Modified sequential change point procedures based on estimating functions

A large class of sequential change point tests are based on estimating functions where estimation is computationally efficient as (possibly numeric) optimization is restricted to an initial estimation. This includes examples as diverse as mean changes, linear or non-linear autoregressive and binary models. While the standard cumulative-sum-detector (CUSUM) has recently been considered in this general setup, we consider several modifications that have faster detection rates in particular if changes do occur late in the monitoring period. More presicely, we use three different types of detector statistics based on partial sums of a monitoring function, namely the modified moving-sum-statistic (mMOSUM), Page’s cumulative-sum-statistic (Page-CUSUM) and the standard moving-sum-statistic (MOSUM). The statistics only differ in the number of observations included in the partial sum. The mMOSUM uses a bandwidth parameter which multiplicatively scales the lower bound of the moving sum. The MOSUM uses a constant bandwidth parameter, while Page-CUSUM chooses the maximum over all possible lower bounds for the partial sums. So far, the first two schemes have only been studied in a linear model, the MOSUM only for a mean change. We develop the asymptotics under the null hypothesis and alternatives under mild regularity conditions for each test statistic, which include the existing theory but also many new examples. In a simulation study we compare all four types of test procedures in terms of their size, power and run length. Additionally we illustrate their behavior by applications to exchange rate data as well as the Boston homicide data

A novel change point approach for the detection of gas emission sources using remotely contained concentration data

Motivated by an example from remote sensing of gas emission sources, we derive two novel change point procedures for multivariate time series where, in contrast to classical change point literature, the changes are not required to be aligned in the different components of the time series. Instead the change points are described by a functional relationship where the precise shape depends on unknown parameters of interest such as the source of the gas emission in the above example. Two different types of tests and the corresponding estimators for the unknown parameters describing the change locations are proposed. We derive the null asymptotics for both tests under weak assumptions on the error time series and show asymptotic consistency under alternatives. Furthermore, we prove consistency for the corresponding estimators of the parameters of interest. The small sample behavior of the methodology is assessed by means of a simulation study and the above remote sensing example analyzed in detail

Incidence and evolution of nasal polyps in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis

SummaryNasal polyps are a clinical sign of alert for investigating Cystic Fibrosis (CF).AimsTo study the incidence of nasal polyps in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis, its possible association with age, gender, clinical manifestations, genotype and sweat chlorine level, and its evolution with topical steroid therapy.MethodsClinical symptoms, sweat chlorine level and genotype were studied in 23 cystic fibrosis patients. Nasal polyps were diagnosed by nasal endoscopy and treated with topical steroids during 6 months, followed by a second nasal endoscopy. Fisher test was used for statistical analysis.ResultsNasal polyps were found in 39.1% of the patients (five bilateral, four unilateral), all older than six years, recurrent pneumonia in 82.6%, pancreatic insufficiency in 87% and malnutrition in 74%. No association was seen between nasal polyps and sweat chlorine level, genotype, clinical sings of severity and nasal symptoms. Seven patients improved in their nasal polyps with topical steroids, six showed complete resolution.ConclusionThe study showed a high incidence of nasal polyps in older children, who span the entire range of clinical severity, even in the absence of clinical nasal symptoms. Topical steroid therapy showed good results. An interaction among pediatricians and otolaryngologists is necessary for diagnosis and follow-up

Formação docente e projetos de sociedade

Este ensaio aplica a teoria do discurso (LACLEU; MOUFEE, 1985) na análise da profissionalização docente. Considera o debate sobre a delimitação da jurisdição da docência, ou seja, sobre o conjunto de conhecimentos e práticas requeridos para a aprendizagem do aluno; e que a análise do processo de construção de sentidos relacionada à docência constitui rico caminho de apreensão das mudanças sociais no campo da educação escolar. A recuperação do processo de construção dos sentidos em disputa ou negociados entre a comunidade acadêmica e a esfera governamental revela o quanto a profissionalização da docência no Brasil, remete, explicita ou implicitamente, à luta pela hegemonia de determinados projetos de sociedade e apenas secundariamente à delimitação de uma jurisdição específica

Update in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome in Children

SummaryThe prevalence of OSAS in children is 0.7-3%, with peak incidence in pre-schoolers. It is characterised by partial or complete upper airway obstruction during sleep, causing intermittent hypoxia. Both anatomical (severe nasal obstruction, craniofacial anomalies, hypertrophy of the pharyngeal lymphoid tissue, laryngeal anomalies, etc.) and functional factors (neuromuscular diseases) predispose to OSAS during childhood. The main cause of OSAS in children in adenotonsillar hypertrophy. The most common clinical manifestations of OSAS are: nocturnal snoring, respiratory pauses, restless sleep and mouth breathing. Nocturnal pulse oximetry, nocturnal noise audio/videotape recording and nap polysomnography are useful tools for screening suspected cases of OSAS in children, and the gold-standard for diagnosis is overnight polysomnography in the sleep laboratory. On the contrary of SAOS adults, children usually present: less arousals associated to apnea events, more numerous apneas/hypopneas during REM sleep, and more significant oxihemoglobin dessaturation even in short apneas. The treatment of OSAS may be surgical (adenotonsillectomy, craniofacial abnormalities correction, tracheostomy) or clinical (sleep hygiene, continuous positive airway pressure – CPAP)