Conditional models for spatial extremes

Extreme environmental events endanger human life and cause serious damage to property and infrastructure. For example, Storm Desmond (2015) caused approximately £500m of damage in Lancashire and Cumbria, UK from high winds and flooding, while Storm Britta (2006) damaged shipping vessels and offshore structures in the southern North Sea, and led to coastal flooding. Estimating the probability of the occurrence of such events is key in designing structures and infrastructure that are able to withstand their impacts. Due to the rarity of these events, extreme value theory techniques are used for inference. This thesis focusses on developing novel spatial extreme value methods motivated by applications to significant wave height in the North Sea and north Atlantic, and extreme precipitation for the Netherlands. We develop methodology for analysing the dependence structure of significant wave height by utilising spatial conditional extreme value methods. Since the dependence structure of extremes between locations is likely to be complicated, with contributing factors including distance and covariates, we model dependence flexibly; otherwise, the incorrect assumption on the dependence between sites may lead to inaccurate estimation of the probabilities of spatial extreme events occurring. Existing methods for spatial extremes typically assume a particular form of extremal dependence termed asymptotic dependence, and often have intractable forms for describing the dependence of joint events over large numbers of locations. The model developed here overcomes these deficiencies. Moreover, the estimation of joint probabilities across sites under both asymptotic independence and asymptotic dependence, the two limiting extremal dependence classes, is possible with our model; this is not the case with other methods. We propose a method for the estimation of marginal extreme precipitation quantiles, utilising a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model. Our model parameters incorporate an autoregressive prior distribution, and use spatial interpolation to pool information on model parameters across neighbouring sites

Suggestions for Data Collection at Outdoor Recreation Sites

Survey research relies on sampling techniques that require data collectors to ask potential respondents to participate in their studies. This type of data collection occurs primarily through the mediums of mailed cover letters, telephone solicitation, email requests, Web sites, and face-to-face encounters. The purpose of this data collection guide is to provide direct, practical ideas for collecting survey data at recreation sites. A theoretical background provides a framework that is followed by specific suggestions for gaining the cooperation of respondents and collecting survey data

Cross-cultural transition, coping, and social support: relationships among psychological outcomes among British Migrants in Australia

This review examines the relationships among coping strategies, social support, and migrant adjustment. Research suggests that due to losses of the homeland, such as loss of family, friends and community, and adjustment difficulties in the new country, migration can be a difficult experience. Several key findings in the literature however, revealed that particular coping strategies and social support are two key factors that can ameliorate the negative effects of migration. Research has typically found an association between coping strategies and psychological outcomes, such that, problem-focused or active coping strategies, whereby migrants take direct action to solve the problem, are typically associated with better psychological outcomes. Social support has also been found to predict better psychological outcomes. Several limitations were also evident in the literature which included both methodological and measurement issues. The most prominent limitation is that the majority of the research has been conducted among non-English speaking background (NESB) immigrants that have relocated to an English speaking background (ESB) country, whilst there is a paucity of research on the stress-coping/social support relationship among ESB migrants who have relocated to an ESB country. Therefore, further research is required to determine the moderating effects of coping strategies and social support within these immigrant populations. This research aimed to examine the relationships among coping strategies, social support and psychological outcomes among a sample of 98 British migrants who had settled in Perth, Western Australia. A cross-sectional survey design was used with a self-report methodology. The COPE scale was utilised to measure coping strategies, whilst the Profile of Mood States and Zung Self-Rating Depression Scale assessed depressed/negative moo6\u27 and depression, respectively. Participants were recruited through volunteer sampling and snowball sampling. Correlational analyses and hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to investigate statistical relations between coping styles and psychological outcomes. Consistent with previous research, the findings revealed that the avoidant coping strategy of denial was a significant predictor of depression and depressed mood. Contrary to the literature active coping and social support were not found to predict either depression or depressed mood. Limitations of the study are considered, and avenues for future research are suggested

MAKING SENSE OF THE WORLD: AN INTERVIEW WITH DAVID KRANTZ

David L. Krantz is Professor of Psychology at Lake Forest College. A Fromer Fellow at the Center for Advanced Studies in Behavioral Science, be has published articles and books in the social psychology of science and topic related to power, knowing, and life's meaning. He recently completed a book tentatively titled journays and Destinations: Searching for life's Meanings while a Visiting Professor at the University of Ghent, Belgium

Expression of apolipoprotein E by cultured vascular smooth muscle cells is controlled by growth state.

Rat vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) in culture synthesize and secrete a approximately 38,000-Mr protein doublet or triplet that, as previously described (Majack and Bornstein. 1984. J. Cell Biol. 99:1688-1695), rapidly and reversibly accumulates in the SMC culture medium upon addition of heparin. In the present study, we show that this approximately 38,000-Mr heparin-regulated protein is electrophoretically and immunologically identical to apolipoprotein E (apo-E), a major plasma apolipoprotein involved in cholesterol transport. In addition, we show that expression of apo-E by cultured SMC varies according to growth state: while proliferating SMC produced little apo-E and expressed low levels of apo-E mRNA, quiescent SMC produced significantly more apo-E (relative to other proteins) and expressed markedly increased levels of apo-E mRNA. Northern analysis of RNA extracted from aortic tissue revealed that fully differentiated, quiescent SMC contain significant quantities of apo-E mRNA. These data establish aortic SMC as a vascular source for apo-E and suggest new functional roles for this apolipoprotein, possibly unrelated to traditional concepts of lipid metabolism

The Importance of Trust in Outdoor Education: Exploring the Relationship between Trust in Outdoor Leaders and Developmental Outcomes

Recent studies have acknowledged the influence of the leader in the outdoor education process and have illuminated the need for strong interpersonal relationships between participants and leaders. Developing interpersonal trust is one among many ways that leaders can promote such positive interpersonal relationships between themselves and participants. Transdisciplinary literature suggests that trust in a leader can predict outcomes that are important to outdoor education. This study found a positive relationship between trust in outdoor leaders and the course outcomes of leadership development and outdoor skills development among students of National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) courses. Implications for program implementation and theory development are discussed

Factors Influencing Particpants\u27 Trust in Outdoor Organizations and Outdoor Leaders

Trust plays a critical role in the field of outdoor education. The building of trust among participants is a common goal of outdoor educators (Honchalk, 1982; Smith, Roland, Hanes, & Hoyt, 1992; Fox & Mick, 1996) and 1s believed to influence learning outcomes (Rotter, 1967). The absence of trust in one\u27s leader may result in unrealized goals and lack of productivity (Kramer & Cook, 2004 ). The purpose of the current study was to explore, through action research, how trust is established between consumers and outdoor organizations and between participants in outdoor programs and their outdoor leaders. The identification of possible determinants of trust benefits both practitioner and organization by providing a list of positive and negative behaviors that may influence both interpersonal and organizational trust development and retention

100 Years of the National Research Council: A Critical Examination of Judicial References to Forensic Science NAS Reports

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is the leading advisor to the United States federal government on matters of science and technology. Since its creation in 1863, it has developed a diverse portfolio of scientific research. One area that the NAS – and its research body, the National Research Council (NRC) – has undertaken considerable research on is forensic science. Between 1992 and 2009, six seminal reports were published: DNA Technology in Forensic Science (1992); The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence (1996); The Polygraph and Lie Detection (2003); Forensic Analysis: Weighing Bullet Lead Evidence (2004); Ballistic Imaging (2008); and Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward (2008). Each has critically engaged with forensic science techniques, highlighted scientific progress, and received considerable engagement from the criminal justice system. Despite extensive study, there remains a gap discussing how these reports have interplayed with the criminal justice system and the wider legal process norms that govern its actors, admissibility decisions, and consideration of constitutional issues. This thesis seeks to investigate judicial reference to these NAS reports through a comprehensive study of judicial decision-making. It aims to fill gaps left by existing literature through answering the following questions: • How many times have each of the six NAS reports been referenced in criminal appellate decisions across the United States? • In what types of legal claims are the NAS reports referenced? • What is the purpose of the reference to the NAS report(s) within the judgment? • How does judicial decision-making referencing the forensic science NAS reports reflect legal process values? This thesis finds 644 decisions referencing these reports. These decisions reflect fidelity to the legal process vision through four principles: the dominance of precedent; deference to institutional settlement; pursuit of finality; and fidelity to the rationality assumption. Findings also raise questions about the relationship between law and science. The author concludes that legal cultural norms and scientific progress can be reconciled through developing legal actors’ forensic science knowledge, facilitated by the NAS

A KINEMATIC DESCRIPTION OF THE POST PUBESCENT WINDMILL SOFTBALL PITCHING MOTION

The purpose of this study was to describe the kinematics of the windmill softball pitch. Throughout the first three phases of the movement, both the pelvis and the trunk were rotated to a closed position while the throwing shoulder was flexed and externally rotated, and the throwing elbow was flexed. During the latter stages of the movement, the pelvis and torso opened up to face the plate, the throwing shoulder moved through an arc of hyperextension and was internally rotated while the throwing elbow extended. The kinematics identified may contribute to overuse injuries commonly reported by post pubescent softball pitchers. However, due to the limited data describing the windmill softball pitch, addition research is needed

On spatial conditional extremes for ocean storm severity

We describe a model for the conditional dependence of a spatial process measured at one or more remote locations given extreme values of the process at a conditioning location, motivated by the conditional extremes methodology of Heffernan and Tawn. Compared to alternative descriptions in terms of max‐stable spatial processes, the model is advantageous because it is conceptually straightforward and admits different forms of extremal dependence (including asymptotic dependence and asymptotic independence). We use the model within a Bayesian framework to estimate the extremal dependence of ocean storm severity (quantified using significant wave height, HS) for locations on spatial transects with approximate east–west (E‐W) and north–south (N‐S) orientations in the northern North Sea (NNS) and central North Sea (CNS). For HS on the standard Laplace marginal scale, the conditional extremes “linear slope” parameter α decays approximately exponentially with distance for all transects. Furthermore, the decay of mean dependence with distance is found to be faster in CNS than NNS. The persistence of mean dependence is greatest for the E‐W transect in NNS, potentially because this transect is approximately aligned with the direction of propagation of the most severe storms in the region