An empirical analysis of the twin deficits evidence from Sri Lanka

This paper explores the empirical relationship between budget and current account deficits in the case of a small developing country, Sri Lanka for the period of 1960-2010. The data are collected from annual reports, Centra! Bank, Sri Lanka. The econometric methods used in this study are cointegration technique, Error correction modeling and Granger causality analysis. The empirical results are consistent with conventional view. Our empirical results clearly suggest that there exist statistically significant long-run positive relationship between the trade deficit and the budget deficit in Sri Lanka. The Granger causality test shows that the direction of causality runs from the budget deficit to the trade deficit and the relationship is positive and statistically significant. '••The empirical analysis in this study partially supports the Keynesian view that there is a linkage between the trade deficit and the budget deficit and the direction of causality is correct but the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is not valid for Sri Lankan economy during the study period

Empirical investigation of the dynamic relationship between government expenditure and Economic growth in Sri Lanka

This study examines the long run dynamic relationship between government expenditures and economic growth for Sri Lankan economy during the period from 1977-2009. The study tests the validity of the Keynesian view and Wagner's law in the case of Sri Lankan economy. The empirical evidence has been acquired through the co-integration, error correction model and the Granger causality tests. The empirical findings clearly suggest that there is a statistically significant positive long run relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Sri Lanka during the sample period. The Granger causality test shows that causality runs from government expenditure to economic growth and vice versa, the relationship is positive and statistically significant. The empiridcal results of this study support the Keynesian view and Wagnerian law and the direction of causality is valid for Sri Lankan economy during the study period. These results have important policy implications for both domestic policy makers and the development partners working in Sri Lanka

An evaluation of alcohol attendances to an inner city emergency department before and after the introduction of the UK Licensing Act 2003

Background: The Licensing Act 2003 (The Act) was implemented on the 24th November 2005 across England and Wales. The Act allowed more flexible and longer opening hours for licensed premises. We investigated the effect of The Act on alcohol related attendances to an inner city emergency department in Birmingham, UK. \ud \ud Methods: We compared the proportion and time of alcohol related emergency department attendances in one week periods in January 2005 and 2006, before and after the implementation of The Licensing Act 2003. An alcohol related attendance was defined as any attendance where there was any documentation of the patient having consumed alcohol before presenting to the emergency department, if they appeared intoxicated on examination, or if alcohol attributed to their final diagnosis. \ud \ud Results: The total weekly attendances increased slightly from 1,912 in 2005 to 2,146 in 2006. There was non-significant reduction in the proportion of alcohol related attendances between 2005 (3.6%) and 2006 (2.9%). A significantly greater proportion of attendances occurred at the weekend between 18.00 and 23.59 in 2005 (61.4%) than in 2006 (17.2%). There was a corresponding significant increase in the weekend proportion of attendances occurring between 03.00 to 05.59 in 2006. \ud \ud Conclusion: Our findings show that there was a change in the pattern of alcohol related attendances to the emergency department around the time of implementation of the Licensing Act 2003, which has implications for delivery of emergency department services

Evaluating alcohol intoxication management services: the EDARA mixed-methods study

Background: Front-line health-care services are under increased demand when acute alcohol intoxication is most common, which is in night-time environments. Cities have implemented alcohol intoxication management services to divert the intoxicated away from emergency care. Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability to patients and staff of alcohol intoxication management services and undertake an ethnographic study capturing front-line staff’s views on the impact of acute alcohol intoxication on their professional lives. Methods: This was a controlled mixed-methods longitudinal observational study with an ethnographic evaluation in parallel. Six cities with alcohol intoxication management services were compared with six matched control cities to determine effects on key performance indicators (e.g. number of patients in the emergency department and ambulance response times). Surveys captured the impact of alcohol intoxication management services on the quality of care for patients in six alcohol intoxication management services, six emergency departments with local alcohol intoxication management services and six emergency departments without local alcohol intoxication management services. The ethnographic study considered front-line staff perceptions in two cities with alcohol intoxication management services and one city without alcohol intoxication management services. Results: Alcohol intoxication management services typically operated in cities in which the incidence of acute alcohol intoxication was greatest. The per-session average number of attendances across all alcohol intoxication management services was low (mean 7.3, average minimum 2.8, average maximum 11.8) compared with the average number of emergency department attendances per alcohol intoxication management services session (mean 78.8), and the number of patients diverted away from emergency departments, per session, required for services to be considered cost-neutral was 8.7, falling to 3.5 when ambulance costs were included. Alcohol intoxication management services varied, from volunteer-led first aid to more clinically focused nurse practitioner services, with only the latter providing evidence for diversion from emergency departments. Qualitative and ethnographic data indicated that alcohol intoxication management services are acceptable to practitioners and patients and that they address unmet need. There was evidence that alcohol intoxication management services improve ambulance response times and reduce emergency department attendance. Effects are uncertain owing to the variation in service delivery. Limitations: The evaluation focused on health service outcomes, yet evidence arose suggesting that alcohol intoxication management services provide broader societal benefits. There was no nationally agreed standard operating procedure for alcohol intoxication management services, undermining the evaluation. Routine health data outcomes exhibited considerable variance, undermining opportunities to provide an accurate appraisal of the heterogenous collection of alcohol intoxication management services. Conclusions: Alcohol intoxication management services are varied, multipartner endeavours and would benefit from agreed national standards. Alcohol intoxication management services are popular with and benefit front-line staff and serve as a hub facilitating partnership working. They are popular with alcohol intoxication management services patients and capture previously unmet need in night-time environments. However, acute alcohol intoxication in emergency departments remains an issue and opportunities for diversion have not been entirely realised. The nurse-led model was the most expensive service evaluated but was also the most likely to divert patients away from emergency departments, suggesting that greater clinical involvement and alignment with emergency departments is necessary. Alcohol intoxication management services should be regarded as fledgling services that require further work to realise benefit. Future work: Research could be undertaken to determine if a standardised model of alcohol intoxication management services, based on the nurse practitioner model, can be developed and implemented in different settings. Future evaluations should go beyond the health service and consider outcomes more generally, especially for the police. Future work on the management of acute alcohol intoxication in night-time environments could recognise the partnership between health-care, police and ambulance services and third-sector organisations in managing acute alcohol intoxication. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN63096364

Denying humanness to victims: How gang members justify violent behavior

The high prevalence of violent offending amongst gang-involved youth has been established in the literature. Yet the underlying psychological mechanisms that enable youth to engage in such acts of violence remain unclear. 189 young people were recruited from areas in London, UK, known for their gang activity. We found that gang members, in comparison to non-gang youth, described the groups they belong to as having recognized leaders, specific rules and codes, initiation rituals, and special clothing. Gang members were also more likely than non-gang youth to engage in violent behavior and endorse moral disengagement strategies (i.e., moral justification, euphemistic language, advantageous comparison, displacement of responsibility, attribution of blame, and dehumanization). Finally, we found that dehumanizing victims partially mediated the relationship between gang membership and violent behavior. These findings highlight the effects of groups at the individual level and an underlying psychological mechanism that explains, in part, how gang members engage in violence

Change in alcohol outlet density and alcohol-related harm to population health (CHALICE): a comprehensive record-linked database study in Wales

Excess alcohol consumption has many adverse effects on health, including an increased risk of liver cirrhosis, gastrointestinal tract and breast cancers, high blood pressure and stroke. There is also an increased risk of harm resulting from antisocial behaviour and violence. Binge drinking is a particular problem, with the highest prevalence in the 16- to 24-year age group for women and men. Up to 40% of attendances at accident and emergency (A&E) departments and around half of all violent crimes in the UK are alcohol related. Around 37% of men and 25% of women exceeded UK guidelines for safe levels of alcohol consumption in 2014 (women more than three units per day; men more than four units per day) and 19% of men and 11% of women binge drink (women more than six units per day; men more than eight units per day). Given the wide range of harm resulting from this substantial level of excess consumption, the potential impact on health at the population level from a reduction in consumption is considerable. One of the principal policies recommended by the British Medical Association to reduce alcohol consumption is to reduce easy access to alcohol through controls on hours of sale and outlet density. This uses the availability theory of alcohol-related harm, which states that harmful outcomes are linked directly or indirectly to a greater availability of alcohol, through a higher density of alcohol outlets, leading to higher consumption and hence alcohol-related harm. However, the evidence relating outlet density to alcohol-related harm is not consistent. Many cross-sectional studies have suggested that high outlet densities are associated with a higher rate of a wide range of alcohol-related injuries. Fewer studies have investigated associations between outlet density and non-injury health outcomes, suggesting that high outlet densities are associated with high levels of consumption, sexually transmitted infections and alcohol-related hospital admissions. There have been few longitudinal studies but these have provided limited evidence that an increase in outlet density is associated with increased consumption and interpersonal violence and that a decrease in proximity to outlets is associated with a small decrease in consumption. No longitudinal studies of admissions to hospital have been published for non-violent outcomes. Many methodological questions remain over the best way to measure outlet density and how to model the relationship with alcohol-related harms. Little is known about the effects of a change in outlet density on inequalities in alcohol-related health and the role of population migration

Relative contribution of effects included in contemporary groups for adjusted and actual 120-day and 210-day weights in Nelore cattle in Brazil

The objective of this research was to estimate the relative magnitude of effects included in contemporary groups (CG) and their interactions with adjusted and actual 120 d and 210 d weights in 72,731 male and female Nelore calves born from 1985 to 2005 in 40 herds from PMGRN (Genetic Improvement Program of Nelore). Ten models with different CG structures were compared. The analyses were done using the general linear models (GLM) procedure run in SAS software. All of the effects included in the CG for each model were significant (p < 0.001) for the four traits analyzed. Inclusion of semester or trimester of birth as part of a CG was more appropriate than its use as an independent effect in the model because it accounted for interactions with the other effects in the CG. Calf sex (CS) and dam age at calving (DAC) had similar effects across the models, which suggested independence from other effects in these models. The corresponding age deviation effect had a larger impact on actual weight at 120 d than any other effect in all of the models tested. The use of actual weights in models with no CS effect in CG provides an alternative that would allow better genetic connectedness among CGs and greater accuracy in genetic evaluations

Winning, losing, and violence

Methods: Associations between assault related emergency department (ED) attendances and international sporting events (home and away rugby and soccer matches) in a European capital city (Cardiff) served by one ED, between 1 May 1995 and 30 April 2002 were investigated. The frequency of assault related ED attendances were studied relative to whether the national team won or lost, controlling for potential covariates: match attendance, match location (home/away), results (win/lose), net scores, and day of match (weekend/weekday). Multiple linear regression was used to identify significant associations with ED assault related attendances. Results: Matches which the Wales team won (p = 0.03), match attendance (p<0.001), and weekend matches (p<0.001) were positively associated with ED assault related injury attendances. Assault frequency measured in this way was no different for home and away matches. Conclusions: Assault injury resulting in ED treatment was more frequent when national teams won than when they lost. Sport type made no difference. Violence prevention efforts should be increased on international match days, when the national team is expected to win, when match attendance is large, and for away as well as home matches

Association between obesity and diabetes using nested linear models

A data source with 7260 cases from the prospective observational study was used. Cases included both sexes and age ranging between 20yr and 7Oyr. Chi-squared tests and linear models were used to examine the effects of age (linear and quadratic), sex, smoking habit (currently a smoker or non-smoker), presence or absence of type 2 diabetes on obesity as measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist to hip ratio (WHR). Both these measures ofobesity were significantly affected by age, sex and the presence of diabetes. Cases with diabetes were significantly more obese (10%) between the ages 40yr to 59yr compared to patients without diabetes. These results accentuate the need to further examine the association between age, diabetes and obesity and other risk factors with cardiovascular diseases