Detecting periodicity in experimental data using linear modeling techniques

Fourier spectral estimates and, to a lesser extent, the autocorrelation function are the primary tools to detect periodicities in experimental data in the physical and biological sciences. We propose a new method which is more reliable than traditional techniques, and is able to make clear identification of periodic behavior when traditional techniques do not. This technique is based on an information theoretic reduction of linear (autoregressive) models so that only the essential features of an autoregressive model are retained. These models we call reduced autoregressive models (RARM). The essential features of reduced autoregressive models include any periodicity present in the data. We provide theoretical and numerical evidence from both experimental and artificial data, to demonstrate that this technique will reliably detect periodicities if and only if they are present in the data. There are strong information theoretic arguments to support the statement that RARM detects periodicities if they are present. Surrogate data techniques are used to ensure the converse. Furthermore, our calculations demonstrate that RARM is more robust, more accurate, and more sensitive, than traditional spectral techniques.Comment: 10 pages (revtex) and 6 figures. To appear in Phys Rev E. Modified styl

Medical recipients of the Victoria cross during the Anglo-Boer war, 1899 -1902

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Time transfer between the Goddard Optical Research Facility and the U.S. Naval Observatory using 100 picosecond laser pulses

A horizontal two-way time comparison link in air between the University of Maryland laser ranging and time transfer equipment at the Goddard Optical Research Facility (GORF) 1.2 m telescope and the Time Services Division of the U.S. Naval Observatory (USNO) was established. Flat mirrors of 25 cm and 30 cm diameter respectively were placed on top of the Washington Cathedral and on a water tower at the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center. Two optical corner reflectors at the USNO reflect the laser pulses back to the GORF. Light pulses of 100 ps duration and an energy of several hundred microjoules are sent at the rate of 10 pulses per second. The detection at the USNO is by means of an RCA C30902E avalanche photodiode and the timing is accomplished by an HP 5370A computing counter and an HP 1000 computer with respect to a 10 pps pulse train from the Master Clock

Quantum Structure of Space Near a Black Hole Horizon

We describe a midi-superspace quantization scheme for generic single horizon black holes in which only the spatial diffeomorphisms are fixed. The remaining Hamiltonian constraint yields an infinite set of decoupled eigenvalue equations: one at each spatial point. The corresponding operator at each point is the product of the outgoing and ingoing null convergences, and describes the scale invariant quantum mechanics of a particle moving in an attractive $1/X^2$ potential. The variable $X$ that is analoguous to particle position is the square root of the conformal mode of the metric. We quantize the theory via Bohr quantization, which by construction turns the Hamiltonian constraint eigenvalue equation into a finite difference equation. The resulting spectrum gives rise to a discrete spatial topology exterior to the horizon. The spectrum approaches the continuum in the asymptotic region.Comment: References added and typos corrected. 21 pages, 1 figur

Spatial accessibility and social inclusion: The impact of Portugal's last health reform

Health policies seek to promote access to health care and should provide appropriate geographical accessibility to each demographical functional group. The dispersal demand of health‐careservices and the provision for such services atfixed locations contribute to the growth of inequality intheir access. Therefore, the optimal distribution of health facilities over the space/area can lead toaccessibility improvements and to the mitigation of the social exclusion of the groups considered mostvulnerable. Requiring for such, the use of planning practices joined with accessibility measures. However,the capacities of Geographic Information Systems in determining and evaluating spatial accessibility inhealth system planning have not yet been fully exploited. This paper focuses on health‐care services planningbased on accessibility measures grounded on the network analysis. The case study hinges on mainlandPortugal. Different scenarios were developed to measure and compare impact on the population'saccessibility. It distinguishes itself from other studies of accessibility measures by integrating network data ina spatial accessibility measure: the enhanced two‐stepfloating catchment area. The convenient location forhealth‐care facilities can increase the accessibility standards of the population and consequently reducethe economic and social costs incurred. Recently, the Portuguese government implemented a reform thataimed to improve, namely, the access and equity in meeting with the most urgent patients. It envisaged,in terms of equity, the allocation of 89 emergency network points that ensured more than 90% of thepopulation be within 30 min from any one point in the network. Consequently, several emergency serviceswere closed, namely, in rural areas. This reform highlighted the need to improve the quality of the emergencycare, accessibility to each care facility, and equity in their access. Hence, accessibility measures becomean efficient decision‐making tool, despite its absence in effective practice planning. According to anapplication of this type of measure, it was possible to verify which levels of accessibility were decreased,including the most disadvantaged people, with a larger time of dislocation of 12 min between 2001 and 2011

Dynamical modeling of collective behavior from pigeon flight data: flock cohesion and dispersion

Several models of flocking have been promoted based on simulations with qualitatively naturalistic behavior. In this paper we provide the first direct application of computational modeling methods to infer flocking behavior from experimental field data. We show that this approach is able to infer general rules for interaction, or lack of interaction, among members of a flock or, more generally, any community. Using experimental field measurements of homing pigeons in flight we demonstrate the existence of a basic distance dependent attraction/repulsion relationship and show that this rule is sufficient to explain collective behavior observed in nature. Positional data of individuals over time are used as input data to a computational algorithm capable of building complex nonlinear functions that can represent the system behavior. Topological nearest neighbor interactions are considered to characterize the components within this model. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with simulated noisy data generated from the classical (two dimensional) Vicsek model. When applied to experimental data from homing pigeon flights we show that the more complex three dimensional models are capable of predicting and simulating trajectories, as well as exhibiting realistic collective dynamics. The simulations of the reconstructed models are used to extract properties of the collective behavior in pigeons, and how it is affected by changing the initial conditions of the system. Our results demonstrate that this approach may be applied to construct models capable of simulating trajectories and collective dynamics using experimental field measurements of herd movement. From these models, the behavior of the individual agents (animals) may be inferred

Evolution of accretion disks around massive black holes: constraints from the demography of active galactic nuclei

Observations have shown that the Eddington ratios (the ratio of the bolometric luminosity to the Eddington luminosity) in QSOs/active galactic nuclei (AGNs) cover a wide range. In this paper we connect the demography of AGNs obtained by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey with the accretion physics around massive black holes and propose that the diversity in the Eddington ratios is a natural result of the long-term evolution of accretion disks in AGNs. The observed accretion rate distribution of AGNs (with host galaxy velocity dispersion sigma~70-200 km/s) in the nearby universe (z<0.3) is consistent with the predictions of simple theoretical models in which the accretion rates evolve in a self-similar way. We also discuss the implications of the results for the issues related to self-gravitating disks, coevolution of galaxies and QSOs/AGNs, and the unification picture of AGNs.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures; revised, main conclusions not changed; to appear in ApJ, Oct., 200

The Fall of the Quasar Population

We derive quantitative predictions of the optical and X-ray luminosity functions (LF) for QSs in the redshift range $z<3$. Based on BH paradigm, we investigate how the accretion is controlled by the surrounding structures, as these grow hierarchically. We argue that for $z < 3$ efficient black hole fueling is triggered by the encounters of a gas-rich host with its companions in a group. The dispersion of the dynamical parameters in the encounters produces a double power-law LF. Strong luminosity evolution (LE) is produced as these encounters deplete the gas supply in the host; an additional, milder density evolution obtains since the interactions become progressively rarer as the groups grow richer but less dense. From the agreement with the optical and the X-ray data, we conclude that the evolution of the bright quasars is articulated in two ways. Earlier than $z~3$ the gas-rich protogalaxies grow by merging, which also induces parallel growth of central holes accreting at Eddington rates. In the later era of group assemblage the host encounters with companions drive onto already existing holes further but meager accretion; these consume the gas in the hosts, and cause supply-limited emissions which are intermittent, go progressively sub-Eddington and peter out. Then other fueling processes come to the foreground; we discuss the faint emissions, especially noticeable in X-rays, which are expected when hosts in the field cannibalize satellite galaxies with their meager gas contents.Comment: 12 pages Latex + 3 EPS figures, ApJ in press, we have corrected the previous printing problems with the style \ca