Simulations of the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period Using Two Versions of the NASA-GISS ModelE2-R Coupled Model

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) bears many similarities to aspects of future global warming as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007). Both marine and terrestrial data point to high-latitude temperature amplification, including large decreases in sea ice and land ice, as well as expansion of warmer climate biomes into higher latitudes. Here we present our most recent simulations of the mid-Pliocene climate using the CMIP5 version of the NASAGISS Earth System Model (ModelE2-R). We describe the substantial impact associated with a recent correction made in the implementation of the Gent-McWilliams ocean mixing scheme (GM), which has a large effect on the simulation of ocean surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effect of this correction on the Pliocene climate results would not have been easily determined from examining its impact on the preindustrial runs alone, a useful demonstration of how the consequences of code improvements as seen in modern climate control runs do not necessarily portend the impacts in extreme climates.Both the GM-corrected and GM-uncorrected simulations were contributed to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Experiment 2. Many findings presented here corroborate results from other PlioMIP multi-model ensemble papers, but we also emphasize features in the ModelE2-R simulations that are unlike the ensemble means. The corrected version yields results that more closely resemble the ocean core data as well as the PRISM3D reconstructions of the mid-Pliocene, especially the dramatic warming in the North Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea, which in the new simulation appears to be far more realistic than previously found with older versions of the GISS model. Our belief is that continued development of key physical routines in the atmospheric model, along with higher resolution and recent corrections to mixing parameterisations in the ocean model, have led to an Earth System Model that will produce more accurate projections of future climate

Intelligent Financial Fraud Detection Practices: An Investigation

Financial fraud is an issue with far reaching consequences in the finance industry, government, corporate sectors, and for ordinary consumers. Increasing dependence on new technologies such as cloud and mobile computing in recent years has compounded the problem. Traditional methods of detection involve extensive use of auditing, where a trained individual manually observes reports or transactions in an attempt to discover fraudulent behaviour. This method is not only time consuming, expensive and inaccurate, but in the age of big data it is also impractical. Not surprisingly, financial institutions have turned to automated processes using statistical and computational methods. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation on financial fraud detection practices using such data mining methods, with a particular focus on computational intelligence-based techniques. Classification of the practices based on key aspects such as detection algorithm used, fraud type investigated, and success rate have been covered. Issues and challenges associated with the current practices and potential future direction of research have also been identified.Comment: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Security and Privacy in Communication Networks (SecureComm 2014

U.S. stock market interaction network as learned by the Boltzmann Machine

We study historical dynamics of joint equilibrium distribution of stock returns in the U.S. stock market using the Boltzmann distribution model being parametrized by external fields and pairwise couplings. Within Boltzmann learning framework for statistical inference, we analyze historical behavior of the parameters inferred using exact and approximate learning algorithms. Since the model and inference methods require use of binary variables, effect of this mapping of continuous returns to the discrete domain is studied. The presented analysis shows that binarization preserves market correlation structure. Properties of distributions of external fields and couplings as well as industry sector clustering structure are studied for different historical dates and moving window sizes. We found that a heavy positive tail in the distribution of couplings is responsible for the sparse market clustering structure. We also show that discrepancies between the model parameters might be used as a precursor of financial instabilities.Comment: 15 pages, 17 figures, 1 tabl

Land Cover Trends Dataset, 1973–2000

The U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends Project is releasing a 1973–2000 time-series land-use/land-cover dataset for the conterminous United States. The dataset contains 5 dates of land-use/land-cover data for 2,688 sample blocks randomly selected within 84 ecological regions. The nominal dates of the land-use/land-cover maps are 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000. The land-use/land-cover maps were classified manually from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery using a modified Anderson Level I classification scheme. The resulting land-use/land-cover data has a 60-meter resolution and the projection is set to Albers Equal-Area Conic, North American Datum of 1983. The files are labeled using a standard file naming convention that contains the number of the ecoregion, sample block, and Landsat year. The downloadable files are organized by ecoregion, and are available in the ERDAS IMAGINETM (.img) raster file format

Modeling magnetospheric fields in the Jupiter system

The various processes which generate magnetic fields within the Jupiter system are exemplary for a large class of similar processes occurring at other planets in the solar system, but also around extrasolar planets. Jupiter's large internal dynamo magnetic field generates a gigantic magnetosphere, which is strongly rotational driven and possesses large plasma sources located deeply within the magnetosphere. The combination of the latter two effects is the primary reason for Jupiter's main auroral ovals. Jupiter's moon Ganymede is the only known moon with an intrinsic dynamo magnetic field, which generates a mini-magnetosphere located within Jupiter's larger magnetosphere including two auroral ovals. Ganymede's magnetosphere is qualitatively different compared to the one from Jupiter. It possesses no bow shock but develops Alfv\'en wings similar to most of the extrasolar planets which orbit their host stars within 0.1 AU. New numerical models of Jupiter's and Ganymede's magnetospheres presented here provide quantitative insight into the processes that maintain these magnetospheres. Jupiter's magnetospheric field is approximately time-periodic at the locations of Jupiter's moons and induces secondary magnetic fields in electrically conductive layers such as subsurface oceans. In the case of Ganymede, these secondary magnetic fields influence the oscillation of the location of its auroral ovals. Based on dedicated Hubble Space Telescope observations, an analysis of the amplitudes of the auroral oscillations provides evidence that Ganymede harbors a subsurface ocean. Callisto in contrast does not possess a mini-magnetosphere, but still shows a perturbed magnetic field environment. Callisto's ionosphere and atmospheric UV emission is different compared to the other Galilean satellites as it is primarily been generated by solar photons compared to magnetospheric electrons.Comment: Chapter for Book: Planetary Magnetis

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic

The transformation of the business angel market: empirical evidence and research implications

Business angel investing – a key source of finance for entrepreneurial businesses – is rapidly evolving from a fragmented and largely anonymous activity dominated by individuals investing on their own to one that is increasingly characterised by groups of investors investing together through managed angel groups. The implications of this change have been largely ignored by scholars. The paper examines the investment activity and operation of angel groups in Scotland to highlight the implications of this change for the nature of angel investing. It goes on to argue that this transformation challenges both the ongoing relevance of prior research on business angels and current methodological practices, and raises a set of new research questions

Precise timing and recent advancements with segmented anode PICOSEC Micromegas prototypes

Timing information in current and future accelerator facilities is important for resolving objects (particle tracks, showers, etc.) in extreme large particles multiplicities on the detection systems. The PICOSEC Micromegas detector has demonstrated the ability to time 150\,GeV muons with a sub-25\,ps precision. Driven by detailed simulation studies and a phenomenological model which describes stochastically the dynamics of the signal formation, new PICOSEC designs were developed that significantly improve the timing performance of the detector. PICOSEC prototypes with reduced drift gap size ($\sim$\SI{119}{\micro\metre}) achieved a resolution of 45\,ps in timing single photons in laser beam tests (in comparison to 76\,ps of the standard PICOSEC detector). Towards large area detectors, multi-pad PICOSEC prototypes with segmented anodes has been developed and studied. Extensive tests in particle beams revealed that the multi-pad PICOSEC technology provides also very precise timing, even when the induced signal is shared among several neighbouring pads. Furthermore, new signal processing algorithms have been developed, which can be applied during data acquisition and provide real time, precise timing.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 12th International Conference on Position Sensitive Detector

Timing performance of a Micro-Channel-Plate Photomultiplier Tube

The spatial dependence of the timing performance of the R3809U-50 Micro-Channel-Plate PMT (MCP-PMT) by Hamamatsu was studied in high energy muon beams. Particle position information is provided by a GEM tracker telescope, while timing is measured relative to a second MCP-PMT, identical in construction. In the inner part of the circular active area (radius r5.5 mm) the time resolution of the two MCP-PMTs combined is better than 10 ps. The signal amplitude decreases in the outer region due to less light reaching the photocathode, resulting in a worse time resolution. The observed radial dependence is in quantitative agreement with a dedicated simulation. With this characterization, the suitability of MCP-PMTs as t0 reference detectors has been validated.Peer reviewe