Credit and banking in a DSGE model of the euro area

This paper studies the role of credit-supply factors in business cycle fluctuations. For this purpose, we introduce an imperfectly competitive banking sector into a DSGE model with financial frictions. Banks issue collateralized loans to both households and firms, obtain funding via deposits and accumulate capital from retained earnings. Margins charged on loans depend on bank capital-to-assets ratios and on the degree of interest rate stickiness. Bank balance-sheet constraints establish a link between the business cycle, which affects bank profits and thus capital, and the supply and cost of loans. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using data for the euro area. The analysis delivers the following results. First, the existence of a banking sector partially attenuates the effects of demand shocks, while it helps propagate supply shocks. Second, shocks originating in the banking sector explain the largest share of the fall of output in 2008 in the euro area, while macroeconomic shocks played a limited role. Third, an unexpected destruction of bank capital has a substantial impact on the real economy and particularly on investment.collateral constraints, banks, banking capital, sticky interest rates

Design and performance of ropes for climbing and sailing

Ropes are an important part of the equipment used by climbers, mountaineers, and sailors. On first inspection, most modern polymer ropes appear similar, and it might be assumed that their designs, construction, and properties are governed by the same requirements. In reality, the properties required of climbing ropes are dominated by the requirement that they effectively absorb and dissipate the energy of the falling climber, in a manner that it does not transmit more than a critical amount of force to his body. This requirement is met by the use of ropes with relatively low longitudinal stiffness. In contrast, most sailing ropes require high stiffness values to maximize their effectiveness and enable sailors to control sails and equipment precisely. These conflicting requirements led to the use of different classes of materials and different construction methods for the two sports. This paper reviews in detail the use of ropes, the properties required, manufacturing techniques and materials utilized, and the effect of service conditions on the performance of ropes. A survey of research that has been carried out in the field reveals what progress has been made in the development of these essential components and identifies where further work may yield benefits in the future

Network measures in civil air transport: A case study of Lufthansa

Network analysis has already a long history in operations research and quantitative social science research. In the past, much attention has been paid to shortest-route algorithms (for example, the travelling salesman problem), where the spatial configuration of networks was put in the centre of empirical investigation. Integer programming, linear and nonlinear programming turned out to offer a proper analytical toolbox. In recent years, we have seen several new trends, in particular, the rise of hub-and-spoke systems in liberalized networks, the emergence of dynamic adjustments to new competitive conditions and the increase in complexity in international networks. Furthermore, it appears that in the past decades many social, spatial and economic systems show an organized pattern characterized by network features, such as transportation, telecommunication, information or energy systems. As a consequence, much attention has recently been paid to the study of network properties emerging in many social, spatial and economic fields, as witnessed by the vast amount of literature published in the past years. Air transport is a prominent example of modern network constellations and will be addressed in this paper from a connectivity perspective. Air transport shows indeed clear network features, which impact on the way single airline carriers operate. The abundant scientific literature on airline networks has addressed this topic in terms of theoretical modelling and empirical measurements on different typologies of airline network configurations. This strand of recent research aimed to measure the network structure in relation to the effects of: (a) the market deregulation in United States in 1978 and in the European Union in the 1990s, (b) new trends in recent airline business strategies denoted as \u2018low cost\u2019 principles. Low cost carriers developed rather fast after the deregulation policy, by acquiring a competitive network advantage on traditional airlines, which consequently seemed to reorganise rapidly their airline network to respond to the new market dynamics. In this context, interesting research has emerged that mainly addressed the issue of describing and classifying networks by means of geographical concentration indices of traffic or flight frequency. These measures, such as the Gini concentration index or the Theil index, provide a proper measure of frequency or traffic concentration of the main airports in a simple, well-organized network. However, if a real-world network structure is complex, including multi-hub or mixed point-to-point and hub-spokes connections, the concentration indices may record high values for all types of structure, but fail to clearly discriminate between different network shapes. There is a need for a more appropriate measurement of connectivity structures in complex networks. Starting from the above considerations and research challenges, the present paper aims to investigate the scientific potential and applicability of a series of network connectivity/concentration indices, in order to properly typify and map out complex airline network configurations. Specifically, these various network indicators will be adopted and tested to describe the main properties \u2013 in terms of the network connectivity and configuration \u2013 of Lufthansa\u2019s airline system

Credit demand and supply in Italy during the financial crisis

The paper analyzes developments in bank lending in Italy during the financial crisis, assessing the relative contribution of demand and supply factors to lending deceleration. We find that the slowdown in lending was mainly due to a reduction in demand. For households, this can be attributed to the weakness of the real estate market and to the fall in consumption; for firms, a diminution in financing needs, due in turn to the sharp contraction of investment. Credit market indicators and empirical studies suggest that lending growth may also have been curbed by tensions in credit supply. These tensions mainly reflected the increase in borrower risk, as well as the impact of the crisis – especially in its first phase – on banks’ capital, liquidity, and ability to access external funding. Econometric analyses corroborate these indications, suggesting that the overall impact of banks’ conditions on the lending slowdown was modest. Over the next few months, supply tensions could persist, but the risk of a limitation of credit will be moderated by the economic recovery and the consequent reduction in borrower default risk. There will also be support from public interventions, which have provided financial support to firms, improving their creditworthiness, and strengthened banks’ capital and liquidity position.credit demand and supply, financial crisis, Italian economy.

An assessment of financial sector rescue programmes

We analyse the wide array of rescue programmes adopted in several countries, following Lehman Brothers’ default in September 2008, in order to support banks and other financial institutions. We first provide an overview of the programmes, comparing their characteristics, magnitudes and participation rates across countries. We then consider the effects of the programmes on banks’ risk and valuation, looking at the behaviour of CDS premia and stock prices. We then proceed to analyse the issuance of government guaranteed bonds by banks, examining their impact on banks’ funding and highlighting undesired effects and distortions. Finally, we briefly review the recent evolution of bank lending to the private sector. We draw policy implications, in particular as regards the way of mitigating the distortions implied by such programmes and the need for an exit strategy.bank asset guarantees, capital injection, banks, financial sector, financial crisis, bank consolidation, bank mergers and acquisitions, event studies, government guaranteed bonds, credit crunch, exit strategy

The surgical treatment of pituitary adenomas in the eighth decade

BACKGROUND The surgical treatment of pituitary adenomas in elderly patients (i.e., over 70 years of age) is a special problem because of the increased rate of perioperative complications and the reduced tolerance of postoperative fluid and electrolyte imbalance. Therefore, the unquestionable progress in the pharmacological and radiotherapy may not allow these patients the option of radical surgical treatment, We report our experience with the transsphenoidal procedure for pituitary adenomas in aged patients in an attempt to contribute to a better definition of the actual role of surgery. METHODS Transsphenoidal surgery was performed in 11 patients over 70 years of age affected by various histological types of pituitary micro- and macroadenomas, ranging from Hardy Grade I through IIIc, Special care was dedicated to the postoperative treatment, in particular to water and electrolyte balances, and to the immediate treatment of any pathological variation of these parameters. RESULTS We had no mortality and no postoperative adjunctive morbidity, All the patients recovered well from the operation with an average hospital stay of 20 days. The tumor removal was complete in six cases and partial in the remaining five. With an average follow-up of 2 years, we did observe only one case of symptomatic recurrence of the disease. CONCLUSIONS Transsphenoidal surgery in the elderly is feasible and quite safe in the hands of an experienced team, if special care is devoted to the preoperative selection of patients and to the postoperative treatment of fluid and electrolyte imbalanc

The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions

The financial crisis and the ensuing recession have caused a sharp deterioration in public finances across advanced economies, raising investor concerns about sovereign risk. The concerns have so far mainly affected the euro area, where some countries have seen their credit ratings downgraded during 2009−11 and their funding costs rise sharply. Other countries have also been affected, but to a much lesser extent. Greater sovereign risk is already having adverse effects on banks and financial markets. Looking forward, sovereign risk concerns may affect a broad range of countries. In advanced economies, government debt levels are expected to rise over coming years, due to high fiscal deficits and rising pension and health care costs. In emerging economies, vulnerability to external shocks and political instability may have periodic adverse effects on sovereign risk. Overall, risk premia on government debt will likely be higher and more volatile than in the past. In some countries, sovereign debt has already lost its risk-free status; in others, it may do so in the future. The challenge for authorities is to minimise the negative consequences for bank funding and the flow-on effects on the real economy. This report outlines the impact of sovereign risk concerns on the cost and availability of bank funding over recent years. It then describes the channels through which sovereign risk affects bank funding. The last section summarises the main conclusions and discusses some implications for banks and the official sector. Two caveats are necessary before discussing the main findings. First, the analysis focuses on causality going from sovereigns to banks, as is already the case in some countries, and, looking forward, is a possible scenario for other economies. But causality may clearly also go from banks to sovereigns. However, even in this second case, sovereign risk eventually acquires its own dynamics and compounds the problems of the banking sector. Second, the report examines the link between sovereign risk and bank funding in general terms, based on recent experience and research. It does not assess actual sovereign risk and its impact on bank stability in individual countries at the present juncture.Sovereign debt; banks; financial turmoil

Atratividade de Bucephalogonia xanthophis (Cicadellidae) por voláteis de seu hospedeiro atural Vernonia condensata (Asteraceae)

Plant volatiles are important cues for the orientation of herbivorous insects. It is possible that these compounds indicate whether the plant is suitable for feeding and larval development, or for mating aggregation. Vernonia condensata (Asteraceae) is known to attract species of leafhoppers, most of them important vectors of the citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC). In this study, we evaluated the role of volatiles of V. condensata on the orientation of Bucephalogonia xanthophis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae). Four-arm olfactometer bioassays showed that only males were attracted to the volatiles of the host-plants Citrus sp. and V. condensata. Furthermore, fresh leaves of V. condensata induced a stronger response than volatiles from hexane-extracted leaves. This study opens the possibility to utilize V. condensata volatiles for pest management programs of B. xanthopis.Os voláteis de plantas são sinais importantes para a orientação de insetos herbívoros. É possível que esses compostos indiquem que a planta é apropriada para alimentação e desenvolvimento larval, ou para agrupamento reprodutivo. Vernonia condensata (Asteraceae) atrai espécies de cigarrinhas, muitas delas vetores da clorose variegada dos citros (CVC). Neste trabalho, foi avaliado o papel dos voláteis de V. condensata na orientação de Bucephalogonia xanthophis (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae). Bioensaios em olfatômetro de quatro braços mostraram que somente os machos foram atraídos pelos voláteis das plantas hospedeiras Citrus sp. e V. condensata, sendo que os voláteis das folhas frescas de V. condensata induziram uma maior resposta quando comparada aos extratos hexânicos da planta. A possibilidade de usar os voláteis de V. condensata abre novas perspectivas para programas e alternativas para o manejo de pragas.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP

Cox-2 Inhibition Enhances the Activity of Sunitinib in Human Renal Cell Carcinoma Xenografts

Background: Sunitinib (Su), a tyrosine kinase inhibitor of VEGFR, is effective at producing tumour response in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (cRCC), but resistance to therapy is inevitable. As COX-2 is a known mediator of tumour growth, we explored the potential benefit of COX-2 inhibition in combination with VEGFR inhibition in attempts at delaying tumour progression on Su. Methods: COX-2 expression was compared with areas of hypoxia in tumours that progressed on Su vs untreated tumours. Mice bearing human cRCC xenografts were treated with Su and the COX-2 inhibitor, celecoxib, and the effects on tumour growth were assessed. Sequential vs concurrent regimens were compared. Results: COX-2 expression was increased in cRCC xenografts in areas of tumour hypoxia. The combination of Su and celecoxib achieved longer times to tumour progression compared to treatment with either agent alone or to untreated control animals in four models. This effect was seen with concurrent but not with sequential therapy. Conclusion: COX-2 inhibition can extend the effectiveness of VEGFR inhibition. This effect is dependent on the timing of therapy. Clinical trials combining Su and COX-2 inhibitors should be considered as a means delaying time to progression on sunitinib in patients with metastatic cRCC

Screening for pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals

Abstract Introduction: Surveillance programs on high-risk individuals (HRIs) can detect premalignant lesions or early pancreatic cancer (PC). We report the results of the first screening round of the Italian multicenter program supported by the Italian Association for the study of the Pancreas (AISP). Methods: The multicenter surveillance program included asymptomatic HRIs with familial (FPC) or genetic frailty (GS: BRCA1/2, p16/CDKN2A, STK11/LKB1 and PRSS1) predisposition to PC. The surveillance program included at least an annual magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP). Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) was proposed to patients who refused or could not be submitted to MRCP. Results: One-hundreds eighty-seven HRIs underwent a first-round screening examination with MRCP (174;93.1%) or EUS (13;6.9%) from September 2015 to March 2018.The mean age was 51 years (range 21-80).One-hundreds sixty-five (88.2%) FPC and 22 (11.8%) GF HRIs were included. MRCP detected 27 (21.9%) presumed branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), 1 invasive carcinoma/IPMN and one low-grade mixed-type IPMN, respectively. EUS detected 4 PC (2.1%): 1 was resected, 1 was found locally advanced intraoperatively and 2 were metastatic. Age>50 (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-8), smoking habit (OR 2.8, 95%CI 1.1-7.5), and having >2 relatives with PC (OR 2.7, 95%CI 1.1-6.4) were independently associated with detection of pre-malignant and malignant lesions. The diagnostic yield for MRCP/EUS was 20.3% for cystic lesions. The overall rate of surgery was 2.6% with nil mortality. Discussion: The rate of malignancies found in this cohort was high (2.6%). According to the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium the screening goal achievement was high (1%).ABSTRACT Background: Data on surveillance for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in high-risk individuals (HRIs) with “familiar pancreatic cancer” (FPC) and specific syndromes are limited and heterogeneous. Objective: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of PDAC surveillance studies. Methods: Prevalence of solid/cystic pancreatic lesions and of lesions considered a successful target of surveillance (proven resectable PDAC and high-grade precursors) was pooled across studies. The rate of lesions diagnosed by EUS/MRI and across different HRIs groups were calculated. Results: Sixteen studies incorporating 1588 HRIs included. The pooled prevalence of pancreatic solid and cystic lesions was 5.8% and 20.2%, respectively. The pooled prevalence of patients with lesions considered a successful target of surveillance was 3.3%, being similar with EUS or MRI and varied across subgroups, being 3% in FPC, 4% in hereditary pancreatitis, 5% in familiar melanoma, 6.3% in hereditary breast/ovarian cancer and 12.2% in Peutz Jeghers. The pooled estimate rate of lesions considered a successful target of surveillance during follow-up was 5/1000 person-years. Conclusion: Surveillance programs identifiy successful target lesions in 3.3% of HRIs with similar yield of EUS and MRI and an annual risk of 0.5%. A higher rate of target lesions was reported in HRIs with specific DNA mutations.Background and Aims: Different pancreatic abnormalities (e.g. chronic pancreatitis like features, cystic lesions, solid lesions) have been reported in in high-risk individuals (HRIs) with “familiar pancreatic cancer” (FPC) and specific syndromes undergoing surveillance protocols for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Previous studies compared pancreatic parenchymal alterations detected by endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) in HRIs to those seen in controls reporting that abnormal changes occur more frequently in HRIs than in controls. However, while magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with Magnetic Resonance Cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) is the most frequently employed method for HRI surveillance, no studies compared the rate of abnormal pancreatic finding in HRIs investigated by MRI/MRCP to those seen in controls. We therefore conducted a case-control study enrolling HRIs who underwent surveillance with MRI/MRCP and controls without pancreatic disorders to compare the rate and type of pancreatic abnormalities. Methods: A single-centre case control study was conducted. Cases were HRIs meeting the CAPS criteria who underwent surveillance for the risk of pancreatic cancer and controls were consecutive patients undergoing MRI/MRCP for benign biliary disease without history of pancreatic disorders. The rate of pancreatic findings was compared with Fisher extact test and logistic regression analysis was performed to examine factors associated with pancreatic findings. Results: 28 HRIs and 26 controls were included in the study. HRIs were subjects belonging to FPC families (70%), Peutz-Jeghers syndrome (14%), familial atypical multiple mole melanoma syndrome (7%) , BRCA1/2 mutation carriers (7%) . Cases and controls did not differ in terms of sex distribution and age (male 50% vs 53.6, p=0.5; mean age 55.6 vs 59.6 years p = 0.1). The overall rate of any pancreatic abnormality was similar between cases and controls (64.3% vs 53.8%; p=0.58) and parenchymal atrophy was the most common abnormal finding (32% vs 38%, p= 0.8). Branch-duct IPMNs were diagnosed in 25% of cases and 23% of controls (p= 1)(mean diameter 6.4 vs 5 mm respectively). Notably, however, at the first year of follow-up two further HRIs were diagnosed with IPMNs, bringing this rate to 32%. Conclusion: The rate of pancreatic changes observed in HRIs at the first round of surveillance with MRI/MRCP does not differ from that of controls. Most abnormalities do not have clinical significance, the most common being parenchymal atrophy and small BD-IPMNs without worrisome features. These results differ from those previously reported regarding EUS, possibly suggesting that EUS might diagnose more frequently subtle pancreatic changes as compared to MRI in HRIs.Background & Aims: Pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are frequent incidental findings. As most PCLs require costly diagnostic evaluation and active surveillance, it is important to clarify their prevalence in asymptomatic individuals. We therefore aimed at performing a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine it. Methods: a systematic search was conducted and studies meeting inclusion criteria were included. The prevalence of PCLs was pooled across studies. A random effect model was used with assessment of heterogeneity. Results: 17 studies, with 48,860 patients, were included. Only 3 were prospective; 5 studies were conducted in the US, 7 in Europe, 4 in Asia and 1 in Brazil. The pooled prevalence of PCLs was 8% (95% CI 4-14) with considerable heterogeneity (I2=99.5%). This prevalence was higher in studies of higher quality, examining older subjects, smaller cohorts, and employing MRCP (24.8% vs 2.7% with CT-scan). The pooled rate of PCLs was four times higher in studies conducted in the US than in Asia (12.6% vs 3.1%). 7 studies reported the prevalence of mucinous lesions, with a pooled rate of 4.3% (95% CI 2-10; I2=99.2%), but of 0.7% only for worrisome features or high risk stigmata. Conclusion: The rate of incidentally detected PCLs is of 8%. Mucinous lesions are the most common incidentally detected PCLs, although they rarely present with potential indication for surgery. The observed different rates in the US and other geographic Areas suggest that different protocols might be necessary to help balancing costs and effectiveness of follow-up investigations in asymptomatic subject