Distributional cost-effectiveness analysis of health care programmes

This paper presents a case study application of a new methodological framework for undertaking distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA) to combine the objectives of maximising health and minimising unfair variation in health when evaluating population health interventions. The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) introduced in 2006 is expected to improve population health on average but also to worsen population health inequalities associated with deprivation and ethnicity – a classic case of “intervention generated inequality”. We demonstrate the DCEA framework by examining two redesign options for the BCSP: (1) the introduction of an enhanced targeted reminder aimed at increasing screening uptake in deprived and ethnically diverse neighbourhoods and (2) the introduction of a basic universal reminder aimed at increasing screening uptake across the whole population. Our analysis indicates that the universal reminder is the strategy that maximises population health while the targeted reminder is the screening strategy that minimises unfair variation in health. The framework is used to demonstrate how these two objectives can be traded off against each other, and how alternative social value judgements influence the assessment of which strategy is best, including judgements about which dimensions of health variation are considered unfair and judgements about societal levels of inequality aversion

Cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer amongst postmenopausal women: a model-based economic evaluation

Background The United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) was the biggest ovarian cancer screening trial to date. A non-significant effect of screening on ovarian cancer was reported, but the authors noted a potential delayed effect of screening, and suggested the need for four years further follow-up. There are no UK-based cost-effectiveness analyses of ovarian cancer screening. Hence we assessed the lifetime outcomes associated with, and the cost-effectiveness of, screening for ovarian cancer in the UK, along with the value of further research. Methods We performed a model-based economic evaluation. Effectiveness data were taken from UKCTOCS, which considered strategies of multimodal screening (MMS), ultrasound screening (USS) and no screening. We conducted systematic reviews to identify the remaining model inputs, and performed a rigorous and transparent prospective evaluation of different methods for extrapolating the effect of screening on ovarian cancer mortality. We considered costs to the UK healthcare system and measured effectiveness using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). We used value of information methods to estimate the value of further research. Results Over a lifetime, MMS and USS were estimated to be both more expensive and more effective than no screening. USS was dominated by MMS, being both more expensive and less effective. Compared with no screening, MMS cost on average £419 more (95% confidence interval £255 to £578), and generated 0.047 more QALYs (0.002 to 0.088). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) comparing MMS with no screening was £8864 per QALY (£2600 to £51,576). Alternative extrapolation methods increased the ICER, with the highest value being £36,769 (£13,888 to dominated by no screening). Using the UKCTOCS trial horizon, both MMS and USS were dominated by no screening, as they produced fewer QALYs at a greater cost. The value of research into eliminating all uncertainty in long-term effectiveness was estimated to be worth up to £20 million, or approximately £5 million for four years follow-up. Conclusions Screening for ovarian cancer with MMS is both more effective and more expensive than not screening. Compared to national willingness to pay thresholds, lifetime cost-effectiveness is promising, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding extrapolated long-term effectiveness

mNCEA policy brief - Mind the Gap – The need to continue long-term plankton monitoring

This policy brief argues that while it is beneficial to explore novel plankton survey technology, it is essential that we also continue to maintain traditional long-term monitoring programmes to generate the necessary information to inform policy. Changes in plankton have important implications for the continued provision of ecosystem services, including supporting commercial fish stocks, carbon sequestration, and oxygen production. Such changes can only be detected by studying long-term, consistent plankton datasets which are needed to understand the pressures driving these changes and how we can manage them. Traditional long-term plankton monitoring relies on light microscopy to identify and count plankton taxa, with methods fully supported by national / international QA/QC standards and providing high quality trusted data. Novel technologies, including imaging and molecular methods, offer more efficient means of collecting some types of plankton data, filling targeted knowledge gaps left by traditional monitoring. However, these data are often semi-quantitative, lacking in QA/QC standards, and/or in taxonomic resolution. While these technologies are developed it remains critical to maintain the continuity of traditional plankton monitoring to inform policy assessments of important changes in biodiversity. Losing these time-series, many of which span multiple decades, would impair our ability to detect important change in pelagic habitats, as most changes cannot be detected from short-term data. This would also accelerate the loss of taxonomic expertise, already under threat globally, diminishing our UK skill-base. Novel technologies should be explored in parallel to traditional monitoring, as they can provide complementary data to support policy assessments and research, however, it is important that we do not attempt to replace traditional monitoring with new technology before it has been thoroughly integrated into long-term monitoring programmes. This project was funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) as part of the marine arm of the Natural Capital and Ecosystem Assessment (NCEA) programme. The marine NCEA programme is leading the way in supporting Government ambition to integrate natural capital approaches into decision making for the marine environment. Find out more at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/natural-capital-and-ecosystem-assessment-programme

Should colorectal cancer screening start at different ages for men and women? Cost‐effectiveness analysis for a resource‐constrained service

Abstract: Background: Men have a greater risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) than women, but population screening currently starts at the same age for both sexes. Aim: This analysis investigates whether, in a resource‐constrained setting, it would be more effective and cost‐effective for men and women to start screening for CRC at different ages. Methods and results: An economic modeling analysis was carried out using the Microsimulation Model in Cancer of the Bowel to compare sex‐stratification against screening everyone from the same age, taking an English National Health Service perspective. Screening men from age 56 and women from age 60, rather than screening everyone from age 58 using a Fecal Immunochemical Test (FIT) threshold of 120 μg/g is expected to produce an additional 0.0004 QALYs for a cost of £0.55 per person at model start (Incremental Cost‐effectiveness Ratio = £1392), and to reduce CRC cases and mortality by 25 and 19 per 100 000 people respectively, while using a similar amount of screening resources. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates a 61% probability that sex‐stratification is more cost‐effective than screening everyone at age 58. Similar benefits of sex‐stratification are found at other FIT thresholds, but become negligible if mean screening start age is reduced to 50. Conclusion: Where resources are constrained and it is not feasible to screen everyone from the age of 50, starting screening earlier in men than women is likely to be more cost‐effective and gain more health benefits overall than strategies where men and women start screening at the same age

Social behavior and impairments in social cognition following traumatic brain injury

Objectives: The negative effect of changes in social behavior following traumatic brain injury (TBI) are known, but much less is known about the neuropsychological impairments that may underlie and predict these changes. The current study investigated possible associations between post-injury behavior and neuropsychological competencies of emotion recognition, understanding intentions, and response selection, that have been proposed as important for social functioning. Methods: Forty participants with TBI and 32 matched healthy participants completed a battery of tests assessing the three functions of interest. In addition, self- A nd proxy reports of pre- A nd post-injury behavior, mood, and community integration were collected. Results: The TBI group performed significantly poorer than the comparison group on all tasks of emotion recognition, understanding intention, and on one task of response selection. Ratings of current behavior suggested significant changes in the TBI group relative to before the injury and showed significantly poorer community integration and interpersonal behavior than the comparison group. Of the three functions considered, emotion recognition was associated with both post-injury behavior and community integration and this association could not be fully explained by injury severity, time since injury, or education. Conclusions: The current study confirmed earlier findings of associations between emotion recognition and post-TBI behavior, providing partial evidence for models proposing emotion recognition as one of the pre-requisites for adequate social functioning

BMI and HbA1c are metabolic markers for pancreatic cancer: matched case-control study using a UK primary care database

Background Weight loss, hyperglycaemia and diabetes are known features of pancreatic cancer. We quantified the timing and the amount of changes in body mass index (BMI) and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and their association with pancreatic cancer from five years before diagnosis. Methods A matched case-control study was undertaken within 590 primary care practices in England, United Kingdom. 8,777 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (cases) between 1st January 2007 and 31st August 2020 were matched to 34,979 controls by age, gender and diabetes. Longitudinal trends in BMI and HbA1c were visualised. Odds ratios adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated with conditional logistic regression. Subgroup analyses were undertaken according to the diabetes status. Results Changes in BMI and HbA1c observed for cases on longitudinal plots started one and two years (respectively) before diagnosis. In the year before diagnosis, a 1 kg/m2 decrease in BMI between cases and controls was associated with aOR for pancreatic cancer of 1.05 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.06), and a 1 mmol/mol increase in HbA1c was associated with aOR of 1.06 (1.06 to 1.07). ORs remained statistically significant (p < 0.001) for 2 years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis for BMI and 3 years for HbA1c. Subgroup analysis revealed that the decrease in BMI was associated with a higher pancreatic cancer risk for people with diabetes than for people without (aORs 1.08, 1.06 to 1.09 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.05), but the increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for people without diabetes than for people with diabetes (aORs 1.09, 1.07 to 1.11 versus 1.04, 1.03 to 1.04). Conclusions The statistically significant changes in weight and glycaemic control started three years before pancreatic cancer diagnosis but varied according to the diabetes status. The information from this study could be used to detect pancreatic cancer earlier than is currently achieved. However, regular BMI and HbA1c measurements are required to facilitate future research and implementation in clinical practice

Distinct gut microbiomes in two polar bear subpopulations inhabiting different sea ice ecoregions

Gut microbiomes were analyzed by 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the southern Beaufort Sea (SB), where sea ice loss has led to increased use of land-based food resources by bears, and from East Greenland (EG), where persistent sea ice has allowed hunting of ice-associated prey nearly year-round. SB polar bears showed a higher number of total (940 vs. 742) and unique (387 vs. 189) amplicon sequence variants and higher inter-individual variation compared to EG polar bears. Gut microbiome composition differed significantly between the two subpopulations and among sex/age classes, likely driven by diet variation and ontogenetic shifts in the gut microbiome. Dietary tracer analysis using fatty acid signatures for SB polar bears showed that diet explained more intrapopulation variation in gut microbiome composition and diversity than other tested variables, i.e., sex/age class, body condition, and capture year. Substantial differences in the SB gut microbiome relative to EG polar bears, and associations between SB gut microbiome and diet, suggest that the shifting foraging habits of SB polar bears tied to sea ice loss may be altering their gut microbiome, with potential consequences for nutrition and physiology

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Implementation : Is Sufficient Evidence Available?

BACKGROUND: Timely implementation of recommended interventions can provide health benefits to patients and cost savings to the health service provider. Effective approaches to increase the implementation of guidance are needed. Since investment in activities that improve implementation competes for funding against other health generating interventions, it should be assessed in term of its costs and benefits. OBJECTIVE: In 2010, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence released a clinical guideline recommending natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in patients with suspected heart failure. However, its implementation in practice was variable across the National Health Service in England. This study demonstrates the use of multi-period analysis together with diffusion curves to estimate the value of investing in implementation activities to increase uptake of NP testing. METHODS: Diffusion curves were estimated based on historic data to produce predictions of future utilization. The value of an implementation activity (given its expected costs and effectiveness) was estimated. Both a static population and a multi-period analysis were undertaken. RESULTS: The value of implementation interventions encouraging the utilization of NP testing is shown to decrease over time as natural diffusion occurs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the value of the implementation activity depends on its efficacy and on the population size. CONCLUSIONS: Value of implementation can help inform policy decisions of how to invest in implementation activities even in situations in which data are sparse. Multi-period analysis is essential to accurately quantify the time profile of the value of implementation given the natural diffusion of the intervention and the incidence of the disease

Mild forms of hypophosphatasia mostly result from dominant negative effect of severe alleles or from compound heterozygosity for severe and moderate alleles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Mild hypophosphatasia (HPP) phenotype may result from <it>ALPL </it>gene mutations exhibiting residual alkaline phosphatase activity or from severe heterozygous mutations exhibiting a dominant negative effect. In order to determine the cause of our failure to detect a second mutation by sequencing in patients with mild HPP and carrying on a single heterozygous mutation, we tested the possible dominant effect of 35 mutations carried by these patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We tested the mutations by site-directed mutagenesis. We also genotyped 8 exonic and intronic <it>ALPL </it>gene polymorphisms in the patients and in a control group in order to detect the possible existence of a recurrent intronic mild mutation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that most of the tested mutations exhibit a dominant negative effect that may account for the mild HPP phenotype, and that for at least some of the patients, a second mutation in linkage disequilibrium with a particular haplotype could not be ruled out.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mild HPP results in part from compound heterozygosity for severe and moderate mutations, but also in a large part from heterozygous mutations with a dominant negative effect.</p