Output Gap and GDP in Brazil: a real-time data analysis

Economic agents make decisions using real-time data. However, recent literature has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, impairing the reliability of real-time data. We organize a real-time dataset for Brazil’s GDP, and assess the revisions of GDP growth and the output gap. We show that GDP growth revisions are substantial, with a 0.7 p.p. mean absolute revision for the quarter-over-quarter growth, although the revisions become less important for four-quarter changes. To assess output gap revisions, we use four methods to estimate the output gap: Hodrick-Prescott filter, linear trend, quadratic trend, and Harvey-Clark model of unobservable components. The output gap revisions are substantial in all methods, with absolute mean revisions between 0.6 p.p. and 2.3 p.p. In three out of the four methods, the revisions implied changes in the output gap sign in 30 percent or more of the cases. In general, both the GDP data revision and the sample increase are relevant sources of output gap revisions. Key words: Real-time data; Output gap; Gross Domestic Product; Business cycle; Brazil. JEL classification: C82; E32.

Produção Industrial no Brasil: uma análise de dados em tempo real

The recent literature on real-time data analysis has shown that several economic activity measures go through important revisions over time, limiting the use of those measures. We organize a real-time data set for industrial production (IP) in Brazil and assess the revisions of the series of IP growth, acceleration and gap. We show that the revisions of IP month-over-month growth and three-moving average growth are substantial (average absolute revision of 0.9 p.p. and 0.4 p.p., respectively), although those revisions become less important as the aggregation period increases (for example, for twelve-month growth). Furthermore, we show that the revisions of the IP acceleration (change in the IP growth rate) are also relevant. In order to analyze the revision of the IP-based output gap, we use three methods to extract the trend: HP filter, linear trend and quadratic trend. The output gap revisions are substantial in all methods, with average absolute revisions from 1.3 p.p. to 3.2 p.p. In two out of the three methods, the revision implied changes in the output gap sign in 30 percent or more of the time. In general, both the IP data revision and the sample size increase were relevant sources of output gap revisions, although the results suggest predominance of the revisions stemming from the latter.Keywords: Real-time data; Industrial production; Output gap; Business cycle; Brazil. JEL classification: C82; E32.

UMA REVISÃO DO POTENCIAL BIOTECNOLÓGICO DE LECTINAS DO GÊNERO Canavalia e Dioclea

As lectinas compreendam como uma classe de proteínas com habilidade de reconhecer carboidratos sem necessidade de apresentar atividade catalítica. Lectinas vegetais desempenham várias funções biológicas, tais como, sinalização celular e de defesa da planta, além disso, essas proteínas são antitumoral, antiviral, vaso relaxante e atividades pro e anti-inflamatórias. Deste modo, o objetivo deste estudo foi revisar a literatura disponível sobre o uso de lectinas do gênero Canavalia e Dioclea com potencial biológico e suas aplicações futuras na saúde humana. Canavalia brasiliensis, Canavalia boliviana, Canavalia grandiflora, Canavalia maritima, Canavalia gladiata, Canavalia ensiformis, Dioclea sclerocarpa, Dioclea reflexa, Dioclea violacea e Dioclea guianensis apresentam ser um potencial biotecnológico no desenvolvimento de pesquisas que visem a detecção de novos compostos com atividade antimicrobiana, anti-inflamatória, analgésica, antinociceptiva, antidepressiva e efeito vasodilatador

CONTROLADOR LQG APLICADO A UM SISTEMA DE DIREÇÃO ELÉTRICA

A utilização de sistemas eletroeletrônicos (E/E) nos automóveis tem aumentado nos últimos anos. Isto se deve principalmente aos diversos benefícios oferecidos por estes sistemas como: redução no consumo de combustível, aumento de performance, conforto e segurança. Um dos sistemas bastante utilizado atualmente é o Sistema de Direção Elétrica Assistida (EPAS). O EPAS pode ser considerado como evolução dos mecanismos de direção tradicionais, e tem como objetivo reduzir o esforço empregado pelos motoristas durante as manobras de esterçamento das rodas. Dentre os diversos componentes que fazem parte do EPAS, destaca-se a Unidade de Controle Eletrônico (ECU) e também a estratégia de controle utilizada. Diante deste cenário, este trabalho tem por objetivo investigar a utilização da estratégia de controle Linear Quadrático Gaussiano (LQG), para o controle de um EPAS. Os resultados das simulações realizadas demonstraram que esta estratégia pode ser utilizada no projeto do controlador, uma vez que apresentou estabilidade e robustez ainda que sob presença de perturbações externas

Notes on Brood Morphology and the Development of the Neotropical Eusocial Wasp Mischocyttarus cerberus (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

Mischocyttarus cerberus stands out among the most investigated species of the eusocial paper wasp, in Brazil. While the adult characteristics were relatively well reported in the earlier studies, very meager information was available regarding their immature stages. This study provides a description of the immature morphology of the general brood of M. cerberus, by studying the number of instars and analyzing the degree of influence exerted by some of the environmental factors on the individuals in the immature phases. This work involves a detailed study of 72 wasp colonies from Rio Claro and Ribeirão Preto. Using the larvae drawn from 41 nests, the number of instars was calculated; besides, the degree to which a few environmental factors could affect the immature brood development was assessed in 31 nests. Eggs showed patterns similar in terms of form and size to that of the species described earlier. The two ventral lobes, characteristic of the Mischocyttarus larvae, were fully developed only in the fifth instar. The measurements of the larval heads in the five instars found concurred with the earlier reports for most of the social wasps. Furthermore, the larval stages took longer to develop, which could be related to the greater susceptibility of the larvae to the prevailing environmental factors. From the results of our study, we concluded that the M. cerberus showed the typical developmental pattern in the immature stages of its genus

Guidelines for Successful Quantitative Gene Expression in Real- Time qPCR Assays

This chapter was developed to provide some important guidelines for studies with quantitative PCR (qPCR) using either dyes or probes, citing several essential components necessary for a good PCR assay. The efficiency and specificity of quantitative PCR (qPCR) depend on several parameters related to mRNA quantification that must be controlled to avoid mistakes in data interpretation. Avoiding contamination with proteins, carbohydrate and phenolic compounds during RNA extraction and purification processes will improve RNA quality and provide reliable results. Specific primers and sensible probes are also crucial to intensify efficiency, specificity and fluorescence. Other parameters such as the optimization of primer concentrations and efficiency primer curves must be done. During gene-expression profile quantification, qPCR assays using reference genes are required to normalize the target gene expression data. These reference genes are checked for stability to identify the most stable genes among a group of candidate genes that will be used to normalize the qPCR data, using programs such as geNorm, BestKeeper and NormFinder. Additionally, the choice of appropriate reference genes for a specific experimental condition is fundamental. The main aim of this chapter is to provide guidelines and highlight precautions to obtain a successful qPCR assays

Mechanical and hygroscopic characteristics of unidirectional jute/glass and jute/carbon hybrid laminates

Physical and mechanical performance of natural fiber composites can be tailored by hybridizing with synthetic fibers. Jute fibers are promising and highly available at a low cost in some countries, and they have been used in several applications, with the extra benefit of helping socially depressed people who commonly explore this plant. This work investigates the effect of hybridization on the properties of jute/glass and jute/carbon laminates with polyester resin. Nine different laminates were manufactured by vacuum infusion using unidirectional jute, E-glass, and carbon fabric reinforcements. Tensile, flexural, and short beam tests were performed in accordance with ASTM standards. The hybrid composites showed generally intermediate properties compared to the non-hybrid two-component laminates. The mechanical properties of the hybrid composites were 50–75% smaller than those of their respective pure glass and pure carbon composites, but 30– 300% higher compared to the pure jute composite. Among the hybrids, the number of layers of the synthetic fiber played the most important role on properties, rather than the layup. That is, the variation in the number of jute fabrics may produce the required combination of stiffness and strength for different applications. Besides, the hybrid laminates, with more layers of synthetic fibers showed better hygroscopic performance.天然纤维复合材料的物理和机械性能可以通过与合成纤维杂交来定制. 黄 麻纤维在一些国家很有前途, 而且价格低廉, 而且很容易获得, 它们已被用 于多种应用中, 有助于帮助那些经常探索这种植物的社会抑郁症患者. 本文 研究了杂化对聚酯树脂黄麻/玻璃和黄麻/碳层压板财产的影响. 使用单向 黄麻、E-玻璃和碳纤维增强材料通过真空浸渍制备了九种不同的层压板. 根据ASTM标准进行拉伸、弯曲和短梁试验. 与非混杂双组分层压板相比, 混杂复合材料通常表现出中等的财产. 混杂复合材料的力学财产比各自的 纯玻璃和纯碳复合材料小50-75%, 但比纯黄麻复合材料高30-300%. 在这些 杂种中, 合成纤维的层数对财产起着最重要的作用, 而不是铺层. 也就是说, 黄麻织物数量的变化可能会产生不同应用所需的硬度和强度组合. 此外, 具 有更多层合成纤维的混合层压板显示出更好的吸湿性能

Avaliação do Conforto Térmico de uma Sala de Aula: Uma Aproximação CFD / Thermal Comfort Evaluation of a Classroom: A CFD Approach

O conforto térmico constitui um dos parâmetros mais importantes relacionados ao bem-estar, este por sua vez desempenha um papel importante no conceito de produtividade quando se analisa um ambiente de trabalho, ou mesmo um ambiente universitário como um auditório ou uma sala de aula. Com isso, esse estudo consiste em avaliar, por meio da simulação computacional, o comportamento fluidotérmico associado ao conforto térmico na sala de aula da Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia, centro multidisciplinar de Bom Jesus da Lapa- BA. O software ANSYS (versão Student) foi utilizado, sendo possível investigação das fases de pré-processamento, processamento e resultados que envolvem o problema. Um estudo comparativo entre os aparelhos de ar-condicionado em sua posição convencional e na nova posição foram observados, de modo a examinar os campos de temperatura e velocidade ao redor dos corpos hipotéticos (estudantes sentados)