162 research outputs found

    Timing and cost of scaling up surgical services in low-income and middle-income countries from 2012 to 2030 : a modelling study

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    Background: Given the large burden of surgical conditions and the crosscutting nature of surgery, scale-up of basic surgical services is crucial to health-system strengthening. The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery proposed that, to meet populations' needs, countries should achieve 5000 major operations per 100 000 population per year. We modelled the possible scale-up of surgical services in 88 low-income and middle-income countries with a population greater than 1 million from 2012 to 2030 at various rates and quantified the associated costs. Methods: Major surgery includes any intervention within an operating room involving tissue manipulation and anaesthesia. We used estimates for the number of major operations achieved per country annually and the number of operating rooms per region, and data from Mongolia and Mexico for trends in the number of operations. Unit costs included a cost per operation, proxied by caesarean section cost estimates; hospital construction data were used to estimate cost per operating room construction. We determined the year by which each country would achieve the Commission's target. We modelled three scenarios for the scale-up rate: actual rates (5·1% per year) and two "aspirational" rates, the rates achieved by Mongolia (8·9% annual) and Mexico (22·5% annual). We subsequently estimated the associated costs. Findings: About half of the 88 countries would achieve the target by 2030 at actual rates of improvements, with up to two-thirds if the rate were increased to Mongolian rates. We estimate the total costs of achieving scale-up at US$300-420 billion (95% UI 190-600 billion) over 2012-30, which represents 4-8% of total annual health expenditures among low-income and lower middle-income countries and 1% among upper middle-income countries. Interpretation: Scale-up of surgical services will not reach the target of 5000 operations per 100 000 by 2030 in about half of low-income and middle-income countries without increased funding, which countries and the international community must seek to achieve expansion of quality surgical services

    Global access to surgical care: a modelling study

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    Background More than 2 billion people are unable to receive surgical care based on operating theatre density alone. The vision of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery is universal access to safe, aff ordable surgical and anaesthesia care when needed. We aimed to estimate the number of individuals worldwide without access to surgical services as defi ned by the Commission’s vision. Methods We modelled access to surgical services in 196 countries with respect to four dimensions: timeliness, surgical capacity, safety, and aff ordability. We built a chance tree for each country to model the probability of surgical access with respect to each dimension, and from this we constructed a statistical model to estimate the proportion of the population in each country that does not have access to surgical services. We accounted for uncertainty with oneway sensitivity analyses, multiple imputation for missing data, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Findings At least 4·8 billion people (95% posterior credible interval 4·6–5·0 [67%, 64–70]) of the world’s population do not have access to surgery. The proportion of the population without access varied widely when stratifi ed by epidemiological region: greater than 95% of the population in south Asia and central, eastern, and western sub- Saharan Africa do not have access to care, whereas less than 5% of the population in Australasia, high-income North America, and western Europe lack access. Interpretation Most of the world’s population does not have access to surgical care, and access is inequitably distributed. The near absence of access in many low-income and middle-income countries represents a crisis, and as the global health community continues to support the advancement of universal health coverage, increasing access to surgical services will play a central role in ensuring health care for all

    Health gains and fi nancial risk protection aff orded by public fi nancing of selected interventions in Ethiopia: an extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis

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    Background The way in which a government chooses to fi nance a health intervention can aff ect the uptake of health interventions and consequently the extent of health gains. In addition to health gains, some policies such as public fi nance can insure against catastrophic health expenditures. We aimed to evaluate the health and fi nancial risk protection benefi ts of selected interventions that could be publicly fi nanced by the government of Ethiopia. Methods We used extended cost-eff ectiveness analysis to assess the health gains (deaths averted) and fi nancial risk protection aff orded (cases of poverty averted) by a bundle of nine (among many other) interventions that the Government of Ethiopia aims to make universally available. These nine interventions were measles vaccination, rotavirus vaccination, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination, diarrhoea treatment, malaria treatment, pneumonia treatment, caesarean section surgery, hypertension treatment, and tuberculosis treatment. Findings Our analysis shows that, per dollar spent by the Ethiopian Government, the interventions that avert the most deaths are measles vaccination (367 deaths averted per 100000spent),pneumococcalconjugatevaccination(170deathsavertedper100 000 spent), pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (170 deaths averted per 100 000 spent), and caesarean section surgery (141 deaths averted per 100000spent).Theinterventionsthatavertthemostcasesofpovertyarecaesareansectionsurgery(98casesavertedper100 000 spent). The interventions that avert the most cases of poverty are caesarean section surgery (98 cases averted per 100 000 spent), tuberculosis treatment (96 cases averted per 100000spent),andhypertensiontreatment(84casesavertedper100 000 spent), and hypertension treatment (84 cases averted per 100 000 spent). Interpretation Our approach incorporates fi nancial risk protection into the economic evaluation of health interventions and therefore provides information about the effi ciency of attainment of both major objectives of a health system: improved health and fi nancial risk protection. One intervention might rank higher on one or both metrics than another, which shows how intervention choice—the selection of a pathway to universal health coverage—might involve weighing up of sometimes competing objectives. This understanding can help policy makers to select interventions to target specifi c policy goals (ie, improved health or fi nancial risk protection). It is especially relevant for the design and sequencing of universal health coverage to meet the needs of poor populations

    Decentralization and Regionalization of Surgical Care: A Review of Evidence for the Optimal Distribution of Surgical Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

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    Background: While recommendations for the optimal distribution of surgical services in high-income countries (HICs) exist, it is unclear how these translate to resource-limited settings. Given the significant shortage and maldistribution of surgical workforce and infrastructure in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the optimal role of decentralization versus regionalization (centralization) of surgical care is unknown. The aim of this study is to review evidence around interventions aimed at redistributing surgical services in LMICs, to guide recommendations for the ideal organization of surgical services.Methods: A narrative-based literature review was conducted to answer this question. Studies published in English between 1997 and 2017 in PubMed, describing interventions to decentralize or regionalize a surgical procedure in a LMIC, were included. Procedures were selected using the Disease Control Priorities’ (DCP3) Essential Surgery Package list. Intervention themes and outcomes were analyzed using a narrative, thematic synthesis approach. Primary outcomes included mortality, complications, and patient satisfaction. Secondary outcomes included input measures: workforce and infrastructure, and process measures: facility-based care, surgical volume, and referral rates.Results: Thirty-five studies were included. Nine (33%) of the 27 studies describing decentralization showed an improvement in primary outcomes. The procedures associated with improved outcomes after decentralization included most obstetric, gynecological, and family planning services as well as some minor general surgery procedures. Out of 8 studies on regionalization (centralization), improved outcomes were shown for trauma care in one study and cataract extraction in one study.Conclusion: Interventions aimed at decentralizing obstetric care to the district hospital and health center levels have resulted in mortality benefits in several countries. However, more evidence is needed to link service distribution to patient outcomes in order to provide recommendations for the optimal organization of other surgical procedures in LMICs. Considerations for the optimal distribution of surgical procedures should include the acuity of the condition for which the procedure is indicated, anticipated case volume, and required level of technical skills, resources, and infrastructure. These attributes should be considered within the context of each country

    Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report

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    Background Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define—for the first time—the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. Methods and findings The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries—who only made up 21% of the total attendees. Conclusions To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators—at the basic level—should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.publishedVersio
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