Joint modelling compared with two stage methods for analysing longitudinal data and prospective outcomes: A simulation study of childhood growth and BP

© The Author(s) 2014. There is a growing debate with regards to the appropriate methods of analysis of growth trajectories and their association with prospective dependent outcomes. Using the example of childhood growth and adult BP, we conducted an extensive simulation study to explore four two-stage and two joint modelling methods, and compared their bias and coverage in estimation of the (unconditional) association between birth length and later BP, and the association between growth rate and later BP (conditional on birth length). We show that the two-stage method of using multilevel models to estimate growth parameters and relating these to outcome gives unbiased estimates of the conditional associations between growth and outcome. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the simple methods resulted in bias in the presence of measurement error, as did the two-stage multilevel method when looking at the total (unconditional) association of birth length with outcome. The two joint modelling methods gave unbiased results, but using the re-inflated residuals led to undercoverage of the confidence intervals. We conclude that either joint modelling or the simpler two-stage multilevel approach can be used to estimate conditional associations between growth and later outcomes, but that only joint modelling is unbiased with nominal coverage for unconditional associations

Analysing trajectories of a longitudinal exposure: A causal perspective on common methods in lifecourse research

Longitudinal data is commonly analysed to inform prevention policies for diseases that may develop throughout life. Commonly methods interpret the longitudinal data as a series of discrete measurements or as continuous patterns. Some of the latter methods condition on the outcome, aiming to capture ‘average’ patterns within outcome groups, while others capture individual-level pattern features before relating these to the outcome. Conditioning on the outcome may prevent meaningful interpretation. Repeated measurements of a longitudinal exposure (weight) and later outcome (glycated haemoglobin levels) were simulated to match three scenarios: one with no causal relationship between growth rate and glycated haemoglobin; two with a positive causal effect of growth rate on glycated haemoglobin. Two methods that condition on the outcome and one that did not were applied to the data in 1000 simulations. The interpretation of the two-step method matched the simulation in all causal scenarios, but that of the methods conditioning on the outcome did not. Methods that condition on the outcome do not accurately represent a causal relationship between a longitudinal pattern and outcome. Researchers considering longitudinal data should carefully determine if they wish to analyse longitudinal data as a series of discrete time points or by extracting pattern features

Adolescents’ beverage choice at school and the impact on sugar intake

Background/Objectives: To examine students’ beverage choice in school, with reference to its contribution to students’ intake of non-milk extrinsic (NME) sugars. Subjects/Methods: Beverage and food selection data for students aged 11–18 years (n=2461) were collected from two large secondary schools in England, for a continuous period of 145 (school A) and 125 (school B) school days. Descriptive analysis followed by cluster analysis of the beverage data were performed separately for each school. Results: More than a third of all items selected by students were beverages, and juice-based beverages were students’ most popular choice (school A, 38.6%; school B, 35.2%). Mean NME sugars derived from beverages alone was high (school A, 16.7 g/student-day; school B, 12.9 g/student-day). Based on beverage purchases, six clusters of students were identified at each school (school A: ‘juice-based’, ‘assorted’, ‘water’, ‘cartoned flavoured milk’, ‘bottled flavoured milk’, ‘high volume juice-based’; school B: ‘assorted’, ‘water with juice-based’, ‘sparkling juice/juice-based’, ‘water’, ‘high volume water’, ‘high volume juice-based’). Both schools included ‘high volume juice-based’ clusters with the highest NME sugar means from beverages (school A, 28.6 g/student-day; school B, 24.4 g/student-day), and ‘water’ clusters with the lowest. A hierarchy in NME sugars was found according to cluster; students in the ‘high volume juice-based’ cluster returned significantly higher levels of NME sugars than students in other clusters. Conclusions: This study reveals the contribution that school beverages combined with students’ beverage choice behaviour is making to students’ NME sugar intake. These findings inform school food initiatives, and more generally public health policy around adolescents’ dietary intake

The relationship between type, timing and duration of exposure to adverse childhood experiences and adolescent self-harm and depression: Findings from three UK prospective population-based cohorts

This is the author accepted manuscriptBackground: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are well-established risk factors for self-harm and depression. However, despite their high comorbidity, there has been little focus on the impact of developmental timing and the duration of exposure to ACEs on co-occurring self-harm and depression. Methods: Data were utilised from over 22,000 children and adolescents participating in three UK cohorts, followed up longitudinally for 14 to 18 years: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS), and the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. Multinomial logistic regression models estimated associations between each ACE type and a four-category outcome: no self-harm or depression, self-harm alone, depression alone, and selfharm with co-occurring depression. A Structured Life Course Modelling Approach was used to examine whether the accumulation (duration) of exposure to each ACE, or a critical period (timing of ACEs) had the strongest effects on self-harm and depression in adolescence. Results: The majority of ACEs were associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, with consistent findings across cohorts. The importance of timing and duration of ACEs differed across ACEs and across cohorts. For parental mental health problems, longer duration of exposure was strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression in both ALSPAC (adjusted OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.10-1.25) and MCS (1.18, 1.11-1.26) cohorts. For other ACEs in ALSPAC, exposure in middle childhood was most strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, and ACE occurrence in early childhood and adolescence were more important in the MCS. Conclusion: Efforts to mitigate the impact of ACEs should start in early life with continued support throughout childhood, to prevent long-term exposure to ACEs contributing to risk of self-harm and depression in adolescence.Medical Research Council (MRC)Medical Research FoundationNational Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR)Wellcome Trus