Observational and Theoretical Investigation of Cylindrical Line Source Blast Theory Using Meteors

During their passage through the atmosphere meteoroids produce a hypersonic shock which may be recorded at the ground in the form of infrasound. The first objective of this project was to use global infrasound measurements to estimate the influx of large (meter/decameter) objects to Earth and investigate which parameters of their ablation and disruption can be determined using infrasound records. A second objective was to evaluate and extend existing cylindrical line source blast theory for meteoroids by combining new observations with earlier analytical models, and validate these against centimetre-sized optical meteor observations. The annual terrestrial influx of large meteoroids (kinetic energies above a threshold E) was found to be N=4.5E–0.6 where E is expressed in kilotons of TNT equivalent. This indicates that estimates of the influx derived from telescopic surveys of small asteroids near Earth are too low. Infrasound records from an event over Indonesia in 2009 were used to develop a technique to estimate the altitude of meteoroid terminal bursts and their energies. The burst altitude in this case was determined to be near 20 kilometers and the energy between 8 – 67 kilotons of TNT equivalent. Using a network of optical cameras and an Infrasound Array in southern Ontario, Canada, 71 centimetre-sized meteoroids were optically detected and associated with infrasonic signals recorded at the ground. The shock source height and its uncertainty along the meteor trail from raytracing was determined including wind effects due to gravity waves perturbations, which were found to be significant for such short range (km) infrasound propagation. Approximately 75% of signals were attributed to cylindrical line source geometry, while ray deviation angles greater than 117° were associated with spherical shocks. The ReVelle (1974) meteor infrasound model was found to be accurate when using infrasound period measurements, but systematically under-predicted blast radii when amplitude is used. The latter can be better modelled assuming the wave distortion distance is “\u3c6%, as opposed to the 10% adopted by ReVelle. Infrasonic masses found from ReVelle’s theory deviate from photometric estimates largely due to meteoroid fragmentation

On shock waves and the role of hyperthermal chemistry in the early diffusion of overdense meteor trains

Studies of meteor trails have until now been limited to relatively simple models, with the trail often being treated as a conducting cylinder, and the head (if considered at all) treated as a ball of ionized gas. In this article, we bring the experience gleaned from other fields to the domain of meteor studies, and adapt this prior knowledge to give a much clearer view of the microscale physics and chemistry involved in meteor-trail formation, with particular emphasis on the first 100 or so milliseconds of the trail formation. We discuss and examine the combined physicochemical effects of meteor-generated and ablationally amplified cylindrical shock waves that appear in the ambient atmosphere immediately surrounding the meteor train, as well as the associated hyperthermal chemistry on the boundaries of the high temperature post-adiabatically expanding meteor train. We demonstrate that the cylindrical shock waves produced by overdense meteors are sufficiently strong to dissociate molecules in the ambient atmosphere when it is heated to temperatures in the vicinity of 6000 K, which substantially alters the considerations of the chemical processes in and around the meteor train. We demonstrate that some ambient O-2, along with O-2 that comes from the shock dissociation of O-3, survives the passage of the cylindrical shock wave, and these constituents react thermally with meteor metal ions, thereby subsequently removing electrons from the overdense meteor train boundary through fast, temperature-independent, dissociative recombination governed by the second Damkohler number. Possible implications for trail diffusion and lifetimes are discussed.Peer reviewe

Evolution of the dust trail of comet 17P/Holmes

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s).The massive outburst of the comet 17P/Holmes in 2007 October is the largest known outburst by a comet thus far. We present a new comprehensive model describing the evolution of the dust trail produced in this phenomenon. The model comprises of multiparticle Monte Carlo simulation including the solar radiation pressure effects, gravitational disturbance caused by Venus, Earth and Moon, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, and gravitational interaction of the dust particles with the parent comet itself. Good accuracy of computations is achieved by its implementation in Orekit, which executes Dormad-Prince numerical integration methods with higher precision. We demonstrate performance of the model by simulating particle populations with sizes from 0.001 to 1 mm with corresponding spherically symmetric ejection speed distribution, and towards the Sun outburst modelling. The model is supplemented with and validated against the observations of the dust trail in common nodes for 0.5 and 1 revolutions. In all cases, the predicted trail position showed a good match to the observations. Additionally, the hourglass pattern of the trail was observed for the first time within this work. By using variations of the outburst model in our simulations, we determine that the assumption of the spherical symmetry of the ejected particles leads to the scenario compatible with the observed hourglass pattern. Using these data, we make predictions for the two-revolution dust trail behaviour near the outburst point that should be detectable by using ground-based telescopes in 2022.Peer reviewe

Physically based alternative to the PE criterion for meteoroids

Meteoroids impacting the Earth atmosphere are commonly classified using the PE criterion. This criterion was introduced to support the identification of the fireball type by empirically linking its orbital origin and composition characteristics. Additionally, it is used as an indicator of the meteoroid tensile strength and its ability to penetrate the atmosphere. However, the level of classification accuracy of the PE criterion depends on the ability to constrain the value of the input data, retrieved from the fireball observation, required to derive the PE value. To overcome these uncertainties and achieve a greater classification detail, we propose a new formulation using scaling laws and dimensionless variables that groups all the input variables into two parameters that are directly obtained from the fireball observations. These two parameters, alpha and beta, represent the drag and the mass-loss rates along the luminous part of the trajectory, respectively, and are linked to the shape, strength, ablation efficiency, mineralogical nature of the projectile, and duration of the fireball. Thus, the new formulation relies on a physical basis. This work shows the mathematical equivalence between the PE criterion and the logarithm of 2 alpha beta under the same PE criterion assumptions. We demonstrate that log(2 alpha beta) offers a more general formulation that does not require any preliminary constraint on the meteor flight scenario and discuss the suitability of the new formulation for expanding the classification beyond fully disintegrating fireballs to larger impactors including meteorite-dropping fireballs. The reliability of the new formulation is validated using the Prairie Network meteor observations.Peer reviewe

Projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate

Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations