Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy

Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors

Why Swedes Don’t Wear Face Masks During the Pandemic – A Consequence of Blindly Trusting the Government

Government trust is generally helpful for societies, especially in crisis situations, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, because governments rely on citizens to follow directives. Worldwide, with supporting evidence accumulating, a key directive has been to wear face masks. However, in Sweden, the government has questioned their usefulness. On other behavioral recommendations, such as handwashing, the government has taken a conventional path. We rely on this non-recommendation of face masks to examine the causal impact of government trust on behavior. Based on a large Swedish survey fielded during the pandemic, we find that higher government trust reduces the likelihood of wearing face masks. In contrast, higher trust increases the likelihood of handwashing. The findings qualify the conclusion about the beneficial consequences of trust

The Effect of Elite Polarization: A Comparative Perspective on How Party Elites Influence Attitudes and Behavior on Climate Change in the European Union

There is considerable variability in attitudes towards climate change between citizens of different countries. By using individual-level and country-level data, I examine if this variability in public opinion is partially caused by political party elites. The results show that when elites are united in their support for environmental issues, the perceived threat of climate change is higher than in countries where party elites are divided. The results also demonstrate that the perceived threat influences behavior related to climate change, and that threat mediates the effect of party positions. Consequently, the effect of party elites is stronger than previously acknowledged. The models rely on Generalized Method of Moments estimation and instrumental variables with clustering on EU member-states

The electoral choices of voters with coalition-straddling consideration sets

Objectives Preelectoral party coalitions are common in multiparty systems. We examine the proposition that individuals who choose between parties from competing coalitions think and behave differently compared to those who only consider voting for parties of the same coalition. Part of the reason, we suggest, is that coalition‐straddling voters play a key role in deciding who forms government. Methods We rely on data from a multiwave panel with thousands of participants collected during two election campaigns in Sweden. Statistical regression techniques are used to analyze the data. Results We find that citizens who straddle opposing coalitions think that the vote decision is harder and rely more on voting advice applications. Moreover, the evidence suggests that their ultimate vote choice is more consequential in how they view parties. Conclusion Coalition‐straddling influences political behavior. The evidence is largely in line with the notion that coalition‐straddling individuals are aware of their importance

Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy

Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors

Chapter 13. Institutional trust and crisis management in high-trust societies : Rallies around the Nordic flags during the Covid-19 pandemic

The so-called rally-around-the-flag effect, more succinctly known as the rally effect, has been prominently discussed in both academic and public discourse during the Covid-19 pandemic. The rally effect entails spikes in support for and trust in political leaders, governments, and state agencies during a crisis. This chapter assesses the validity of this theory in the Nordics during the early phases of the Covid-19 pandemic. By studying people’s support for the government, institutional trust, and belief in the government’s strategy, we identify a wide range of evident rally effects that occurred toward the beginning of the first wave of Covid-19, creating opportunities for successful instances of crisis communication. Overall, our results show similar basic patterns in the relationship between the citizens and the state across the Nordic countries, despite the different pandemic strategies adopted among them

Determinants of polling accuracy: the effect of opt-in Internet surveys

<p>With the changing polling environment and the difficulties in correctly measuring public opinion, it is crucial to study the effects of polling practices. Elections provide an opportunity to examine how well polls measure support for political parties and how polling practices influence the accuracy of polls. Based on 110 pre-election polls conducted in Sweden, a multiparty system, we find that probability-based samples yield more accurate polls compared to opt-in Internet samples. Thus, our results point to a tradeoff between inexpensive online polls and accuracy.</p