Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors

Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two‐step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two‐step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/1/risa12728_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/2/risa12728.pd

Nitrogen transfer from forage legumes to nine neighbouring plants in a multi-species grassland

Legumes play a crucial role in nitrogen supply to grass-legume mixtures for ruminant fodder. To quantify N transfer from legumes to neighbouring plants in multi-species grasslands we established a grass-legume-herb mixture on a loamy-sandy site in Denmark. White clover (Trifolium repens L.), red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) were leaf-labelled with 15N enriched urea during one growing season. N transfer to grasses (Lolium perenne L. and xfestulolium), white clover, red clover, lucerne, birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus L.), chicory (Cichorium intybus L.), plantain (Plantago lanceolata L.), salad burnet (Sanguisorba minor L.)and caraway (Carum carvi L.) was assessed. Neighbouring plants contained greater amounts of N derived from white clover (4.8 gm-2) compared with red clover (2.2 gm-2) and lucerne (1.1 gm-2). Grasses having fibrous roots received greater amounts of N from legumes than dicotyledonous plants which generally have taproots. Slurry application mainly increased N transfer from legumes to grasses. During the growing season the three legumes transferred approximately 40 kg N ha-1 to neighbouring plants. Below-ground N transfer from legumes to neighbouring plants differed among nitrogen donors and nitrogen receivers and may depend on root characteristics and regrowth strategies of plant species in the multi-species grassland

Decline in the strength of genetic controls on aspen environmental responses from seasonal to century‐long phenomena

Understanding intra-specific variation in climate sensitivity could improve the prediction of tree responses to climate change. We attempted to identify the degree of genetic control of tree phenology and growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Mchx.) in a natural stand of this species in northwestern Quebec. We mapped and genotyped 556 aspen trees growing within the plot, using seven nuclear microsatellite loci for clone identification. We selected 13 clones (n of trees per clone >5, in total 350 trees) and evaluated the explanatory power of clone identity in (a) variability of spring leaf phenology and (b) short- and long-term growth responses. The clone's identity explained 43% of the variability in spring leaf phenology, between 18% and 20% of variability in response to monthly climate variables significantly affecting growth, between 8% and 26% of growth response to insect outbreaks, and 12% in the long-term growth rates. Strong clonal control of aspen phenology and moderate control of growth responses to monthly weather do not result in an equally large impact on long-term growth rates. The result suggests an important role of environmental extremes and within community interactions as factors averaging aspen growth performance at the stand level

US Fish and Wildlife Service 1979 wetland classification: A review

In 1979 the US Fish and Wildlife Service published and adopted a classification of wetlands and deepwater habitats of the United States. The system was designed for use in a national inventory of wetlands. It was intended to be ecologically based, to furnish the mapping units needed for the inventory, and to provide national consistency in terminology and definition. We review the performance of the classification after 13 years of use. The definition of wetland is based on national lists of hydric soils and plants that occur in wetlands. Our experience suggests that wetland classifications must facilitate mapping and inventory because these data gathering functions are essential to management and preservation of the wetland resource, but the definitions and taxa must have ecological basis. The most serious problem faced in construction of the classification was lack of data for many of the diverse wetland types. Review of the performance of the classification suggests that, for the most part, it was successful in accomplishing its objectives, but that problem areas should be corrected and modification could strengthen its utility. The classification, at least in concept, could be applied outside the United States. Experience gained in use of the classification can furnish guidance as to pitfalls to be avoided in the wetland classification process

Exploratory spatial data analysis for the identification of risk factors to birth defects

BACKGROUND: Birth defects, which are the major cause of infant mortality and a leading cause of disability, refer to "Any anomaly, functional or structural, that presents in infancy or later in life and is caused by events preceding birth, whether inherited, or acquired (ICBDMS)". However, the risk factors associated with heredity and/or environment are very difficult to filter out accurately. This study selected an area with the highest ratio of neural-tube birth defect (NTBD) occurrences worldwide to identify the scale of environmental risk factors for birth defects using exploratory spatial data analysis methods. METHODS: By birth defect registers based on hospital records and investigation in villages, the number of birth defects cases within a four-year period was acquired and classified by organ system. The neural-tube birth defect ratio was calculated according to the number of births planned for each village in the study area, as the family planning policy is strictly adhered to in China. The Bayesian modeling method was used to estimate the ratio in order to remove the dependence of variance caused by different populations in each village. A recently developed statistical spatial method for detecting hotspots, Getis's [Image: see text] [7], was used to detect the high-risk regions for neural-tube birth defects in the study area. RESULTS: After the Bayesian modeling method was used to calculate the ratio of neural-tube birth defects occurrences, Getis's [Image: see text] statistics method was used in different distance scales. Two typical clustering phenomena were present in the study area. One was related to socioeconomic activities, and the other was related to soil type distributions. CONCLUSION: The fact that there were two typical hotspot clustering phenomena provides evidence that the risk for neural-tube birth defect exists on two different scales (a socioeconomic scale at 6.84 km and a soil type scale at 22.8 km) for the area studied. Although our study has limited spatial exploratory data for the analysis of the neural-tube birth defect occurrence ratio and for finding clues to risk factors, this result provides effective clues for further physical, chemical and even more molecular laboratory testing according to these two spatial scales

Modeling Historic Rangeland Management and Grazing Pressures in Landscapes of Settlement

Defining historic grazing pressures and rangeland management is vital if early landscape threshold crossing and long–term trajectories of landscape change are to be properly understood. In this paper we use a new environmental simulation model, Búmodel, to assess two contrasting historical grazing landscapes in Mývatnssveit Iceland for two key periods—the colonization period (ca. Landnám, A.D. 872–1000) and the early eighteenth century A.D. Results suggest that there were spatial and temporal variations in productivity and grazing pressure within and between historic grazing areas and indicate that land degradation was not an inevitable consequence of the livestock grazing introduced with settlement. The results also demonstrate the significance of grazing and livestock management strategies in preventing overgrazing, particularly under cooler climatic conditions. The model enables detailed consideration of historic grazing management scenarios and their associated landscape pressures

Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of the Marsworth area, south-central England

To elucidate the Middle and Late Pleistocene environmental history of south-central England, we report the stratigraphy, sedimentology, palaeoecology and geochronology of some deposits near the foot of the Chiltern Hills scarp at Marsworth, Buckinghamshire. The Marsworth site is important because its sedimentary sequences contain a rich record of warm stages and cold stages, and it lies close to the Anglian glacial limit. Critical to its history are the origin and age of a brown pebbly silty clay (diamicton) previously interpreted as weathered till. The deposits described infill a river channel incised into chalk bedrock. They comprise clayey, silty and gravelly sediments, many containing locally derived chalk and some with molluscan, ostracod and vertebrate remains. Most of the deposits are readily attributed to periglacial and fluvial processes, and some are dated by optically stimulated luminescence to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Although our sedimentological data do not discriminate between a glacial or periglacial interpretation of the diamicton, amino-acid dating of three molluscan taxa from beneath it indicates that it is younger than MIS 9 and older than MIS 5e. This makes a glacial interpretation unlikely, and we interpret the diamicton as a periglacial slope deposit. The Pleistocene history reconstructed for Marsworth identifies four key elements: (1) Anglian glaciation during MIS 12 closely approached Marsworth, introducing far-travelled pebbles such as Rhaxella chert and possibly some fine sand minerals into the area. (2) Interglacial environments inferred from fluvial sediments during MIS 7 varied from fully interglacial conditions during sub-stages 7e and 7c, cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7b or 7a, temperate conditions similar to those today in central England towards the end of the interglacial, and cool temperate conditions during sub-stage 7a. (3) Periglacial activity during MIS 6 involved thermal contraction cracking, permafrost development, fracturing of chalk bedrock, fluvial activity, slopewash, mass movement and deposition of loess and coversand. (4) Fully interglacial conditions during sub-stage 5e led to renewed fluvial activity, soil formation and acidic weathering