Global and regional scale constraints to bioenergy potential and the human appropriation of net primary production

Expansion of the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is a future certainty, given a growing global food demand – driven by near-exponential population growth coupled with increasing global meat consumption – and an increasing global investment in bioenergy – promoted by nearly all global energy policy. Yet, our current understanding of the impacts associated with increased HANPP is limited and the subject of intense debate in the scientific community. The focus of my dissertation is to improve our understanding of the impacts of, and future potential for, HANPP through the use of satellite data and landuse modeling. In chapter 1, I develop a framework to evaluate global bioenergy potential using Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) net primary productivity (NPP) data in an effort to put fundamental quantitative sideboards on the overall potential for global bioenergy production. In chapter 2, I apply the framework developed in the first chapter to quantify the gross bioenergy potential of the conterminous United States (U.S.) and evaluate the feasibility of current U.S. bioenergy policy, namely the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA). In chapter 3, I evaluate the potential for intensifying productivity on existing agricultural land by controlling for management intensity and comparing current rates of agricultural and natural productivity across longterm, global-scale climate zones. The results of this work show that global-scale bioenergy potential has been generally overestimated by previous analyses, due to the under-representation of biophysical constraints on yield potential. Further, using EISA as a case-study, I show overoptimistic bioenergy estimates have resulted in unrealistic future bioenergy targets. Finally, I present strong evidence that agricultural productivity does not exceed natural rates of productivity, except in limited cases of intense management inputs, suggesting that humanity may be reaching a HANPP planetary boundary within the next few decades

Agricultural Conversion Without External Water and Nutrient Inputs Reduces Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity

Driven by global population and standard of living increases, humanity co-opts a growing share of the planet\u27s natural resources resulting in many well-known environmental trade-offs. In this study, we explored the impact of agriculture on a resource fundamental to life on Earth: terrestrial vegetation growth (net primary production; NPP). We demonstrate that agricultural conversion has reduced terrestrial NPP by ~7.0%. Increases in NPP due to agricultural conversion were observed only in areas receiving external inputs (i.e., irrigation and/or fertilization). NPP reductions were found for ~88% of agricultural lands, with the largest reductions observed in areas formerly occupied by tropical forests and savannas (~71% and ~66% reductions, respectively). Without policies that explicitly consider the impact of agricultural conversion on primary production, future demand-driven increases in agricultural output will likely continue to drive net declines in global terrestrial productivity, with potential detrimental consequences for net ecosystem carbon storage and subsequent climate warming

A comparison of plot-based satellite and Earth system model estimates of tropical forest net primary production

Net primary production (NPP) by plants represents the largest annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere to the terrestrial biosphere, playing a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle and the Earth’s climate. Rates of NPP in tropical forests are thought to be among the highest on Earth, but debates about the magnitude, patterns, and controls of NPP in the tropics highlight uncertainty in our understanding of how tropical forests may respond to environmental change. Here, we compared tropical NPP estimates generated using three common approaches: (1) field-based methods scaled from plot-level measurements of plant biomass, (2) radiation-based methods that model NPP from satellite-derived radiation absorption by plants, (3) and biogeochemical model-based methods. For undisturbed tropical forests as a whole, the three methods produced similar NPP estimates (i.e. about 10 Pg C yr1). However, the three different approaches produced vastly different patterns of NPP both in space and through time, suggesting that our understanding of tropical NPP is poor and that our ability to predict the response of NPP in the tropics to environmental change is limited. To address this shortcoming, we suggest the development of an expanded, high-density, permanent network of sites where NPP is continuously evaluated using multiple approaches. Well-designed NPP megatransects that include a high-density plot network would significantly increase the accuracy and certainty in the observed rates and patterns of tropical NPP and improve the reliability of Earth system models used to predict NPP–carbon cycle–climate interactions into the futur

Comparison of Gross Primary Productivity Derived from GIMMS NDVI3g, GIMMS, and MODIS in Southeast Asia

Gross primary production (GPP) plays an important role in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. It is particularly important to monitor GPP in Southeast Asia because of increasing rates of tropical forest degradation and deforestation in the region in recent decades. The newly available, improved, third generation Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group provides a long temporal dataset, from July 1981 to December 2011, for terrestrial carbon cycle and climate response research. However, GIMMS NDVI3g-based GPP estimates are not yet available. We applied the GLOPEM-CEVSA model, which integrates an ecosystem process model and a production efficiency model, to estimate GPP in Southeast Asia based on three independent results of the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) from GIMMS NDVI3g (GPPNDVI3g), GIMMS NDVI1g (GPPNDVI1g), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD15A2 FPAR product (GPPMOD15). The GPP results were validated using ground data from eddy flux towers located in different forest biomes, and comparisons were made among the three GPPs as well as the MOD17A2 GPP products (GPPMOD17). Based on validation with flux tower derived GPP estimates the results show that GPPNDVI3g is more accurate than GPPNDVI1g and is comparable in accuracy with GPPMOD15. In addition, GPPNDVI3g and GPPMOD15 have good spatial-temporal consistency. Our results indicate that GIMMS NDVI3g is an effective dataset for regional GPP simulation in Southeast Asia, capable of accurately tracking the variation and trends in long-term terrestrial ecosystem GPP dynamics

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link between changes in temperature and precipitation and terrestrial processes remains uncertain. Here, we combine atmospheric mass balance, remote sensing-modeled datasets of vegetation C uptake, and climate datasets to characterize the temporal variability of the terrestrial C sink and determine the dominant climate drivers of this variability. We show that the interannual variability of global land C sink has grown by 50–100% over the past 50 y. We further find that interannual land C sink variability is most strongly linked to tropical nighttime warming, likely through respiration. This apparent sensitivity of respiration to nighttime temperatures, which are projected to increase faster than global average temperatures, suggests that C stored in tropical forests may be vulnerable to future warming

Global Trends in Evapotranspiration Dominated by Increases across Large Cropland Regions

Irrigated croplands require large annual water inputs and are critical to global food production. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is a main index of water use in croplands, and several remote-sensing products have been developed to quantify AET at the global scale. In this study, we estimate global trends in actual AET, potential ET (PET), and precipitation rate (PP) utilizing the MODIS Evapotranspiration product (2001-2018) within the Google Earth Engine cloud-computing environment. We then introduce a new index based on a combination of AET, PET, and PP estimates-the evapotranspiration warning index (ETWI)-which we use to evaluate the sustainability of observed AET trends. We show that while AET has not considerably changed across global natural lands, it has significantly increased across global croplands (+14% +/- 5%). The average ETWI for global croplands is -0.40 +/- 0.25, which is largely driven by an extreme trend in AET, exceeding both PET and PP trends. Furthermore, the trends in water and energy limited areas demonstrate, on a global scale, while AET and PET do not have significant trends in both water and energy limited areas, the increasing trend of PP in energy-limited areas is more than water-limited areas. Averaging cropland ETWI trends at the country level further revealed nonsustainable trends in cropland water consumptions in Thailand, Brazil, and China. These regions were also found to experiencing some of the largest increases in net primary production (NPP) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), suggesting that recent increases in food production may be dependent on unsustainable water inputs. Globally, irrigated maize was found to be associated with nonsustainable AET trends relative to other crop types. We present an online open access application designed to enable near real-time monitoring and improve the understanding of global water consumption and availability.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Semiarid ecosystems

International audienc

Tree-ring isotopes capture interannual vegetation productivity dynamics at the biome scale

Historical and future trends in net primary productivity (NPP) and its sensitivity to global change are largely unknown because of the lack of long-term, high-resolution data. Here we test whether annually resolved tree-ring stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotopes can be used as proxies for reconstructing past NPP. Stable isotope chronologies from four sites within three distinct hydroclimatic environments in the eastern United States (US) were compared in time and space against satellite-derived NPP products, including the long-term Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS3g) NPP (1982-2011), the newest high-resolution Landsat NPP (1986-2015), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 2001-2015) NPP. We show that tree-ring isotopes, in particular δ18O, correlate strongly with satellite NPP estimates at both local and large geographical scales in the eastern US. These findings represent an important breakthrough for estimating interannual variability and long-term changes in terrestrial productivity at the biome scale.Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Climate Center grant; National Science Foundation [PLR 15-04134]; Swiss National Science Foundation [P2EZP2_152213, P300P2_164637]; Columbia University's Center for Climate and LifeOpen access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

First evidence of amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) and Ranavirus in Hong Kong amphibian trade

The emerging infectious amphibian diseases caused by amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) and ranaviruses are responsible for global amphibian population declines and extinctions. Although likely to have been spread by a variety of activities, transcontinental dispersal appears closely associated with the international trade in live amphibians. The territory of Hong Kong reports frequent, high volume trade in amphibians, and yet the presence of Bd and ranavirus have not previously been detected in either traded or free-ranging amphibians. In 2012, a prospective surveillance project was conducted to investigate the presence of these pathogens in commercial shipments of live amphibians exported from Hong Kong International Airport. Analysis of skin (Bd) and cloacal (ranavirus) swabs by quantitative PCR detected pathogen presence in 31/265 (11.7%) and in 105/185 (56.8%) of amphibians, respectively. In addition, the water in which animals were transported tested positive for Bd, demonstrating the risk of pathogen pollution by the disposal of untreated wastewater. It is uncertain whether Bd and ranavirus remain contained within Hong Kong's trade sector, or if native amphibians have already been exposed. Rapid response efforts are now urgently needed to determine current pathogen distribution in Hong Kong, evaluate potential trade-associated exposure to free-ranging amphibians, and identify opportunities to prevent disease establishme

Patterns of new versus recycled primary production in the terrestrial biosphere

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability regulate plant productivity throughout the terrestrial biosphere, influencing the patterns and magnitude of net primary production (NPP) by land plants both now and into the future. These nutrients enter ecosystems via geologic and atmospheric pathways and are recycled to varying degrees through the plant–soil–microbe system via organic matter decay processes. However, the proportion of global NPP that can be attributed to new nutrient inputs versus recycled nutrients is unresolved, as are the large-scale patterns of variation across terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combined satellite imagery, biogeochemical modeling, and empirical observations to identify previously unrecognized patterns of new versus recycled nutrient (N and P) productivity on land. Our analysis points to tropical forests as a hotspot of new NPP fueled by new N (accounting for 45% of total new NPP globally), much higher than previous estimates from temperate and high-latitude regions. The large fraction of tropical forest NPP resulting from new N is driven by the high capacity for N fixation, although this varies considerably within this diverse biome; N deposition explains a much smaller proportion of new NPP. By contrast, the contribution of new N to primary productivity is lower outside the tropics, and worldwide, new P inputs are uniformly low relative to plant demands. These results imply that new N inputs have the greatest capacity to fuel additional NPP by terrestrial plants, whereas low P availability may ultimately constrain NPP across much of the terrestrial biosphere