The Coastal Convective Interactions Experiment (CCIE): understanding the role of sea breezes for hailstorm hotspots in Eastern Australia

The coastal convective interactions experiment (CCIE's) integration of climatological analysis with an intensive field campaign has provided an opportunity for revealing some of the complexities surrounding thunderstorm hotpots in complex physical settings like SEQ. For the CCIE climatological analysis, a continuous 18-yr (July 1997 to June 2015) volumetric reflectivity radar dataset was sourced from the 1.9° S-band weather radar located at Marburg, 50 km west of Brisbane. A cell-based analysis of this archive was performed using a MATLAB implementation of the identification, tracking, and selected analysis algorithms from the Weather Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II). The 10-min interval of the Marburg radar volumes creates significant spatial discontinuities between MESH grids from an individual thunderstorm. A preliminary analysis indicates a strong relationship between the presence of the sea breeze and the Boonah hailstorm hotspot, but further analysis is needed to isolate the additional influence of synoptic and topographic drivers. Furthermore, fine-scale field observations of the sea-breeze?thunderstorm interaction events have begun to shed some light on the meteorology of thunderstorm hotspots in South East Queensland (SEQ)

Quantifying hail size distributions from the sky - Application of drone aerial photogrammetry

A new technique, named "HailPixel", is introduced for measuring the maximum dimension and intermediate dimension of hailstones from aerial imagery. The photogrammetry procedure applies a convolutional neural network for robust detection of hailstones against complex backgrounds and an edge detection method for measuring the shape of identified hailstones. This semi-automated technique is capable of measuring many thousands of hailstones within a single survey, which is several orders of magnitude larger (e.g. 10 000 or more hailstones) than population sizes from existing sensors (e.g. a hail pad). Comparison with a co-located hail pad for an Argentinian hailstorm event during the RELAMPAGO project demonstrates the larger population size of the HailPixel survey significantly improves the shape and tails of the observed hail size distribution. When hail fall is sparse, such as during large and giant hail events, the large survey area of this technique is especially advantageous for resolving the hail size distribution.Fil: Soderholm, Joshua S.. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Kumjian, Matthew R.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: McCarthy, Nicholas. University of Queensland; AustraliaFil: Maldonado, Paula Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Wang, Minzheng. Northraine Pty. Ltd.; Australi

A Radar-Based Hail Climatology of Australia

In Australia, hailstorms present considerable public safety and economic risks, where they are considered the most damaging natural hazard in terms of annual insured losses. Despite these impacts, the current climatological distribution of hailfall across the continent is still comparatively poorly understood. This study aims to supplement previous national hail climatologies, such as those based on environmental proxies or satellite radiometer data, with more direct radar-based hail observations. The heterogeneous and incomplete nature of the Australian radar network complicates this task and prompts the introduction of some novel methodological elements. We introduce an empirical correction technique to account for hail reflectivity biases at C-band, derived by comparing overlapping C- and S-band observations. Furthermore, we demonstrate how object-based hail swath analysis may be used to produce resolution-invariant hail frequencies, and describe an interpolation method used to create a spatially continuous hail climatology. The Maximum Estimated Size of Hail (MESH) parameter is then applied to a mixture of over fifty operational radars in the Australian radar archive, resulting in the first nationwide, radar-based hail climatology. The spatiotemporal distribution of hailstorms is examined, including their physical characteristics, seasonal and diurnal frequency, and regional variations of such properties across the continent.Comment: Revision 1 of manuscript submitted to Monthly Weather Revie

Reconstructing annual inflows to the headwater catchments of the Murray River, Australia, using the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a major forcing of inter-decadal to quasi-centennial variability of the hydroclimatology of the Pacific Basin. Its effects are most pronounced in the extra-tropical regions, while it modulates the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the largest forcing of global inter-annual climate variability. PalaeoPDO indices are now available for at least the past 500 years. Here we show that the \u3e500 year PDO index of Shen et al. (2006) is highly correlated with inflows to the headwaters of Australia\u27s longest river system, the Murray-Darling. We then use the PDO to reconstruct annual inflows to the Murray River back to A.D. 1474. These show penta-decadal and quasi-centennial cycles of low inflows and a possible 500 year cycle of much greater inflow variability. Superimposed on this is the likely influence of recent anthropogenic global warming. We believe this may explain the exceptionally low inflows of the past decade, the lowest of the previous 529 years

The Effects of Spatial Interpolation on a Novel, Dual-Doppler 3D Wind Retrieval Technique

Three-dimensional wind retrievals from ground-based Doppler radars have played an important role in meteorological research and nowcasting over the past four decades. However, in recent years, the proliferation of open-source software and increased demands from applications such as convective parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models has led to a renewed interest in these analyses. In this study, we analyze how a major, yet often-overlooked, error source effects the quality of retrieved 3D wind fields. Namely, we investigate the effects of spatial interpolation, and show how the common practice of pre-gridding radial velocity data can degrade the accuracy of the results. Alternatively, we show that assimilating radar data directly at their observation locations improves the retrieval of important dynamic features such as the rear flank downdraft and mesocyclone within a simulated supercell, while also reducing errors in vertical vorticity, horizontal divergence, and all three velocity components.Comment: Revised version submitted to JTECH. Includes new section with a real data cas

Gargantuan hail in Argentina

On 8 February 2018, a supercell storm produced gargantuan (>15 cm or >6 in. in maximum dimension) hail as it moved over the heavily populated city of Villa Carlos Paz in Córdoba Province, Argentina. Observations of gargantuan hail are quite rare, but the large population density here yielded numerous witnesses and social media pictures and videos from this event that document multiple large hailstones. The storm was also sampled by the newly installed operational polarimetric C-band radar in Córdoba. During the RELAMPAGO campaign, the authors interviewed local residents about their accounts of the storm and uncovered additional social media video and photographs revealing extremely large hail at multiple locations in town. This article documents the case, including the meteorological conditions supporting the storm (with the aid of a high-resolution WRF simulation), the storm's observed radar signatures, and three noteworthy hailstones observed by residents. These hailstones include a freezer-preserved 4.48-in. (11.38 cm) maximum dimension stone that was scanned with a 3D infrared laser scanner, a 7.1-in. (18 cm) maximum dimension stone, and a hailstone photogrammetrically estimated to be between 7.4 and 9.3 in. (18.8-23.7 cm) in maximum dimension, which is close to or exceeds the world record for maximum dimension. Such a well-observed case is an important step forward in understanding environments and storms that produce gargantuan hail, and ultimately how to anticipate and detect such extreme events.Fil: Kumjian, Matthew R.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Gutierrez, Rachel. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Soderholm, Joshua S.. Universitat Bonn; AlemaniaFil: Nesbitt, Stephen William. University of Illinois at Urbana; Estados UnidosFil: Maldonado, Paula Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Luna, Lorena Medina. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Marquis, James. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Bowley, Kevin A.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Alvarez Imaz, María de Los Milagros. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

Gargantuan Hail Documenting an Extreme Forecasting Challenge

I n the scientific literature, some studies have identified “giant” hail as those stones with maximum dimensions exceeding 10 cm or 4 in. We propose a new size class for hailstones with maximum dimensions exceeding 15 cm or 6 in. (referred to here as “gargantuan hail”) to represent the upper extreme of hail sizes. As these are rare cases, only a few studies have specifically documented giant and gargantuan hail events, and most are individual case studies. One study of giant and gargantuan hailstones from the Aurora, Nebraska, storm of 2003 showed that every stone evaluated exhibited an outer (i.e., final) growth layer indicating wet growth, and in some cases this layer was of quite substantial thickness. Another study used social media reports to identify giant hail that ultimately became certified state records. It suggested that the occurrence of giant or gargantuan hail is significantly underreported. None of the aforementioned studies focused on observedtorm properties or environments. In con- trast, a 2013 study documented the synoptic and mesoscale environment of the super- cell that produced the Vivian, South Dakota, hailstone (which registers as the world re- cord for maximum dimension of 20 cm or 8 in.). Analysis indicated that the environment was indeed supportive of severe convective storms, but not indicative of such large hail as was observedFil: Kumjian, Matthew R.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Gutierrez, Rachel. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Soderholm, Joshua S.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Nesbitt, Stephen William. University of Illinois at Urbana; Estados UnidosFil: Maldonado, Paula Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Medina Luna, Lorena. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados UnidosFil: Marquis, James. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Bowley, Kevin A.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados UnidosFil: Alvarez Imaz, María de Los Milagros. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Salio, Paola Veronica. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentin

Stroke genetics informs drug discovery and risk prediction across ancestries

Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke — the second leading cause of death worldwide — were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry1,2. Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated (P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis3, and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3). Using a three-pronged approach4, we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry5. Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries