Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km<sup>2</sup>), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. <br><br> The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050–2059 from <i>CCSM3</i> model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change

Influência da imunidade passiva na vacinação de frangos contra a doença de Gumboro.

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The “Personal Health Budget” intervention model in early psychosis: Preliminary findings from the Parma experience

Objectives Personal Health Budget (PHB) has recently been provided to people with severe mental illness, reflecting a policy shift towards a personalized mental health care based on individual unmet needs. However, evidence on effectiveness of PHB initiatives is still limited. Aim of this research was to provide preliminary data about the beneficial effects of adding PHB to a multicomponent EIP intervention in patients with First-Episode Psychosis (FEP) along a 2-year follow-up period. Methods Participants (n = 49) were FEP patients, aged 18-50 years, entered the “Parma Early Psychosis” program and completing the Health of Nation Outcome Scale (HoNOS), the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). Friedman test for repeated measure (with Wilcoxon test as post-hoc procedure) was performed to evaluate the longitudinal stability of functioning and clinical parameters. A linear regression analysis was also carried out. Results A significant effect of time on all HoNOS, BPRS and GAF scores along the 2 years of follow-up was found. Regression analysis results specifically showed a relevant association between a PHB multiaxial intervention and the longitudinal decrease in BPRS “Negative Symptoms” subscores, as well as in HoNOS “Behavioral Problems” and “Social Problems” scores. Conclusions Our results support the general applicability of a PHB approach within an “Early Intervention in Psychosis” program for help-seeking adults with FEP

Blood lead level and dental caries in school-age children.

The association between blood lead level and dental caries was evaluated in cross-sectional analyses of baseline data for 543 children 6-10 years old screened for enrollment in the Children's Amalgam Trial, a study designed to assess potential health effects of mercury in silver fillings. Approximately half of the children were recruited from an urban setting (Boston/Cambridge, MA, USA) and approximately half from a rural setting (Farmington, ME, USA). Mean blood lead level was significantly greater among the urban subgroup, as was the mean number of carious tooth surfaces. Blood lead level was positively associated with number of caries among urban children, even with adjustment for demographic and maternal factors and child dental practices. This association was stronger in primary than in permanent dentition and stronger for occlusal, lingual, and buccal tooth surfaces than for mesial or distal surfaces. In general, blood lead was not associated with caries in the rural subgroup. The difference between the strength of the associations in the urban and rural settings might reflect the presence of residual confounding in the former setting, the presence of greater variability in the latter setting in terms of important caries risk factors (e.g., fluoride exposure), or greater exposure misclassification in the rural setting. These findings add to the evidence supporting a weak association between children's lead exposure and caries prevalence. A biologic mechanism for lead cariogenicity has not been identified, however. Our data are also consistent with residual confounding by factors associated with both elevated lead exposure and dental caries