Lucí­a. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Dattero, María E.. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Dellafiore, María Andrea. mAbxience; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Foscaldi, Sabrina Andrea. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: González, Joaquí­n V.. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Guerra, Luciano Lucas. mAbxience; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Klinke, Sebastian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Labanda, María Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Lauché, Constanza Elena. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: López, Juan C.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Martínez, Anabela M.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Otero, Lisandro Horacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Peyric, Elías H.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Ponziani, Pablo F.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Ramondino, Romina. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Rinaldi, Jimena Julieta. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Rodrí­guez, Santiago. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Russo, Javier E.. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Russo, Mara Laura. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Saavedra, Soledad Lorena. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Seigelchifer, Mauricio. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Sosa, Santiago. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Vilariño, Claudio. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Centro de Rediseño e Ingeniería de Proteínas; ArgentinaFil: López Biscayart, Patricia. Instituto Biológico Argentino S.A.I.C.; ArgentinaFil: Corley, Esteban. mAbxience; ArgentinaFil: Spatz, Linus. Inmunova; ArgentinaFil: Baumeister, Elsa. Dirección Nacional de Instituto de Investigación. Administración Nacional de Laboratorio e Instituto de Salud "Dr. C. G. Malbrán"; ArgentinaFil: Goldbaum, Fernando Alberto. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Centro de Rediseño e Ingeniería de Proteínas; Argentina. Inmunova; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires. Fundación Instituto Leloir. Instituto de Investigaciones Bioquímicas de Buenos Aires; Argentin

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages