Central bank policy under significant balance-of-payment shocks and structural shifts

In this paper, we analyze a number of monetary and FX policy alternatives using the model of a small open oil-exporting economy hit by severe balance-of-payment shocks, such as those that simultaneously affected the Russian economy in 2014-2015. For our purposes, we modify Romer's (2013) IS-MP general equilibrium model by adding a structure similar to the Russian economy (tradables and oil vs. non-tradables). In the model, we consider an optimal policy mix that includes a floating exchange rate, FX liquidity provision by a central bank and temporary tightening of monetary policy. The flexible exchange rate works as a shock absorber, helping restore aggregate demand and domestic production. If inflation expectations are not anchored, contractionary monetary policy helps to stabilize them. Financial stability risks are addressed by lending FX liquidity to the banking sector

Formal Controller Synthesis from Specifications Given by Discrete-Time Hybrid Automata

This paper deals with formal controller synthesis for discrete-time dynamical systems. For a specification under the form of a discrete-time hybrid automaton, we aim at synthesizing controllers such that the trajectories of the closed-loop system are also trajectories of the hybrid automaton. We first show that the existence of an alternating simulation relation from the specification to the open-loop system is a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of such controllers. Then, we propose an approach based on the use of symbolic (i.e. finite-state) abstractions of both the system and the specification. Effective computations are discussed for systems that are monotone and for specifications given by piecewise affine hybrid automata. We extend our approach to handle specifications with additional safety or reachability requirements. Finally, we illustrate our approach with examples from autonomous vehicle control

Comparative characteristics of cytokine regulation in patients with gastric diseases associated with <i>Helicobacter pylori</i> infection

When the body is infected with the bacterium Helicobacter pylori, a cytokine cascade is launched, which plays a key role in the progression of chronic inflammatory and destructive processes in the gastric mucosa. Thus, the secretion of a number of cytokines is stimulated, which in turn contribute to the attraction of immunocompetent cells and the development of inflammatory changes. However, hyperproduction of cytokines can lead to atrophic changes in the gastric mucosa and, as a result, degeneration into gastric cancer. Thus, the role of cytokines in precancerous conditions is ambiguous. On the one hand, they activate the immune response aimed at eliminating the pathogen. On the other hand, they themselves contribute to the progression of the disease.The complex clinical and laboratory study included patients: 60 with chronic gastritis (CG), 55 with chronic atrophic gastritis (CAG), 50 with gastric cancer (GC, stage I-II, morphological variant – adenocarcinoma) and 60 – control group. The diagnoses were verified according to international and Russian recommendations and confirmed by laboratory and instrumental studies. All patients were comparable in terms of gender and age characteristics (p &gt; 0.05). All patients had specific IgG to H. pylori. The study was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the FRC KSC SB RAS (protocol No. 11 dated November 11, 2013). All ethical requirements were observed, and the patients signed the informed consent form for participation. Patients and persons of the control group underwent a single blood sampling from the cubital vein upon admission to vacutainers with heparin.The levels of IL-2, IL-4, IL-8, TNFα, interferon-γ in the blood serum of patients and healthy individuals were determined using the enzyme immunoassay method using reagent kits manufactured by JSC “VectorBest”. Statistical data processing was carried out using the Statistica for Windows 8.0 application package.All patients with H. pylori-associated diseases (CG, CAG, GC) showed an increase in pro-inflammatory (IL-2, IL-8, IFNγ) with a significant increase in IL-8 in all patients and IFNγ in gastric cancer and antiinflammatory cytokine (IL-4) with a maximum value in gastric cancer. A combined Th1 and Th2 is found – a mediated immune response with a maximum violation of cytokine regulation in gastric cancer

Religious Conversion as a Reality of the Modern Social Universe

Статья поступила в редакцию 15.06.2024; одобрена после рецензирования 30.06.2024; принята к публикации 15.07.2024.The article was submitted 15.06.2024; approved after reviewing 30.06.2024; accepted for publication 15.07.2024.В научной статье изложены результаты гуманитарного исследования религиозной конверсии в проекции на религиозную ситуацию, сложившуюся в современном казахстанском обществе. Рассмотрены разноплановые западные, российские и казахстанские методологические подходы к изучению религиозной конверсии в реалиях универсума современности. Исследованы деструктивные формы религиозной конверсии. Анализ примеров религиозной конверсии позволил выявить основные направления ее исследования в казахстанском обществе и выработать собственную методологию автора.The scientific article presents the results of the anthropological study of religious conversion in the forecast on the religious scene in contemporary Kazakhstani society. Existing Western, Russian and Kazakh methods of studying religious conversion in the universum realities of modernity are reviewed. The analysis of samples of religious conversion allowed us to analyze the basic trends of conversion in Kazakhstani society with elaboration of the author’s original attitudes. Destructive forms of religious conversion are investigated, proposals orienting citizens to peaceful resolution of conflicts are drawn up. The article is aimed at religious scholars, theologians, students, civil servants focused on involvement in the study of this phenomenon

ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ КЛЕТОЧНОГО ИММУНИТЕТА В КРОВИ У БОЛЬНЫХ ХРОНИЧЕСКИМ И ХРОНИЧЕСКИМ АТРОФИЧЕСКИМ ГАСТРИТОМ

Helicobacter pylori is one of the common causes of chronic gastritis. In our study, we studied the indicators of cellular immunity in patients with chronic gastritis and chronic atrophic gastritis in the background of Helicobacter pylori infection. Patients with atrophic gastritis of the body of the stomach were recorded changes in the immune status, manifested in the development of secondary immunodeficiency.Helicobacter pylori является одной из распространенных причин возникновения хронических гастритов. В нашем исследовании мы изучили показатели клеточного иммунитета у больных хроническим гастритом и хроническим атрофическим гастритом на фоне Helicobacter pylori инфекции. У больных с атрофическим гастритом тела желудка регистрировались изменения иммунного статуса, проявляющиеся в развитии вторичного иммунодефицита

Ассоциативные паразитозы желудочно-кишечного тракта лошадей и оценка эффективности противопаразитарных препаратов

Invasive diseases of horses are an urgent problem in the horse breeding industry of the Republic of Belarus, as well as in the near and far abroad countries. The main role among the parasitic pathology is occupied by helminths of the small and large intestine, as well as larvae of gasterophilus. In associative course, they are the cause of significant economic losses associated with the growth and development of sick young animals, reduced performance, endurance of animals, increased susceptibility to other diseases, and even the death of animals. Planned therapeutic and preventive measures using broad-spectrum anthelmintics is a priority measure to reduce economic damage in development of the horse breeding industry. The paper provides data on spread of parasitoses of gastrointestinal tract in horses in the Republic of Belarus during period of 2004-2020. The paper presents the species composition of horse parasites localized in the stomach, small and large intestines. Data on extensiveness and intensity of invasions of horses by parasitocenosis of digestive tract in terms of age are presented. Therapeutic efficiency of antiparasitic drugs of various pharmacological groups in mono- and polyinfestations of gastrointestinal tract of horses are studied. High extensibility of Avermectin series preparations (Avermectin paste 1 %, Rivertin 1 %) has been determined for nematodes of gastrointestinal tract of horses and gastrointestinal disease. High efficiency has been obtained from a new complex antiparasitic preparation for horses “Prazimax” in mono- and polyinfestations caused by parasites of gastrointestinal tract, including nematodes of the small and large intestines, larvae of gasterophilus and Anoplocephala perfoliata cestodes. Data on spread of associative course of parasitocenoses of the digestive tract of horses, age and seasonal dynamics will allow veterinary specialists to make timely diagnosis, conduct differential diagnostics, determine the optimal timing of diagnostic, therapeutic and preventive treatments, taking into account the specifics of parasitocenosis.Инвазионные болезни лошадей являются актуальной проблемой в коневодческий отрасли Республики Беларусь, а также стран ближнего и дальнего зарубежья. Основную роль среди паразитарной патологии занимают гельминты тонкого и толстого отделов кишечника, а также личинки гастерофилюсов. При ассоциативном течении они являются причиной значительных экономических потерь, связанных с ростом и развитием переболевшего молодняка, снижением работоспособности, выносливости животных, повышением восприимчивости к другим болезням и даже гибели животных. Проведение плановых лечебно-профилактических мероприятий с применением антигельминтиков широкого спектра действия является приоритетной мерой снижения экономического ущерба в развитии отрасли коневодства. В статье приводятся сведения по распространению паразитозов желудочно-кишечного тракта лошадей на территории Республики Беларусь в период 2004–2020 гг. Представлен видовой состав паразитов лошадей, локализующихся в желудке, тонком и толстом кишечнике. Изучены данные по экстенсивности и интенсивности инвазий лошадей паразитоценозами пищеварительного тракта в возрастном аспекте. Исследована терапевтическая эффективность противопаразитарных препаратов различных фармакологических групп при моно- и полиинвазиях желудочно-кишечного тракта лошадей. Показана высокая экстенсэффективность препаратов авермектинового ряда (авермектиновая паста 1 %, ривертин 1 %, универм) при нематодозах желудочно-кишечного тракта лошадей и гастерофилезе. Установлена высокая эффективность от применения нового комплексного противопаразитарного препарата для лошадей «Празимакс» при моно- и полиинвазиях, вызванных паразитами желудочно-кишечного тракта, среди которых нематоды тонкого и толстого кишечника, личинки гастерофилюсов и цестоды вида Anoplocephala perfoliata. Данные о распространении ассоциативного течения паразитоценозов пищеварительного тракта лошадей, возрастной и сезонной динамики позволят ветеринарным специалистам своевременно поставить диагноз, провести дифференциальную диагностику, определить оптимальные сроки диагностических, лечебных и профилактических обработок с учетом специфики паразитоценоза

Ozone and nitrogen dioxide above the northern Tien Shan

The results of systematic perennial measurements of the total ozone (since 1979) and nitrogen dioxide column (since 1983) in the atmosphere in the European-Asian continent center above the mountainmass of the Tien Shan are given. This region is distinguished by a great number of sunny days during a year. The observation station is at the Northern shore of Issyk Kul Lake (42.56 N 77.04 E 1650 m above the sea level). The measurement results are presented as the monthly averaged atmospheric total ozone and NO2 stratospheric column abundances (morning and evening). The peculiarities of seasonal variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide atmospheric contents, their regular variances with a quasi-biennial cycles and trends have been noticed. Irregular variances of ozone and nitrogen dioxide atmospheric contents, i.e. their positive and negative anomalies in the monthly averaged contents relative to the perennial averaged monthly means, have been analyzed. The synchronous and opposite in phase anomalies in variations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide atmospheric contents were explained by the transport and zonal circulation in the stratosphere (Kamenogradsky et al., 1990)

A commodity exporting economy under financial and trade restrictions: Aggregate and structural changes

We study the situation when a commodity-exporting economy is under sanctions and cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth import restrictions amid slower decline of income flow from a commodity-export. Our study attempts to determine the adequate response of the economy, depending on assumptions about the possibilities of import substitution within a structural dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated on Russian data. We use a modified version of the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans’ model to evaluate aggregate and structural changes in the economy in the shorter and longer run. We consider several scenarios with different assumptions about the efficiency of import substitution, which is defined along two dimensions (for consumers as well as for producers). The results show that trade restrictions make import substitution optimal, but only in those sectors where such substitution is relatively more effective. Limited labour resources in the economy are compensated with higher capital intensity of production in the optimistic and neutral scenarios. Reallocation of resources to build up the necessary capital intensity calls for temporarily higher saving rates. As a result, GDP may be higher, but consumption may be lower comparing to the baseline. The results mean that effectiveness of import substitution should be taken into account in decision making on industrial policy. If efficiency of import-substitution is asymmetric and biased to goods for final consumption relative to goods for investments, the structure of imported goods becomes biased to the latter. The results imply higher relative price of consumer goods